2020年12月24日 星期四

講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)

上到這裡同學可能會突然想起來，

財務分析這門課蠻重要的，

從開始到現在都是根據財務報表在選股。

同學問有無必要再去看一些會計方面的書？

建議同學上完課之後不要把講義扔掉，

用精裝本裱起來，燙金字，三不五時拿出來翻個兩頁，

等到把講義看到滾瓜爛熟之後再決定要不要去看其他的書。


Our current lecture may remind you that financial analysis is very important. From the outset, we have been selecting stocks based on financial statements. Some students have asked if it is necessary to read accounting books. My suggestion is that after completing the course, students should not discard their handouts. Instead, they can have them bound in hardcover, embossed with gold lettering, and read a few pages periodically. Once they have thoroughly studied the handouts, they can then decide whether to explore other accounting books.


早年我也喜歡看各家投資的書，彼得林區、索羅斯都看過，

可是當我把巴菲特的道理想通之後就不再看那些書了，

因為那些投資大師的理論或多或少都還有一些問題，

唯一挑不太出毛病只有巴菲特。


During my early years, I used to read various investment books by authors such as Peter Lynch and Soros. However, once I comprehended Buffett's principles, I stopped reading those books. This is because the investment theories of those experts are somewhat flawed, whereas Buffett's ideas are the only exception.


有人以為我能夠把整個道理想通是因為博覽群書？

其實不是，而是從最基本的東西開始懷疑起。

我懷疑選股為何要看EPS，

打從當分析師的第一天即被告知要估EPS，

對我而言是天經地義的事，可是就懷疑，

因為看EPS必然會去追成長股，

可是我實際開公司卻不是這樣，

晉昂投顧獲利沒每年成長，可是都很賺錢，

所以不認為選股要看EPS。


Some people believe that my understanding of investment theory is a result of reading numerous books. However, that is not the case. I gained my understanding by grasping the fundamental concepts. For instance, I question why EPS is a critical factor for stock picking. While I was taught to estimate EPS from the first day of being an analyst, I have my doubts. Relying solely on EPS could lead to a focus on growth stocks, which is not always the case in actual company operations. In my own company, profits do not necessarily grow every year, yet it remains highly profitable. Therefore, I do not believe that stock selection should solely depend on EPS.


一度認為看ROA，後來確認該看ROE，

當知道選股看ROE時再去看波克夏年報就豁然開朗，

2003年發明出盈再率之後巴菲特理論則完全想通。


I used to think that ROA was the key factor for stock selection, but I later realized that ROE was more important. After discovering the significance of ROE in selecting stocks, I read Berkshire Hathaway's annual report and had a sudden realization. It was only after I developed the PR% indicator in 2003 that I fully grasped Buffett's investment theory.



把基本的東西想清楚最重要，因為一通百通，

後來同學拿杜邦公式、自由現金流量來問我，

這些東西原本跟我不熟，

可是一看即知道通通是錯的，一一指出錯在哪裡，

我未翻書也沒請教他人，就知道那些是錯的。


Once you understand the fundamentals, you can understand everything else clearly. Later on, my students asked me questions about DuPont's formula and free cash flow, which were not familiar to me. However, I was able to identify the errors at a glance and pointed them out one by one without the need to consult books or other sources.


在思考的過程中，有關會計方面的問題，

向好友吳朝同會計師和蔣榮霖先生請教也至為關鍵，

買回庫藏股買到淨值為負即承蒙吳大會計師的指點。

會計是極其專業的學科，務必就教於專家，

而不要像那些沒修過會計的人胡亂想像。


During my investment analysis, I find it valuable to consult with my trusted accountant friends, Chaotong Wu and Ronglin Jiang. From Accountant Wu, I learned about the concept that buying back treasury stocks could result in negative net asset value. As accounting is a highly technical subject, it is crucial to learn from experts like them. It's unwise to have wild imaginations about accounting without proper study and guidance.


同學看別人的書有問題請直接去問作者，而不要來問我。

同學就是討厭，喜歡看別人的書又拿來問我，

因本班最開放，在討論區丟個問題出來，我就跳出來回答。

巴班討論區同學可自行出題提問，

篇幅不限，愛怎麼長篇大論、貼圖都歡迎，

不像別的投資社群用臉書(FB)，

只能按讚，不能自行出題，篇幅也小。


If you have any questions about other books, please reach out to the author directly instead of asking me. I don't appreciate when students ask me about content from other sources. This course is very open, and you are welcome to ask questions in the discussion forum. I will jump in to answer them. There is no limit to the length of your posts or the number of pictures you can use. This is different from other investment clubs that use Facebook as their forum. On Facebook, you can only "like" a post, but you can't ask new questions, and there is very limited space for discussion.


同學拿東西來問我，告訴他這個錯了，那個錯了，

同學聽不懂反過來誣指我太固執，

只認為自己對，別人都錯，說本班是一言堂。

實在無言！

不許我表示自己的意見，

還抹黑本班沒言論自由。


A dozen students came to me with a question, and I pointed out some of their mistakes. However, when they didn't understand, they wrongly accused me of being stubborn and only valuing my own ideas while disregarding others. They even went so far as to claim that our class was a one-man dictatorship. This left me speechless! Some students even prevented me from expressing my opinions and tarnished the class's reputation by falsely claiming a lack of freedom of speech.


這些都是過去同學看了別人的書來問我的題目：

杜邦公式、現金轉換循環、自由現金流量、技術分析、

景氣對策訊號燈、現金殖利率、股債蹺蹺板、

covered call、naked put、ROA，

通通都是錯的。


These are some of the questions that students asked me after reading other books: DuPont formula, cash conversion cycle, free cash flow, technical analysis, prosperity countermeasure signal light, cash yield, stock and debt seesaw, covered call, naked put, and ROA. However, they are all incorrect.



我告訴同學是錯的，是我在教他，

同學聽不懂反過來批我，實在夠衰。

我們小時候是老師罵學生，

現在好不容易當了老師，竟成學生在霸凌老師，

這年......頭都變了！


I informed the student that all of their questions were incorrect, as I was trying to teach them. However, instead of understanding, the student verbally attacked me. It is ironic that when I was a student, teachers would scold us for our mistakes, but now that I have become a teacher, I am being bullied by my students. This year has been quite topsy-turvy!


何以致此呢？

因為投資的觀念被污染之後就拉不回來了。

投資誰最好教？

離投資越遠的人越好教。

完全一竅不通和學歷最低的人最好教，

我叫他買什麼就買什麼，賣什麼即賣什麼，績效會最好。

什麼人最難教？

越自為以聰明專業的人越學不會巴菲特。


Why is this the case? It's because the concept of investment cannot be unlearned once it's been contaminated. Who makes the best investment students? The further away they are from the world of investment, the better. Those who are the least knowledgeable and have the lowest academic qualifications are the best candidates because they will simply follow my teachings, leading to the best investment performance. Who are the most challenging to teach? Those who believe they are smart and already knowledgeable about investing are the least likely to learn the ways of Buffett.



再強調一次，把講稿唸熟就足以應付股市的各種狀況，

股市不會考課外題，全部從講稿出題。

同學應該會發現在討論區回答問題

我常常不用打很多字，多半在剪貼而已。

這個問題一看以前回答過了就貼出來，

那個問題也回答過再貼出來。

難怪有同學罵我，跟我講話跟鬼打牆一樣。

鬼打牆才是正確的啊！

表示我的理論經得起考驗、顛撲不破，

不管怎樣問答案都是一致。


To reiterate, thoroughly familiarizing oneself with the speech is sufficient to handle various situations in the stock market. Exam questions will only cover lecture content and nothing else. Students may notice that I often use cut and paste in discussion forums instead of typing lengthy replies. If a question has been answered before, I will immediately post the answer. It is not surprising that some students criticize me for "talking to a wall." However, repeating concepts is necessary to reinforce them and aid in better retention. In fact, talking to a wall is the right approach because it demonstrates that my theory can withstand scrutiny and is not easily dismantled. Regardless of the question, the answer remains the same.


同學有問題時請直接到討論區來，

我三兩句話就可以打發掉，

而不要幾個同學私底下Line來Line去，

Facebook來Facebook去，

不懂的在問不懂的有什麼好問的呢！


If you have any questions, please come directly to the discussion forum where I can quickly solve them with just a few words. Instead of communicating privately on Line or Facebook, which may involve several students, it's best to seek help in the forum. Asking questions to someone who also does not know the answer is not helpful.



講這麼多同學還是問還有沒有一些更高階

更advanced的東西可以看？

若要更advanced請把講稿拿出來再唸一遍就是advanced。


Despite all that has been discussed, some students are still asking whether there are more advanced courses or content available. If you are looking for more advanced material, I suggest revisiting the lecture text and thoroughly familiarizing yourself with the content again. The lecture content is already advanced.


真的不需要再看財務分析的書，

唸那些書會發現財務指標有上百個，但多半沒有用。

何以如此斷言？很簡單，

來回想一下我們在看財報到底想要知道什麼東西？

不外乎底下3點而已：

第一、看家公司的獲利能力好不好？

第二、看現金周轉會不會出問題？

第三、看作假帳或掏空？


You no longer need to read financial analysis books. Most of the financial indicators presented in these books are useless. I make this assertion based on a simple fact: when reading financial reports, the only things you need to know boil down to three key points:

1. Is the company profitable?

2. Is there a potential issue with cash flow?

3. Is there a risk of accounting fraud or embezzlement?


第一、看公司的獲利能力好不好？

看EPS、ROA、ROIC、毛利率…

都不如看ROE。 


To evaluate the company's profitability, you should look at metrics such as EPS, ROA, ROIC, and gross margin. However, it is even better to focus on the ROE.


同學問選股要不要看毛利率、營業利潤率、稅後淨利率？

他們以為利潤率高的公司獲利會比較好。

不用，選股不必看利潤率，

因為高毛利不等於高獲利。

威盛毛利28%是虧損累累的公司，

鴻海毛利率只有6％卻賺大錢。

毛利率跟行業別有關，

鴻海做代工毛利率不可能高得起來，

毛利率雖然低，可是量很大依舊賺很多錢。

鴻海的毛利率若高量又大，就不叫鴻海了，

改叫蘋果啦。


Students asked whether it's advisable to choose stocks based on gross margin, operating margin, and net margin, as they believe that companies with high profit margins will yield better profits. However, this is not always the case since a high profit margin does not necessarily translate to high profits. For instance, VIA has a high gross profit margin of 28%, but it suffers significant losses. On the other hand, Hon Hai has a low gross profit margin of only 6%, but it generates substantial profits. It's worth noting that the gross margin is industry-specific, and Hon Hai's OEM gross profit rate cannot be high. If Hon Hai had a high gross profit margin and made significant profits, it would not be called Hon Hai, but rather, Apple.



有人說毛利率的比較，非不同行業別的比較，

而是公司本身自己比較。

就自己來跟自己比，鴻海1991年剛上市時在做連接器，

毛利率高達25%，卻只賺一點點錢。

後來做代工毛利逐年下降到只有6％，可是錢越賺越多。

宏達電也是，當年公司宣示要展開機海戰略，

不惜犧牲毛利率來搶佔市場時毛利率也逐季下降，

可是手機越賣越好，ROE一路攀高，

股價從300元漲到1,300元。

毛利率下降有何關係呢！選股不用看毛利率。


Some people argue that comparing gross margins is not about comparing different industries, but rather comparing the company's performance against itself. For instance, Hon Hai had a high gross margin of 25% when it went public in 1991 from producing connectors but only earned a small profit. Later, its gross margin decreased to 6% per year from OEM, yet it made more money. Similarly, HTC sacrificed its gross margin to seize the market when it launched its machine-sea strategy, leading to a decline in gross margin each quarter, but with an increasing ROE due to rising mobile phone sales, its stock price rose from NT$300 to NT$1,300. Therefore, the decline in gross margin is irrelevant when selecting stocks.


有個同學堅持選股一定是要看毛利率，不看不行，

問他會不會因為毛利率下降而把股票賣掉？

又答不會。

既然不會為什麼要看呢！

同學老是在跟我爭辯一些自己也不遵守的原則。

請同學要來辯論之前請先把自己的原則執行5遍以上，

無窒礙難行之處了再來討論。


I had a student who insisted that stock selection must be based on gross margin. When I asked him if he would sell stocks because of a decline in gross profit margin, he answered no. So why bother watching it then? It seems that students often argue with me about principles that they themselves do not follow. Before engaging in a debate, it is important to implement your principles consistently at least five times.


第二、看一家公司的現金周轉不靈？

看現金流量表、利息保障倍數、流動比率、負債比...

都不如看盈再率有效。


Secondly, evaluate if the company has sufficient cash flow. This can be done by checking the cash flow statement, interest cover ratio, current ratio, debt ratio, among other factors. However, it is more effective to look at the PR% when assessing cash flow.


同學問為何我們不看負債比？

巴六點提到高ROE，低負債，

巴爺爺都這樣主張，為何我們不看？

他們認為負債比高的公司就不好。

也有人說銀行的負債特別大，

銀行的資產大部分是客戶的存款，屬於負債，

銀行的負債比高達90%，

他們就以為銀行股要改看ROA，淨利÷資產。

這些通通都是錯的！


The students asked why we don't consider the debt ratio. Buffett's six criteria mention high ROE and low debt, and Mr. Buffett advocates for this, so why don't we pay attention to it? They believe that companies with high debt ratios are risky. Some people argue that banks have particularly high debt because most of their assets are customer deposits, which are liabilities. The debt ratio of banks can reach up to 90%. They also suggest that the indicator for monitoring bank stocks should be changed to ROA, which is net profit divided by assets. However, all of these ideas are incorrect.


1. 公司可以靠高負債來賺錢。

主機板正是靠應付和應收帳款來賺利息錢，

若進貨銷貨全付現反而賺不到錢。


超商統一超、全家負債比70%，

它們都是收現金，為何負債比反而特別高？

開給廠商的貨款卻是3個月以後的票子，

為了賺利息。


1. Companies can generate income through high levels of debt. 

For instance, motherboard manufacturers can earn interest income by relying on accounts payable and accounts receivable. If they were to pay for purchases and sales in cash, they would not be able to generate this income.


Similarly, companies such as President Chain Store (2912.TW) and Taiwan FamilyMart (5903.TW) have a debt ratio of 70%. Although they receive cash, their debt ratio is high because they issue promissory notes to suppliers that are payable in 3 months in order to earn interest.



2. 負債比高的公司，風險就大？

不盡然如此，

有時候剛好相反，是業務風險低才可以高負債。

聯發科負債比22%，鴻海負債比63%，

請問誰的業務風險高？

當然是IC設計的聯發科業務風險高。

鴻海的業務風險其實很小，

它是全球最大代工廠，成本最低，

蘋果不給它做要給誰，跑不掉的。

鴻海因業務風險低，才可以高負債。


2. Do companies with high debt ratios have greater risks? 

Not necessarily! In fact, the opposite can be true. Only low business risk leads to high debt. For instance, MediaTek (2454.TW) has a debt ratio of 22%, while Hon Hai (2317.TW) has a debt ratio of 63%. Whose business risk is higher? MediaTek's integrated circuit design involves high risks, while Hon Hai's business risks are actually quite low. Hon Hai is the largest foundry with the lowest cost in the world. If Apple does not place orders with Hon Hai, who else could they turn to? Apple cannot easily replace Hon Hai. Hon Hai has taken on a significant amount of debt due to their low operating risks.



3. 收現金的公司應該要高負債。

誰有資格跟銀行借錢，有錢人還是窮人？

銀行借給頂新買帝寶的房貸成數99%，因為他還得起。

為何不給我99%？因為我還不起。

有錢人才可以高負債。


Companies that receive cash often have high levels of debt. 

Who is eligible to borrow money from banks - the rich or the poor? Banks lent 99% of the mortgage to Ting Hsin International to buy Dibao Mansion because they could afford it. Why wouldn't they give me 99%? Because I can't afford it. The wealthy are often able to take on high levels of debt.


超商負債比70%，西班牙電信負債比79%，

買庫藏股買到淨值為負，負債比超過100%，

都是收現金的公司，

收現金的公司若不懂得高負債，財務長失職。


President Chain Store has a debt ratio of 70%, while Telefónica's (TEF) debt ratio is 79%. The net assets of buying treasury stocks are negative, and the debt ratio exceeds 100%. All of these are cash collection companies. If a cash-receiving company does not understand the risks associated with high levels of debt, the CFO may be considered negligent.



我最喜歡買收現金、負債比超過100%，

杜邦公式卻說它會倒的公司。

杜邦公式把ROE拆成要看營收x毛利率x負債比，

認為負債比高就不好，實在荒謬，

殊不知收現金的公司負債比可超過100%，這其實是最好的公司。


My favorite companies to invest in are those that collect cash and have a debt ratio exceeding 100%. However, the DuPont formula predicts that these companies will fail. The formula breaks down ROE into sales x gross margin x debt ratio, but it's ridiculous to think that a high debt ratio is always bad. In fact, as many know, the debt-to-assets ratio of a cash-receiving company can exceed 100%, which actually indicates a strong company.


參閱：杜邦公式的荒謬

See: The absurdity of DuPont's formula


4. 股權也是一種負債，跟股東借錢，只是不用還而已，

不用還的錢有時候最貴。

公司到底是應該增加債權還是股權？

應該以誰的成本低而定。

不是增加負債就一定不好。


Equity represents a form of debt that can be borrowed from shareholders without the obligation of repayment. 

However, sometimes the money you don't have to pay back can be the most costly. Whether a company should increase its debt or equity should depend on which option has the lower cost. It's important to note that increasing debt doesn't necessarily come without benefits.


台積電2003年股息配3元，每股淨值30元，

等於跟股東借錢的利率10%，

若跟銀行借錢只要3％，

請問台積電應該跟誰借錢？

銀行！


In 2003, TSMC's dividend was NT$3 and its net asset value was NT$30, which is equivalent to a 10% interest rate for borrowing money from shareholders. If TSMC borrows money from banks, the interest rate is only 3%. Therefore, TSMC should borrow money from the bank.



舉債來提高ROE、配息、減資、買回庫藏股可不可以？

當然可以！當利率低時有何不可。


Can a company increase its debt to boost ROE, distribute dividends, reduce capital, and buy back shares? Absolutely! It's a viable option when interest rates are low.


有人把增加負債來提高ROE污名為財務操作，

這顯然是沒修過財務管理的結果，

外行人在望文生義，亂扯一通。


Some people stigmatize the use of increased debt to improve ROE as financial manipulation. This is clearly the result of not having studied financial management. Outsiders may misunderstand and make baseless claims.


選股為何不能看ROA？

因為ROA無法通盤比較。

台灣獲利最好的金控公司富邦金控2015年的ROA才1.2%，

電子股獲利普通的仁寶ROA都還有2.2%。


ROA may not be a dependable metric for selecting stocks due to the inability to make an apples-to-apples comparison of ROA values across different companies.


In 2015, Fubon Financial Holdings (2881.TW), the most profitable financial holding firm in Taiwan, recorded a ROA of 1.2%. Meanwhile, Compal (2024.TW), an electronics company, had a ROA of 2.2%, which falls below the industry average.



請問誰的獲利能力好？

仁寶ROE才9％，富邦金ROE16%。


Which company is more profitable? 

Fubon has a ROE of 16%, while Compal's ROE stands at 9%.



同樣是金融股一樣無法比較。

中壽ROA僅0.7%，台產ROA 6%，

壽險公司再怎麼會經營ROA不可能超過產險股。


Financial stocks cannot be compared in the same way. China Life Insurance (2823.TW) has an ROA of only 0.7%, while Taiwan Fire and Marine Insurance (2332.TW) have an ROA of 6%. No matter how well life insurance companies are managed, their ROA cannot surpass that of property and casualty insurance stocks.


金融業負債比高達9成，稍有閃失即可能破產，

在放款和投資上對於保本的要求特別高導致報酬率高不起來，ROA有1%就很好了。

製造業需負擔至少5%貸款利息，報酬率若無10%以上斷不會投入。

總之，ROA跟產業別有關，製造業遠高於金融業，產險高於壽險。

即便是金融股選股是看ROE，而非ROA。


The financial industry faces a significant challenge with a debt-to-assets ratio as high as 90%, making even minor setbacks potentially leading to bankruptcy. The stringent requirement for capital preservation in lending and investments hampers the ability to achieve high returns. In this context, a 1% ROA is considered satisfactory.


Conversely, the manufacturing industry must bear a minimum loan interest burden of 5%, and investments are only pursued if the return exceeds 10%. Essentially, the ROA varies across industries. The manufacturing industry typically exhibits a significantly higher ROA when compared to the financial industry. Furthermore, property and casualty insurance generally surpasses life insurance in terms of ROA performance.


選股也非看ROIC，淨利/(淨值+長債)

因ROIC在評估總經理的績效，

我們是股東，在意的是我們的錢的績效，ROE。


Stock selection should not be based solely on ROIC, which is a metric used to assess the performance of CEOs. As shareholders, our primary concern is how our investment is performing, and therefore, we should focus on ROE, i.e., net profit divided by total equity. ROE is a more relevant measure of a company's profitability from a shareholder's perspective.


5. 盈再表不看負債，同學問若公司大量舉債致無法負擔 ，

能否事先看出來 ?


5. The student asked whether we could determine in advance if a company has taken on too much debt, given that there was no information about debt on On's table.


大量舉債看是借短債還是長債？

若大量借短債怕周轉不靈，盈再率高較易周轉不靈。

大量借長債則擔心利息負擔重，獲利下降，將無法維持高ROE。

所以從盈再率及ROE即可看出過度舉債的問題。


When a company takes on a significant amount of debt, we need to consider whether it is short-term or long-term. If a large portion of the debt is short-term, it could lead to insufficient cash flow, particularly if the PR% is high, leading to a potential cash crunch. Conversely, if a company has taken on a lot of long-term debt, we may be concerned about the heavy interest burden it may incur and the potential impact on profitability, which could result in a decline in ROE. Therefore, we can assess the issue of excessive borrowing by analyzing the PR% and ROE.


選股，即便是金融股，也是看ROE，

不用看ROA跟負債比。


When selecting stocks, including financial stocks, it is important to prioritize ROE as a key metric. ROA and debt ratio are not as critical to monitor in the selection process.


第三、看作假帳或掏空？

看應收周轉率、存貨周轉率、現金流量

(包括營業活動現金或自由現金流量)… 

都不如看配息率息與盈再率有用。


Third, is there a risk of accounting fraud or embezzlement?


Checking the accounts receivable turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, and cash flow (including operating cash flow or free cash flow) is not as useful as monitoring the dividend payout ratio and PR%.


同學來踢館！同學看了別人的書來跟我們討教，

他說自由現金流量這個指標也可以用來檢定地雷股，

自由現金流量為負表示公司現金周轉會有問題。


After reading other books, a student challenged me and claimed that free cash flow could be utilized to verify risky stocks. He argued that if a company has negative free cash flow, it indicates that there could be issues with the company's cash flow.


什麼是自由現金流量？

現金流量表有3個活動：營業活動、投資活動、融資活動。

自由現金流量只拿前面2個活動來相加，營業活動+投資活動。

這個例子，薪水10萬元，去買了12萬元股票，

自由現金流量即10萬元－12萬元＝ -2萬元，

表示這家公司會周轉不靈。


What is free cash flow? Free cash flow is the sum of a company's operating activities and investment activities, which are reported in the cash flow statement. It excludes financing activities.


For instance, if a person earned a salary of $100,000 and invested $120,000 in stocks, the free cash flow would be calculated as $100,000 - $120,000 = -$20,000, indicating a cash shortage for the person.


自由現金流量跟盈再率是兩個非常相像的公式。

自由現金流量拿2個活動來相加，

盈再率則拿2個活動相除，投資活動÷營業活動。

同樣例子，買了12萬元股票÷薪水10萬元＝盈再率120%。


Free cash flow and PR% are two formulas that are similar in nature. However, they differ in their approach. Free cash flow is the sum of two activities, whereas PR% is the ratio of investment activities to business activities.


Using the same example, if a person invests $120,000 in stocks and earns a salary of $100,000, the PR% would be calculated as $120,000 ÷ $100,000 = 120%.


自由現金流量不足就是盈再率大於100%，

盈再率100%意指薪水10萬元去買10萬元股票，

剛剛好夠用還不會有事。


When a company has insufficient free cash flow, it means that it has negative free cash flow, which could be greater than 100% PR%. A PR% of 100% indicates that a person has invested an amount equal to their salary in stocks. It's a balanced situation where the cash flow remains unchanged.



薪水10萬元買了20萬元股票，差距 1 倍了才可能周轉不靈，

即盈再率大於200%才會有事。

自由現金流量這個理論是錯的，錯在結論下錯，

不是小於0，要小於 -1 倍才會有事。


If an individual invests $200,000 in stocks with a salary of $100,000, and the resulting PR% is over 200%, it could lead to a cash shortage. This indicates that the conclusion of the free cash flow theory would be incorrect. In reality, free cash flow must be less than negative one times the salary to indicate a cash flow problem.


同學跟我拗「自由現金流量小於 0，不是指一年就會有事，

而是要長期才會有事。」

問他長期要多久？同學說8年。

我說「好！我們就來8年巴巴看。」

剛剛的例子，薪水10萬元去買了12萬元股票，

用資產負債表寫出來就是這樣：

資(12萬長投)=債(2萬)+值(10萬)。

每年都不足2萬元，同學說8年，我給它100年，夠長了吧，

資產負債表變成這樣：

資(1,200萬長投)=債(200萬)+值(1,000萬)，

後面各加2個零而已，負債比才17%，

公司會不會有事呢？不會吧！

即便自由現金流量100年都不足，公司一樣不會有事。


A classmate argued with me, "If free cash flow is less than zero, it doesn't mean there will be a problem in just one year, but it will take a long time." I asked him how long is long-term, and he said eight years. So I said, "Okay! Let's wait for eight years and see." In the previous example, a salary of $100,000 was used to purchase $120,000 worth of stocks. It can be represented on the balance sheet as: Assets ($120,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($20,000) + Equity ($100,000). With an annual shortage of less than $20,000, my classmate said eight years, so I extended it to 100 years. The balance sheet would then look like this: Assets ($12,000,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($2,000,000) + Equity ($10,000,000), with two additional zeroes added. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 17%. Would the company be in trouble? I don't think so! Even if free cash flow is insufficient for 100 years, the company should still be fine.


自由現金流量為負，只表示負債會增加。

負債增加不表示負債比會惡化，

這個例子負債從2萬元增加到200萬元，可是負債比都僅17%。


A negative free cash flow indicates an increase in liabilities, but it does not necessarily mean that the debt ratio will worsen. In the given example, although the debt increased from $20,000 to $2 million, the debt ratio was only 17%. This means that even if the free cash flow remained negative for 100 years, the company would still not face any issues.


自由現金流量長期為負的公司很多，而且都是偉大的公司，

波克夏、台積電、鴻海就是，股價已漲了上萬倍。

這3家偉大的公司主張自由現金流量的人竟然認為會倒，

實在可笑。

同學哪天有機會跟老巴吃午餐時請務必幫我問一個問題

「波克夏會不會倒？」

或者坐火車碰到張忠謀時問他「台積電會不會周轉不靈？」

小謀必定翻你白眼。


Many great companies have experienced negative free cash flow for extended periods of time, including Berkshire Hathaway, TSMC, and Hon Hai, all of which have seen their stock prices increase tens of thousands of times. It is ridiculous to think that these three great companies would fall because of negative free cash flow. If you had the chance to have lunch with Mr. Buffett, you could ask him the question, "Will Berkshire fall?" Similarly, if you ask Morris Chang on a train, "Will TSMC have cash flow problems?" He will definitely roll his eyes at you.



相反的，TEF、GPS、TPR三家公司這幾年FCF皆正而穩定，

但股價大跌80%。


On the contrary, the three companies TEF, GPS, and TPR have all had positive and stable free cash flow in recent years. However, their stock prices have plummeted by 80%.


FCF為正股價仍可能大跌；

為負也不致負債比惡化，

顯見自由現金流量這個指標沒用。


A company can have a positive FCF, yet experience a sharp decline in its stock price. Conversely, a negative FCF may not necessarily lead to a deterioration in the company's debt ratio. Hence, the free cash flow indicator may not always be a reliable measure of a company's financial health.



這個同學又繼續拗，

同學問問題的步驟就3個：一嗆聲，二拗，三人身攻擊。

一開始只是有個想法未成熟就來嗆聲「你不對，我才對」。

被駁倒死不承認，二拗，

再被駁倒，三就人身攻擊「你不懂啦，沒有料！」


The classmate continued to argue using three steps: making a loud statement, stubbornly arguing, and attacking others personally. Initially, the classmate had an immature idea and made a loud statement, and refused to admit their mistake even when proven wrong. Then, they persisted in arguing stubbornly, and when that didn't work, they resorted to personal attacks, such as saying "You don't understand anything" or "You are ignorant!"


這位同學拗「不僅看自由現金流量，還要加看營業活動現金流量」，

加看營業活動一樣沒用！

從講稿9/21的例子來看，

雅新、SAY在出事之前的營業活動流量都是正數。

博達營業活動的應收帳款、存貨科目都可造假，

顯示仍然是無用的指標。


The student argued, "We should not only focus on free cash flow but also consider the cash flow from operating activities." However, adding operational activities is pointless. As evidenced by lecture 9/21, companies like Yahsin and SAY had positive cash flow from operating activities before their scandals were exposed. Additionally, companies like Procom can manipulate their accounts receivables and inventory accounts. Therefore, operational activities are not a reliable indicator.





以上3點都不如看ROE、配息率與盈再率，

只要高配息+低盈再率就保證財報不會有問題！

有人問我選股只按盈再表嗎？

是的，而且通常只看表頭，

表底下和右邊的表格還很少拉過來看。

怎麼可能這樣簡單？

是的，就這樣簡單，

我們有二位同學按按盈再表就移民澳洲去了。

我的方法就是簡單到令人不敢置信，

簡單找到讓你學不會！

為何簡單卻學不會？

因為你不敢置信啊！


The three aforementioned points are inferior to monitoring ROE, dividend payout ratio, and PR%. A high dividend payout and low PR% guarantee no financial report issues! When asked if I select stocks only based on On's table, I confirmed that I typically only look at the table header. I rarely refer to the tables below and to the right. It may seem too simple, but that's all there is to it. Two of our classmates immigrated to Australia after using On's table. My method is so simple that it may be hard to believe, making it easy to learn but difficult to master. Why is it easy to learn but hard to master? Because you are too skeptical !



為何只要高配息+低盈再率就保證財報不會有問題？

高配息等於老公每個月都把薪水交給老婆。

低盈再率表示藏私房錢的管道都被堵住了，

請問老公如何搞鬼？


Why is it that a high dividend payout ratio and low PR% guarantee that there will be no issues with the financial report? A high dividend payout ratio is equivalent to the husband giving all his wages to his wife every month. A low PR% means that the channels for hiding private funds have been blocked. How did the husband engage in fraudulent activities?


2012年傳出檢調去搜索漢唐，說董事長掏空3億元，

事發之後網路上一堆人放馬後砲說財報哪裡又哪裡有問題，

之前未曾聽聞他們說過財報有問題。

當時我是第一個在事發之後跳出來說漢唐被掏空但問題不嚴重，

股票不會變成壁紙。

為什麼敢如此打包票？人皆可殺還出來保證？


In 2012, it was reported that the authorities conducted a search of United Integrated Services (2404.TW), alleging that the chairman had embezzled NT$300 million. After the incident, many people on the internet criticized various aspects of the company's financial reports, but I had never heard them mention any issues prior to that. At that time, I was the first to come forward and state that although United Integrated Services had been embezzled, the problem was not severe enough to render the stock value worthless. Why was I able to make such a guarantee when everyone else was skeptical ? Would I risk my reputation to come forward like this ?



很簡單，漢唐盈再率僅20%，配息率90%，

怎麼可能有問題。

果然後來股價從34元跌到27元而已，我算的便宜價29元。


The PR% of United Integrated Services is only 20%, and its dividend payout ratio is as high as 90%. Therefore, it is unlikely that there would be a problem. Although the stock price dropped from NT$34 to NT$27, it is still close to the cheap price of NT$29 that I calculated.


2016年群聯也被查出作假帳，

我又第一個跳出來跟大家講問題不大！


In 2016, fraudulent accounts were discovered at Phison Electronics (8299.TW). Nonetheless, I was the first to reassure everyone that the problem was not significant.



很簡單，盈再率15%，配息率60%。

股價也僅從事發之前270元跌到204元，便宜價230元。


有人分析股票喜歡洋洋灑灑列出一堆指標，

以為這樣比較專業。

在我看來，那反而是外行，表示不曉得很多指標沒用。


Some individuals analyzing stocks prefer to list out numerous indicators, thinking that it makes them appear more professional. However, in my opinion, this approach indicates a lack of expertise, as they fail to recognize that many indicators are useless.



選股不用看毛利率、負債比大家都知道了嗎？

同學皆點頭稱是，

可是回到家裡自己分析股票，寫部落格，

又在那邊高毛利、低負債，

每次都這樣，上課都講過了，可是回到家就全部還給我。

幸好！我不用把學費還給他。

雜誌報導的投資素人，只要說他中碳幾年賺幾倍的

通通是我的學生，沒有例外，

奇怪的是，明明是我的學生可是絕口不提盈再率，

為什麼盈再率讓大家那麼難以啟齒呢？

因為它比較台嗎？

這是我教這堂課最大的挫折感！


When selecting stocks, monitoring the gross margin and debt ratio is not necessary, as I advised my students. All of them nodded in agreement. However, upon analyzing stocks and writing blogs at home, some of them focused on high gross profit and low debt. These students seemed to have ignored my previous teachings. Thankfully, I am not obligated to refund their tuition fees. In fact, I noticed that many individuals who claimed to have earned significant profits in China Steel Chemicals were actually my former students. However, it is odd that they failed to mention PR%. Perhaps, it is because PR% is not commonly discussed in Taiwan. This has been the biggest frustration in teaching this class!


我的學生去外面開課自立門戶，不承認是我的學生，

還把抄襲盈再率公式改為資本支出/營業現金流，

判斷式也是不可大於200%。

這等於把愛因斯坦的公式 e = mc^2 改成

X = YZ^2 然後說相對論是他發明的一樣，

這就是剽竊！

引用或改寫別人的觀念、公式和明牌而未註明出處者即為小偷。


One of my students, Wei, started teaching his own class outside and denied being my student. He even modified the PR% formula to "capital expenditures/operating cash flow," using the same criteria of not exceeding 200%. It's equivalent to altering Einstein's formula e = mc^2 to X = YZ^2 and claiming to have discovered relativity. This constitutes plagiarism!

Anyone who quotes or modifies someone else's ideas, formulas, or stock tips without acknowledging the source is a thief.






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