IRR 股息折現公式是計算投資報酬率唯一正確的公式，
它完整的把未來的股息和賣出價考慮進來。
The IRR dividend-discount formula is the only correct formula for calculating an investment’s rate of return. It fully takes into account both future dividends and the eventual selling price.
其它的算法都是錯的，
這幾年流行的現金殖利率是錯的算法，
因為只算到第一年的股息。
現金殖利率=股息/股價
中碳2003年殖利率7%，
我8年抱下來賺6倍，IRR為 31%。
Other methods of calculation are simply wrong. The cash dividend yield that has become popular in recent years is a flawed method because it only looks at the first year’s dividend.
Cash dividend yield = Dividend / Stock Price
In 2003, China Steel Chemical (1723) had a dividend yield of 7%. I held it for eight years and made six times my original investment, with an IRR of 31%.
現金殖利率跟實際報酬率差很多，可能造成誤判，
把貴了誤以為仍然便宜。
200元的中碳按盈再表清楚顯示貴了，
可是現金殖利率還有4%(=8.3息/200)，
以為仍然便宜。
Cash dividend yield can differ significantly from actual investment returns, which can lead to misjudgment and make an expensive stock appear to be cheap.
At NT$200, China Steel Chemical is clearly expensive according to On’s Table. Yet its cash dividend yield is still 4% (= NT$8.3 dividend ÷ NT$200), which could still make investors mistakenly think the stock is cheap.
2011年中碳漲到173元接近貴了賣掉之後
我在討論區公告週知，
居然有網友感謝我
「感謝洪老前輩把中碳賣出來才能讓他買在180元」，
後來不幸跌破70元。
這位網友為何180元還會去買中碳，
正是誤信現金殖利率的結果。
In 2011, when China Steel Chemical had risen to NT$173 and was approaching an expensive valuation, I sold my shares and publicly announced the sale on this discussion forum. One netizen actually thanked me, saying, “Thank you, Senior On, for selling China Steel Chemical so that I could buy it at NT$180.”
Unfortunately, the stock later fell below NT$70.
Why would someone buy China Steel Chemical at NT$180? Precisely because he had been misled by the cash dividend yield.
現金殖利率會受到配息率高低和買回庫藏股而扭曲，
無法正確評估貴淑。
配息率高，現金殖利率也高，進而高估貴淑價
Cash dividend yield can be distorted by the payout ratio and share buybacks, making it unreliable for assessing whether a stock is expensive or cheap.
The higher the payout ratio, the higher the cash dividend yield, which can cause investors to overestimate the stock’s attractiveness.
中碳是本人的成名代表作之一，
2003年最早發掘，在「選股魔法書」介紹，
上課時三不五時提一下，巴班同學都賺飽飽。
China Steel Chemical is one of my signature investment successes.
I first discovered it in 2003 and introduced it in my "Magic Book". I also mentioned it repeatedly in my classes. Many students in the Buffett class made substantial profits from it.
殖利率不能用，因它抓錯重點，
只看配息忘了價差，
價差才是投資報酬的唯一來源。
除息的同時股價也減下來，仍未賺到息，
須等股價漲回去填息了才賺到。
我買中碳總共賺了6倍，包括1倍的股息，
全都是因為股價漲了6倍賺來的。
Yield is not a valid metric because it focuses on the wrong thing. It looks only at dividends while ignoring capital gains. Capital gains are the only source of investment returns.
When a stock goes ex-dividend, its price falls by roughly the amount of the dividend. You have not actually earned the dividend until the stock price rises again and fills the gap.
I made six times my money on China Steel Chemical, including one times my original investment from dividends. In other words, essentially all of the sixfold return came from the stock price rising sixfold.
只看配息忘了價差容易掉入殖利率陷阱，
變成賺了股息賠了價差
Looking only at dividends while ignoring capital gains makes it easy to fall into the dividend-yield trap: earning dividends while losing money on the stock price.
理財達人和雜誌說只要把錢存到殖利率5%的股票
即可以領到200萬元股息就財務自由了！
一個年輕人如獲至寶的分享給我這個觀念。
我點了他一下「這需要4千萬元本金，從何而來？」
同學說他的月薪才3萬多元。
我說「這才是重點，達人沒教嗎？」
Financial gurus and magazines often say that if you simply put your money into stocks yielding 5%, you can collect NT$2 million in annual dividends and achieve financial freedom.
A young man once enthusiastically shared this idea with me as if he had discovered a treasure.
I pointed out one simple question:
“That requires NT$40 million of principal. Where is the NT$40 million supposed to come from?”
He told me that his monthly salary was only a little over NT$30,000.
I said, “That is the key. Didn’t the guru teach you that?”
這些達人還說只要高配息都不用賣，
不管多貴都可以買！
是嗎？
中碳若買在200元，後來跌破70元，
配息4元，要配30多年息才解套！
These gurus also claim that as long as a stock has a high dividend payout ratio, you never need to sell it.
No matter how expensive it becomes, you can keep buying it.
Really?
If you bought China Steel Chemical at NT$200 and it subsequently fell below NT$70, with a dividend of only NT$4 per year, you would need more than 30 years of dividends just to recover your original investment.
2015年理專猛推南非幣，因為利率高，
結果賠了匯差。
2015年初到2026年9月底，南非幣兌美元貶值29%。
In 2015, financial advisers aggressively promoted South African rand-denominated investments because of their high interest rates.
Investors ended up losing money on the exchange rate.
From the beginning of 2015 to the end of September 2026, the South African rand had depreciated 29% against the U.S. dollar.
理專還慫恿客戶把房子拿去貸款利率不到3%，
拿來買高收益債的利率6%可以套利。
這個前提是6%的債券價格不跌才有，
可是高收益債跟股市的漲跌同方向且同樣劇烈。
BOND ETF從2021年到2026年9月底跌了21%
Financial advisers also encourage clients to mortgage their homes, arguing that if the borrowing cost is below 3%, they can borrow against their homes and buy high-yield bonds paying 6%, thereby earning an arbitrage spread.
But that strategy only works if the price of the 6%-yielding bonds does not fall.
High-yield bonds tend to move in the same direction as the stock market, and their price movements can also be substantial. BOND ETF fell 21% from 2021 through the end of September 2026.
投信力推的高股息ETF績效很差，
也是只知配息忘了價差的結果。
選股有4大條件，都要面面俱到
1. 高ROE
2. 配得出現金，即高配息和低盈再率
3. 不會變的公司
4. 預期報酬率大於15%
The poor performance of the high-dividend ETFs aggressively promoted by investment trusts is another consequence of focusing on dividends while forgetting capital gains. There are four essential conditions for stock selection. All four must be satisfied:
1. High ROE.
2. The ability to consistently generate cash for dividends (i.e., high dividend payout ratio and low profit reinvestment rate)
3. The business must be durable and unlikely to change fundamentally.
4. The expected rate of return must be greater than 15%.
只看殖利率等於瞎子摸象，
只摸到尾巴就以為大象是一條蛇，
當然畫虎不成反類犬。
Looking only at dividend yield is like the blind men and the elephant.
You touch only the elephant’s tail and conclude that the entire elephant is a snake. No wonder the result ends up completely different from what you intended.
買房的人也在算租金收益率，而忘了房價會跌。
1997到2003年香港房市大崩盤，跌了6成多。
2021年至2026中國房產也跌掉4成。
房市大跌不是偶然而是經常發生。
1992-2026年30年來香港和中國房市
各出現5次大跌，每6年一次房災。
Homebuyers also calculate rental yields while forgetting that property prices can fall.
During Hong Kong’s housing-market crash from 1997 to 2003, property prices fell by more than 60%.
Chinese property prices have also fallen by about 40% from 2021 to 2026.
A major housing-market crash is not a rare event. It happens repeatedly.
From 1992 to 2026, Hong Kong and China each experienced five major housing downturns—roughly one property-market disaster every six years.
股價一跌大家就唉唉叫，
卻轉去看只算股息的殖利率，
這邏輯矛盾得很明顯，
應該每個人都能很快察覺。
可是近年卻變本加厲大行其道，
原因在被不良書刊雜誌洗腦。
As soon as a stock’s price falls, everyone starts complaining, yet they turn to dividend yield, which only counts the dividend. The contradiction is so obvious that everyone should be able to recognize it quickly.
Yet in recent years, this practice has become increasingly widespread. The reason is that people have been brainwashed by low-quality books and financial magazines.
雜誌上那些半調子理財達人，
最愛炫耀自己一年領200萬元配息。
姑且不論是真還假，光這樣有講等於沒講，
無法判斷績效好壞
連基本的投資報酬都講不完整，
還敢自稱是專家？
Those half-baked financial gurus in magazines love to brag about receiving NT$2 million in dividends a year.
Whether the claim is true or not, that figure alone tells us absolutely nothing about whether their investment performance is good or bad.
They can’t even fully explain the concept of investment returns, which is fundamental to every investor, yet they still have the audacity to call themselves experts?
還有一本暢銷書說能生得出現金才是資產，不能則是負債。
作者軍人出身顯然沒修過會計，連基本名詞都不懂。
他鼓吹只要現金周轉得過來，可以大量舉債去炒房，
又是只看租金收益率忘了房價也會跌。
這是很危險的行為，離破產不遠。
There is also a bestselling book that claims that an asset is something that can generate cash, while something that cannot generate cash is a liability.
The author, who came from a military background, apparently had little formal accounting training and did not even understand these basic accounting terms.
He advocates taking on substantial debt to speculate in real estate as long as the cash flow remains manageable. This is essentially the same mistake: looking only at rental yield while forgetting that property prices can also fall. That can be extremely dangerous and can put an investor on the path toward bankruptcy.
講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Good quality and low price)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：殖利率陷阱 (Lecture 14/21 Yield trap)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theory)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 It's not that deep)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析真荒謬 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis is ridiculous)
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