進一步講解巴菲特理論之前，先來複習基本的會計觀念，
因選股主要從財報看出來。
Before delving deeper into the Buffett theory, let's first review the basic accounting concepts. Stock selection is primarily based on financial reports.
財報有2張，第一張叫資產負債表，記載公司有什麼資產。
這間教室若是一家公司有何資產？
桌子、投影機、電腦...
這些資產用什麼錢買的？錢的來源不外乎兩個：
借的錢就是負債，公司自己的錢為淨值。
資產負債表的基本架構就是資產 = 負債 + 淨值。
Financial reports have two statements, with the first being the balance sheet. This document records a company's assets, such as desks, projectors, and computers. The funds used to acquire these assets come from two sources: borrowed money, which is listed as a liability, and the company's own funds, recorded as equity. The balance sheet follows a basic formula where assets are equal to liabilities plus equity.
資產裡有流動資產，最容易變成現金的東西。
什麼東西容易變成現金？
第一當然是現金本身。
第二是短期投資，一年以內會處分的股票和債券。
公司手上現金通常把短期投資跟現金跟加起來算，
因為公司的錢有時候會去玩股票或買債券基金，很容易變現。
第三是應收帳款，客戶欠的錢收回來就變成現金了。
第四是存貨，賣掉就變成現金。
Current assets are part of a company's assets and are the easiest to convert to cash. Cash itself is the first of these assets, followed by short-term investments such as stocks and bonds that are expected to be sold within a year. The company's cash balance often includes these short-term investments as they can be easily converted to cash. The third type is accounts receivable, which becomes cash once payment is received from customers. Lastly, there is inventory, which transforms into cash when sold.
另外兩個不容易變成現金的科目，
一是長期投資，一年以上才會處分的股票或債券，
通常指轉投資的股票。
最後一個最不易變現的是固定資產，機器、設備、廠房、土地。
所謂的資本支出即用來擴廠的錢，
包括在固定資產跟長期投資，
有些公司透過轉投資去海外設廠，像鴻海就是，
要算它的資本支出，須把固定資產和長期投資加起來算。
There are two other types of assets that are less liquid. The first is long-term investments, like stocks and bonds, which are typically held for more than a year, with subsidiary stocks being a common example. The second, which is the most difficult to convert to cash, is fixed assets, such as machinery, equipment, factories, and land. Capital expenditures refer to the funds used for expanding production and comprise both fixed assets and long-term investments. For companies like Hon Hai, which have established overseas factories through subsidiaries, the calculation of their capital expenditures involves the sum of both fixed assets and long-term investments.
資產負債表右邊的淨值，是公司自己的錢，
分為2個科目股本和保留。
股本等於股數乘以面額10元，
股數是公司所有權切成幾塊。
The equity on the right side of the balance sheet represents a company's own funds, which are divided into two accounts: capital and reserves. Capital is calculated by multiplying the number of shares by a set par value, such as NT$10. The number of shares represents the company's ownership divided into smaller portions.
保留有2個科目
一是盈餘公積，公司賺的錢保留下來。
另一個是資本公積，包括現金增資的溢價、資產重估增值、
合併時所產生的商譽。
現金增資就是公司印股票跟股東要錢，
一股若賣60元，其中10元記為股本，50元記為資本公積。
The reserves account in equity includes two sub-accounts. The first is retained earnings, which represents money that the company has kept from its profits. The second is capital surplus, which encompasses additional paid-in capital, increases in the value of assets, and goodwill generated from mergers. For example, if a company raises funds through the issuance of new shares, selling each stock for NT$60, NT$10 would be recorded as capital and NT$50 as capital surplus.
淨值也稱淨資產，又稱股東權益，
也叫帳面價值，或自有資本，都是一樣的意思。
ROE就是淨值報酬率或股東權益報酬率。
Equity is also referred to as net assets, net worth, book value, or own capital, and all these terms mean the same thing. ROE, or return on equity, is the return that a company earns on the equity it holds.
第二張報表叫做損益表，記載公司如何賺錢？
賺錢的來源不外乎本業跟業外。
本業賺的錢叫做營業利益，等於營收減成本減費用。
製造業的營收是sales，服務業為收入revenue。
跟產品直接相關的叫成本，間接相關為費用。
這一隻筆賣10元，營收記為10元，
製筆需買材料來做，直接相關記為成本，
買機器設備來做，每年提列的折舊是成本。
生產線上員工的薪水也是成本。
費用則是間接相關，行銷費用、研發費用都是。
The second report referred to as the income statement records the company's sources of income. The sources of income come from both operating and non-operating businesses. Operating profit is calculated by subtracting costs and expenses from sales. In manufacturing, sales are recorded, while in service industries, revenue is recorded. Costs refer to expenses directly related to the product, while expenses are indirect expenses such as marketing and R&D expenses. For example, if a pen is sold for $10, the sales are recorded as $10. The cost of materials used in the production of the pen is recorded as a cost, while expenses such as the annual depreciation on machinery and equipment and the salaries of employees on the production line are also recorded as costs. Expenses are those that are indirectly related to the product and include costs such as marketing and R&D expenses.
業外收入包括利息收入、投資收入、處分利得、匯兌。
投資收入包括長投跟短投。
處分利得是賣土地和股票。
Non-operating income encompasses a variety of sources, including interest income, investment income, gains from disposals, and gains from foreign exchange. Investment income can come from both long-term and short-term investments. Disposal gains refer to the sale of assets such as land and stocks.
有幾個專有名詞跟大家再複習一下。
EPS每股盈餘，稅後淨利÷股數，公司最後總共賺了多少錢÷股數。
NAV為每股淨值，淨值÷股數，公司自己的錢÷股數。
There are a few important technical terms to discuss. EPS, or Earnings Per Share, is calculated by dividing net profit by the number of shares. Net profit is the bottom line shown on the income statement. Another term is NAV, which stands for Net Asset Value per Share and is calculated by dividing net assets by the number of shares.
用養鵝來比喻，EPS是鵝下的每一顆蛋，
蛋有大有小，大立光EPS180元是恐龍蛋，
聯電EPS零點幾元為螞蟻蛋。
NAV是鵝體重的大小，10公斤重的鵝或5公斤的鵝。
To use a goose-raising analogy, EPS can be compared to the eggs laid by a goose. Just as eggs come in different sizes, EPS can vary in size as well. For example, a company like Largan with an EPS of NT$180 can be compared to a goose laying a large dinosaur egg, while a company like UMC with only a few cents of EPS can be compared to a goose laying a small ant egg. On the other hand, NAV can be compared to the weight of the goose, with a 10 kg goose representing a higher NAV compared to a 5 kg goose.
看鵝會不會下蛋？非光看牠下了幾顆蛋，
10公斤重的鵝下3顆蛋跟5公斤重的鵝下了2顆蛋，
請問哪隻鵝會下蛋？
把蛋跟鵝一起拿來作比較，即EPS÷NAV = ROE，
ROE就是看這隻鵝會不會下蛋？看公司的獲利能力好不好？
When evaluating the productivity of a goose, it's not enough to just look at the number of eggs laid. For example, a 10 kg goose may lay 3 eggs, while a 5 kg goose may lay 2 eggs, but this doesn't necessarily mean the 10 kg goose is more productive. To determine productivity, it's important to compare the egg with the goose, that is, the EPS with the NAV, which is represented by the formula EPS ÷ NAV = ROE. ROE is used to evaluate the profitability of a company and determine which goose is more productive in terms of generating profits.
至於鵝有沒有買貴了？有2種評估方式。
買價跟蛋來作比較就是本益比，股價÷EPS，
花100元買鵝，這隻下了3顆蛋，
另一隻下2顆，哪隻比較便宜？
To determine if a goose is overpriced, there are two evaluation methods. One is to compare the price with the eggs, which is the price-earnings ratio, stock price ÷ EPS. For example, if you spend 100 dollars to buy a goose that lays 3 eggs, and another goose lays 2 eggs, which one is cheaper?
買價跟鵝來作比較為股價淨值比，股價÷NAV，
花100元買這隻鵝10公斤重，
另一隻5公斤，哪一隻便宜？
The comparison of the purchase price to the goose is the price-to-book ratio (PBR), stock price ÷ net asset value. If you spend $100 to buy a goose that weighs 10 kilograms, and another weighs 5 kilograms, which one is cheaper?
財報上數字的單位像營收和淨利，
通常指百萬元，百萬英文的縮寫是m，千是k，十億為b。
負數則用括弧來表示，(100) = -100
Financial reports often use units of one million for numbers such as sales and net profit. The abbreviation for one million is "m", for thousand is "k", and for one billion is "b". Negative numbers are indicated by parentheses, for example, (100) represents -100.
看財報會算成長率，成長率有三種：
年增率就是YOY(year on year)；
季增率QOQ(quarter on quarter)；
月增率MOM(month on month)。
In financial reports, we calculate growth rates. There are three types of growth rates:
YOY (year-over-year),
QOQ (quarter-over-quarter),
MOM (month-over-month).
YOY跟去年同期比較；
QOQ跟上一季比；
MOM跟上月比。
YOY compared with the same period last year;
QOQ compared with the previous quarter;
MOM compared with last month.
YOY 8 '06 / 8 '05
QOQ 3Q06 / 2Q06
MOM 8 '06 / 7 '06
成長率碰到負數無法計算
60 / -30 = 無
-60 / 30 = 無
-60 / -30 = 無
無=無法計算
Growth rate cannot be calculated if a negative number is encountered.
60 / -30 = na
-60 / 30 = na
-60 / -30 = na
na=not available
很多人問我巴菲特理論跟傳統基本面分析有何不同？
一言以蔽之，傳統基本面分析在估EPS，追成長股，
巴菲特則說要改看ROE才對！
People often ask me how Buffett's approach differs from traditional fundamental analysis. In essence, traditional fundamental analysis focuses on evaluating EPS and seeking out growth stocks, while Buffett emphasizes the importance of considering ROE instead.
選股為何看ROE？
因為維持住ROE，股價才會漲！
Why do stock pickers value ROE? Because as ROE is sustained, stock prices will increase!
股價 = EPS x PER，
影響本益比的因素很多，ROE是其中之一。
ROE上升本益比會跟著上升，
公司的獲利能力上升，股票可以賣得比較貴。
Stock price = EPS x PER
There are numerous factors that influence PER, and ROE is one of them. If the ROE rises, the PER will also increase. This means that the profitability of the company has improved, and its stock can be sold at a higher price.
問一個最根本的問題，請問股價為什麼會漲？
公司獲利成長，股價就會漲嗎？
不一定！
獲利成長若不能維持住ROE，股價仍然會跌。
相反地，即便獲利衰退，只要把ROE拉高，股價還是會漲。
維持住ROE，股價才會漲！
One of the most basic questions is why stock prices rise. While it is true that an increase in a company's profits can result in a rising stock price, it's not always the case. If profit growth cannot sustain a high ROE, the stock price may still fall. Conversely, even if profits decline, as long as the ROE improves, the stock price can still increase. In summary, maintaining a high ROE is crucial for a rising stock price.
宸鴻的營收成長，獲利上揚，EPS從20元上升48元，
可是ROE卻下降從89%降為35%，
結果股價慘跌。
選股看ROE就好，不必在意營收跟EPS。
指標要看對才有用，不是看越多越好。
TPK (3673.TW) saw an increase in sales and profits, leading to a rise in EPS from NT$20 to NT$48. However, the ROE dropped from 89% to 35%, causing a sharp decline in stock price. To select stocks, it's important to focus on the ROE, rather than just sales and EPS. Remember, indicators are only useful if they are accurate, and having more indicators is not necessarily better.
相反地，即便獲利衰退，把ROE拉高，股價還是會漲。
晶華酒店淨利從2000年的8.98億元衰退到6億多，
把ROE拉高，股價還是漲。
On the other hand, even if profits decrease and ROE improves, stock prices can still rise. For example, Regent Hotel (2707.TW) saw a drop in its net profit from NT$898 million in 2000 to over NT$600 million, yet the stock price still increased due to the improvement in ROE.
可口可樂最近4年獲利持平，可是維持住ROE，股價仍然上漲。
Despite a lack of growth in profits over the past four years, Coca-Cola (KO) has still managed to see a rise in its share price by maintaining a high ROE.
3M獲利持平，ROE越來越高，股價一直漲。
Despite flat profits, MMM's rising ROE has resulted in an upward trend in its stock price.
選股不是看EPS，而是ROE才對。
投資人要求公司營收每月創新高，獲利每年成長，
這其實是不切實際的想法，
因為業績總是有好有壞，再怎麼好的公司獲利也會衰退。
我買中碳8年賺6倍，這8年之中獲利也曾經衰退過，
可是抱了8年照樣賺6倍。
Stock selection should not be based on EPS, but rather on ROE. Investors may expect a company's sales to continuously reach new monthly highs and for profits to increase year over year, but this is an unrealistic expectation as even the best performing companies will experience fluctuations and may have declining profits at times. For example, I bought shares in China Steel Chemical and earned a return of 6 times over 8 years, even though its profits decreased at certain points during that time. Nevertheless, by holding the stock for 8 years, I still realized a return of 6 times my investment.
在現實的世界公司獲利不可永遠無止境成長，
成長到最後總有它的極限，
獲利不成長就不行？當然不是。
請問各位同學的薪水有沒有每月創新高？
沒有，有無賺到錢？當然有，
所以哪裡需要獲利成長才能賺到錢。
In reality, a company's profits cannot continuously grow without limit. There are limits to growth. Does this mean that a lack of profit growth will result in the failure of a company? No, that's not necessarily the case. Do your salaries break new records every month? No, but you still earn a income. Therefore, profit growth is not a requirement for earning money.
開了這個巴菲特班才發現營收要每月創新高是很難的事，
現在都不敢要求營收創新高，只要能維持穩定就好。
本班每月新生報名人數至少有80個人，
只要維持80個人我就能勉強糊口。
After starting the Buffett class, I realized that reaching a new high in monthly sales is challenging. Now, I just aim to keep my sales stable, rather than breaking a new record. The class attracts at least 80 new students every month. So long as I maintain 80 new enrollees, I can barely make a living.
ROE是淨值長高的速度，
ROE 20%意指淨值每年以20%的速度在長高。
只要淨值以ROE的速度在長高，就會把股價拉上來。
ROE stands for the growth rate of net assets. A ROE of 20% indicates that the net assets increase by 20% annually. If the net assets grow at the rate of the ROE, it will drive up stock prices.
有人想兩全其美，把ROE與EPS兩派結合，
既是高ROE又是EPS成長，所謂的價值成長學派，
以為這樣績效會更好？
如此將適得其反，績效反而會最差，
2008年台積電40元時不敢買，因為當時獲利衰退。
2014年中碳200元時則跳下去，因那時獲利成長。
Someone wants to have the best of both worlds and combine the ROE and EPS factions. This is known as the value growth school, where both ROE and EPS growth are high. They believed that this would result in better performance, but the opposite happened. Investment performance was the worst. They hesitated to buy TSMC at a price of NT$40 in 2008 because its profits were declining. In 2014, they invested in China Steel Chemical at a price of NT$200, because its profits were rising at the time.
一講到價值投資即有人拿股價淨值比來選股，
股價低於淨值表示股價超跌，
這是認定淨值代表公司的價值，
是這樣嗎？並不是。
When it comes to value investing, someone selects stocks based on the price-to-book ratio (PBR). They consider a stock price below its net assets to indicate an undervalued stock, believing that the net assets represent the company's value. However, this is not necessarily accurate.
2013年大立光的股價1,000多元，當時每股淨值才186元，
為何股價高於淨值這麼多？
同時期國巨每股淨值16元，股價卻只有10元，
為何股價低於淨值？
這兩家股價為何如此懸殊？
因為一家是好公司，另一家是爛公司，
大立光ROE 28%，國巨ROE僅3％，
ROE比一年定存利率6.7%低表示公司的淨值沒有價值，
買它還不如去存定存比較快，
所以公司的價值不是淨值來決定，而是ROE。
In 2013, Largan's stock price was over NT$1,000, but its net assets value (NAV) was only NT$186, explaining the disparity between the two. Meanwhile, Yageo's NAV was NT$16 but its stock price was only NT$10. This difference in stock prices can be attributed to the quality of the companies. Largan had a ROE of 28%, while Yageo's was only 3%. If a company's ROE is lower than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate, it suggests that its net assets are of little value. In such a case, it is better to save money than to invest in the stock. Therefore, a company's value is not determined by its net assets but by its ROE.
2008年金融風暴台塑股價沒跌破淨值，
台化卻跌破淨值，為什麼？
因為當年台塑ROE還有8%，
台化ROE只有2%，低於6.7%，股價跌破淨值。
During the 2008 financial crisis, Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) stock price stayed above its net assets value (NAV), while Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326.TW) fell below its NAV. The reason for this difference can be attributed to the ROE of the companies. Formosa had an ROE of 8%, while Taiwan Chemical had an ROE of only 2%, which was less than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate. As a result, Taiwan Chemical's stock price fell below its NAV.
用股價淨值比小於 1 的方法來選股是錯的，
常會選到一些爛公司，
因公司爛，股價才低於淨值，不表示股價超跌。
Choosing a stock based on a price-to-book ratio (PBR) less than 1 is incorrect. This approach may lead to choosing poor quality companies. If a company is poor, its stock price may be lower than its net assets value (NAV), but this does not necessarily mean that the stock price is undervalued.
公司的價值是ROE來決定的，
成長和淨值只是其中兩個因素而已，
影響價值的因素還很多，像技術、管理能力、市場潛力、品牌知名度...都是。
The company's worth is calculated based on its ROE. Growth and net assets are merely two contributing elements. Many other factors also influence its value, such as technology, management competency, market opportunity, brand recognition, and others.
價值(ROE) = f (成長，淨值，技術，管理能力，市場潛力，品牌知名度，。。。）
Value(ROE) = f (growth, net assets, technology, management capabilities, market potential, brand name, ...)
很多法人老是喜歡把股票分為成長型和價值型兩大類，
這種二分法令我不解，因為成長跟價值不能一刀切，
它們互為影響。
中碳一般被歸類為價值型的股票，
即獲利不太成長，股價低估。
中碳的獲利沒成長嗎？有啊！
2003年中碳一年才賺5億元，後來最高賺了22億，
從5億成長到22億，
它是價值型還是成長型？都是吧！
Many institutional investors divide stocks into two groups: growth and value. This division confounds me, as growth and value are interconnected. China Steel Chemical is categorized as a value stock, indicating that its earnings haven't risen and its stock price is considered undervalued. Despite this, the company's profits have increased; in 2003, it earned NT$500 million, and later it made NT$2.2 billion. Is it value or growth type ? It is both value and growth.
法人對股票的一些講法我都不以為然。
買基金時理專總會問您是積極型投資人還是保守型？
每次被這樣一問，都讓我愣在那邊，反省了一下，
本人買股票不喜歡賠錢，所以是保守型的投資人，
可是又想要賺大錢，又是積極型，
其實每個人都像我這種類型，不喜歡賠錢又想要賺大錢，
我們是什麼型？「穩賺型」投資人。
I disagree with some of the statements made by institutional investors regarding stocks. When purchasing funds, financial advisors frequently ask whether you are a conservative or an active investor. This question frequently causes me confusion and contemplation. Despite my desire to avoid losses when investing in stocks, I consider myself to be a conservative investor. However, as I am also motivated to earn substantial profits, I am often viewed as an active investor. This seemingly conflicting approach is common among investors who seek to maximize returns while minimizing risks. We can be labeled as "must-win" investors.
理專還會告訴你，年紀大的人理財要保守一點，
年輕人則可以積極。這個說法我也難以苟同，
年紀大的人來日不多了還在保守幹什麼！
年輕人來日方長可以慢慢玩何必那麼急？
開玩笑喔，同學不要回去之後就把錢全部押進去。
不管是男女老幼對於理財所面對的問題都是一樣的，
即這一支股票到底現在可不可以買？
就是買之後了一年的報酬率有多少？
若有30%當然用力買，
若報酬率僅1％則在旁邊看。
不是積極保守的問題，而是預期報酬率的問題。
The advisor will also tell you that older people should adopt a more conservative approach to finance, while younger people can be more active. I also disagree with this statement. Why should older people, who have limited time left, be conservative? Young people, who have a long future ahead of them, can take it slow. Just joking, classmates, don't invest all your money when you get back. Whether men, women, the elderly, or children, we all face the same problem in finance, i.e. can I buy this stock now and what is the expected return after purchase? If the expected return is 30%, then it's definitely a good choice. If the expected return is only 1%, then wait and watch. This is not a question of being active or conservative, but a question of expected returns.
影響公司價值的因素還有很多，
資金成本，借錢成本比別人低，公司也會很有價值。
波克夏就是，A股現在股價是30萬美金，折合台幣900萬多元，
這是一股，不是一張，
買一張要90億台幣，
同學下單時別下買一張波克夏A，要90億元吶。
不過美股交易單位算股的，沒有張。
為何波克夏股價這麼高？
因巴菲特名聲特別響亮？不是，是因浮存金成本低。
There are numerous factors that influence a company's value, such as a low cost of capital, as is the case with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). The current stock price of BRK.A shares is $300,000, equivalent to over NT$9 million, but it's important to note that this is for one share, not one lot (1,000 shares). When placing an order, it's important not to confuse buying one lot of BRK.A shares with buying Taiwan stocks, as it would cost NT$9 billion. Unlike Taiwan stocks, US stock trading units do not have the concept of a lot. The high stock price of BRK.A is not due to Warren Buffett's reputation, but rather its low cost of float.
波克夏是一家投資公司，買了很多家保險公司，是個保險集團。
老巴說祂的保險公司好，好在浮存金成本比別人低，
保費收進來，還沒理賠之前，這些錢可以自由運用叫浮存金。
祂的保險公司浮存金成本只有 -3％，怎麼會 -3％？
保費收100元進來，理賠103元出去，浮存金成本3%，
它僅理賠97元，所以為 -3％，理賠少。
老巴的汽車險專門針對駕駛紀錄優良的客戶去拉保險，
承保巨災險，碰到天災地變才需理賠，平常不需要，
所以浮存金成本低。
Berkshire is an investment firm that owns several insurance companies and operates as an insurance group. According to Mr. Buffett, his insurance companies have a lower cost of float than other companies, which gives them a competitive advantage. The cost of float refers to the amount of money collected as premiums that can be used freely before claims are settled. In Berkshire's insurance companies, the cost of float is -3%, which means that they receive more money in claims than they collect in premiums. This occurs because they specialize in providing insurance to customers with good driving records and only underwrite catastrophe insurance, which requires compensation only during natural disasters and not on a regular basis. Thus, the low cost of float is a result of their underwriting strategy.
一般保險公司的浮存金成本大概在5-6%之間。
保險公司也會倒閉，翁大銘的國華人壽即因投資不善而倒閉。
國民黨的幸福人壽也因虧損累累而賣掉。
瑞士人壽在台灣開的瑞泰人壽，不堪虧損賣掉，
反正公司名稱叫瑞泰或泰瑞的都會倒閉。
The cost of float for most insurance companies is between 5-6%. Insurance companies may also go bankrupt, such as Kuohua Life owned by Weng Daming, who went bankrupt due to poor investment, or Singfor Life owned by the Kuomintang, which was sold due to heavy losses. Rueitai Life Insurance in Taiwan, owned by Swiss Life, was also sold at a loss. Regardless, companies named Rueitai or Tairuei are likely to go bankrupt.
浮存金等於散戶的融資，同樣借錢來買股票，
融資利率6%，亦即在還沒買之前巴菲特就贏9%。
祂的績效過去50年平均年複利19%，
這個紀錄前無古人而且後無來者，
因為我們沒有那麼低成本的浮存金。
有些小朋友在寫部落格立志績效一年要50%，
我看是卡早睏卡有眠！
Float is similar to financing for retail investors, who borrow money to purchase stocks. The financing rate is 6%, giving Warren Buffett a 9% advantage prior to buying. He has achieved an average annual compounded growth rate of 19% over the past 50 years, a remarkable achievement unlikely to be surpassed due to his low-cost float advantage. A student wrote in their blog about their aspirations for a 50% annual investment return, but they would be better off keeping that as a dream.
同學問，上了巴菲特班之後績效可以多少？
若一年有15%就很好，
15%聽起來不怎麼樣，長期下來將是可觀成果。
本班傑出校友鄧安鎮同學，接受今周刊訪問說，
自從上了我的課之後，10年下來年平均複利17%，
他原先只是年薪不到50萬元的小業務，
現在身價3千多萬，
本金500萬元，從500萬變成3千多萬。
A student asked about the potential performance improvement after taking the Buffett class. If a 15% return per year is considered good, then 15% may not sound impressive, but it will result in substantial gains in the long run. Outstanding alumnus Anzhen Deng, in an interview with Business Today magazine, said that since taking the class, his average compound return has been 17% annually over the past 10 years. He used to be a small salesman with an annual salary of less than NT$500,000, but his net worth has grown from NT$5 million to over NT$30 million, starting with a capital of NT$5 million.
這堂課從頭到尾在講ROE這個觀念，為何ROE這麼重要呢？
因為高ROE+便宜買，報酬率就會最大！
This lecture will revolve around the concept of ROE. Why is ROE so important? Because the higher the ROE and the cheaper the purchase price, the greater the return on investment will be.
我來證明，買股票有兩種報酬，配息跟價差。
股息要最大即公司要高配息，
價差最大要買得低，賣得高。
要賣得高就是股價大漲，
前面已證明維持住ROE，股價才會漲。
股價要大漲呢？則要維持高ROE！
所以高配息+高ROE+便宜買，報酬率就會最大，賺到快速暴利。
I will demonstrate why this is true. When investing in stocks, there are two types of rewards - dividends and capital gains. The highest dividends come from the highest dividend payout ratio. The largest capital gains come from buying low and selling high. It has already been shown that maintaining a high ROE leads to an increase in stock prices. Therefore, a combination of high dividends, high return on equity, and purchasing at a cheap price will maximize return on investment and bring quicker profits.
這是非常重要的結論，告訴我們投資只要做好兩件事：
挑高ROE的股票，便宜買，報酬率就會最大，
最好選高配息的公司。
This is a crucial conclusion that highlights the two key things that one needs to do while investing:
Choose stocks with a high ROE, purchase them at a cheap price, and the return on investment will be maximum. It is preferable to select a company that offers a high dividend yield.
其他的因素就通通不要理它了，
技術面、外資買賣超、主力進出、籌碼面、政治面、選舉行情，
通通不用理它，因為不會影響投資報酬率。
All other factors can be disregarded: technical analysis, foreign investor and large player net trading, chip analysis, political issues, election rallies. Disregard them completely as they will have no impact on the final return on investment outcome.
買股票跟買東西是一樣的道理，都是要物美價廉，
什麼是物美的股票？就是高ROE。
Investing in stocks is similar to shopping.
The objective is to find the best value, just like looking for high-quality items at a good price.
What are the high-quality stocks? Those with a high Return on Equity (ROE).
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theorem)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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