第一是ROE要穩定。
第二要能配得出現金，
最近一年盈再率小於80%，
最近3年配息率大於40%。
還有第三大條件買不會變、可以好很久的公司。
投資一家公司都希望可以維持高ROE，
長期抱下來才有複利效果，賺到最大錢。
不過在買股票的當時都覺得很好，
抱個一年半載之後，卻變得越來越差，
投資人會問到底什麼樣的公司才能好很久？
We have three main criteria for stock selection:
The first is that the ROE must be stable.
The second is that the company must have the ability to distribute cash dividends, with a PR% in the most recent year that is less than 80%, and a dividend payout ratio in the last three years that is greater than 40%.
The third condition is to purchase a company that will not change and can last for a long time. Investors hope to maintain a high ROE for the company they invest in, and to benefit from compound interest over the long term to maximize profits.
However, even if a stock appears promising at the time of purchase, it can deteriorate over time. Investors may wonder what type of company can remain successful for a prolonged period.
分析師拜訪公司，公司能夠告訴我們的
頂多未來3到6個月的出貨狀況，
可是我們想要知道的不僅3到6個月，
而是3-5年之後公司會不會如現在所預料的這麼好？
When analysts visit companies, the company may provide information about shipment status for the next 3 to 6 months at most. However, what we really need to know is not just the short-term outlook, but whether the company will perform as well as we anticipate in the next 3 to 5 years.
分析師除了拜訪公司之外還會去做產業研究，
從產業裡找出哪些是未來的明星產業，
若該產業最具發展潛力，裡頭的公司應該會快速成長，
可是卻常常發現，產業前景看好
跟公司會不會賺錢其實沒有必然的關係！
過去大家曾看好太陽能、面板、DRAM這些產業
後來發展趨勢跟當時所預料的其實差不多，
當初認為電視機和電腦螢幕都將換成面板，趨勢的確如此，
可是沒想到做面板的公司沒幾家賺錢。
這一點在年報上巴菲特也提到，
祂小時候萊特兄弟駕飛機飛越大西洋，
當時大家認為飛機工業的產值將變得很大，
果然如此，可是製造飛機的公司能獲利者寥寥可數。
In addition to visiting companies, analysts also conduct industry research to identify the future star industries. If an industry has significant potential, the companies within that industry should experience rapid growth. However, I have often noticed that a bright future for an industry does not necessarily guarantee profitability for the companies within it.
In the past, industries such as solar, LCD panels, and DRAM were highly optimistic. While the industry trends aligned with expectations at the time, few companies were able to turn a profit. For instance, we believed that both TV and computer screens would be replaced by panels, which turned out to be true. Nevertheless, only a few companies could make a profit from this trend.
Mr. Buffett addressed this issue in his annual report. He mentioned how the Wright brothers flew across the Atlantic when he was a kid, and at that time, people believed that the output value of the aircraft industry would be enormous. While the industry followed the expected trend, few companies were able to achieve profitability.
相反的那些能夠好很久的公司，
可口可樂、嬌生、中碳、大統益的產品都還蠻無聊的，
可樂的市場會不會快速成長？
不會，但可以維持高ROE。
嬌生做衛浴用品洗髮精、爽身粉會不會顯著成長？
也不會，卻能維持高ROE。
大統益做沙拉油的也不會大幅成長，一樣有高ROE。
In contrast, companies that have the potential to last a long time, such as Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), China Steel Chemical, and TTET Union products, may not be as exciting.
For instance, the market for Coca-Cola may not experience significant growth, but the company can maintain a high ROE. Similarly, Johnson and Johnson's shampoo and talcum powder may not have significant growth, but the company can maintain a high ROE. TTET Union's salad oil may not experience a significant increase in demand, but the company can still maintain a high ROE.
巴菲特昭示「能夠好很久的原則排除快速變遷的產業」
這是巴菲特改變我思想最大的地方。
我原先是外資電子股分析師，
當年問我怎麼選股？我一定會說，
從未來最有發展潛力的3C產品去挑就對了，
巴菲特告訴我這個想法是錯的！
In his 2007 annual report, the most insightful section of Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports, Mr. Buffett stated that "Our criterion of 'enduring' causes us to rule out companies in industries prone to rapid and continuous change." This idea completely changed the way I used to think.
As a former electronics analyst for a foreign securities company, I would have suggested investing in the most promising 3C (computers, communications, and consumer electronics) products. However, Mr. Buffett made me realize that this approach was flawed.
選股的重點不在看未來會如何，
而在確定現在會不會變。
The key to stock selection lies not in predicting the future, but in determining whether the current dominance will change.
這是一家公司可以好很久非常重要的特徵，
在電子股上特別明顯。
光碟片在CD-R時代中環跟錸德非常賺錢，
後來變DVD之後居然虧損累累，
這是電子股討厭的地方，一旦產品變了之後公司獲利就變了樣。
1. Irreplaceable products
This is a crucial characteristic for companies that can endure for a long time, particularly in the electronics industry.
For instance, CMC Magnetics (2323.TW) and Ritek (2349.TW) were highly profitable during the CD-R era, but suffered significant losses after the market shifted to DVDs.
This highlights the vulnerability of electronics stocks, where a shift in product can have a significant impact on a company's profitability.
現在我們最關心的，宏達電可以好很久嗎？
...抱歉，要改一下，宏達電可再好起來嗎？
變化太快講義來不及更改。
What we are most concerned about now is whether HTC can turnaround?
...Sorry, I need to make a change: Can HTC become good again?
The changes are happening too fast to update the handouts.
蘋果iPhone也越賣越差，變不出新花樣，
在中國市場每況愈下。
蘋果電腦、三星、Nokia、宏達電這4家公司
不是我們會想買的股票，因為產品會變。
Apple's iPhone has been experiencing a decline in sales in the Chinese market, and its new features are lacking, making it less attractive to consumers. Companies such as Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and HTC are not our preferred stocks as their products are prone to changes.
有人問最近巴菲特不是買了蘋果電腦嗎？
用同樣的方法選股，選出來的股票
70%一樣，30%有差異，很正常，
因每個人的知識背景有差異，見仁見智。
老巴以前認為蘋果會變，現在則覺得不會變，
對同一家公司看法改變也很常見。
蘋果電腦我認為是會變的公司。
Someone mentioned that Mr. Buffett recently purchased a large amount of Apple stock. Using the same method for selecting stocks, it is normal for 70% of the criteria to be the same and 30% to be different. This is because everyone has a different knowledge background and different opinions. While Buffett once thought that Apple would change, he now believes that it will remain durable. It is also common to change one's perception of the same company. Personally, I believe that Apple is a company that will continue to evolve.
同學不要按盈再表出來一看，
宏達電「合格」，預期報酬率26%，
就很興奮跳下去買。
合格出現之後底下來有紅色字提醒須再檢定公司會不會變。
我發現特地用紅色字標出的提示同學特別不會看！
宏達電和宸鴻這兩家公司的產品會變，不是我們會想買的公司。
Instead of just relying on the OK signal in On's table indicating a 26% expected return rate for HTC, it is important to consider the durability of the company before making a purchase decision. Despite the red reminder at the bottom of the table, it has been observed that students tend to ignore it. Given that the products of HTC and TPK Holding (3673.TW) are subject to change, these companies are not among our preferred choices.
搞不清楚公司產品，可以到官網去看，
盈再表往右邊拉可以找到公司的網址，
點進去可進入公司的官網，
上面有產品介紹，有照片，一看就了解公司在做什麼。
新日興做樞紐的，樞紐是什麼東西？
看照片來就清楚了。
If you are unfamiliar with a company's products, you can visit its official website for information. To access the website, simply drag the company name to the right of On's table. Once you arrive at the website, you can view product information, photos, and gain an understanding of the company's operations. For example, Shinzushing (3376.TW) manufactures notebook computer hinges. If you are unsure what a hinge is, you can simply view a photo on the website to get a clear idea.
巴菲特說「消費者特許權」，
一般的特許權是政府給的，像石油、菸酒公賣、電信、高鐵。
巴菲特說最好的特許權是消費者給的，
即市占率高的公司，A咖或龍頭股。
2. Unshakable industry leader
Buffett referred to "consumer franchise" which can be granted by the government, such as in the sale of oil, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as in telecommunications and high-speed rail. However, the best franchise rights are given by consumers, which means a company with a higher market share.
龍頭股的獲利和股價表現都比同業優秀，而且可以好很久。
底下這些公司就最好證明：
統一、大統益、卜蜂、台塑、中鋼、豐興、正新、台積電、
台達電、中華電、大立光、和泰車、中保、巨大、 統一超
Companies that demonstrate strong profitability and share price performance are often considered industry leaders that can maintain their position over the long term. The following companies serve as excellent examples:
Uni-President (1216.TW), TTET Union, Charoen Pokphand Taiwan (1215.TW), Formosa Plastics, China Steel, Fenghsin (2015.TW), Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW), TSMC, Delta Electronics, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW), Largan Precision, Hotai Motor (2207.TW), Taiwan Secom (9917.TW), Giant (9921.TW), President Chain Store
這些公司我們何時知道它們很好，從我們小時候就知道了，
直到現在都還很好，可以好很久。
When did we realize that these companies were good? We've known it since we were kids. And even now, they continue to perform well and are expected to last for a long time.
名牌也屬龍頭股，賣得越貴大家越搶著買的就是名牌。
逛百貨公司看到一支Burberry雨傘標價7,000元，
當場就很恭敬地把它放下來不敢打開，
心想這輩子用的雨傘全部加起來也不會超過7,000元。
轉身看它另外一個專櫃賣風衣標價7萬元，
突然覺得那把雨傘還蠻便宜的。
幾年後同學糾正我「麥可，你好久沒有去逛百貨公司了？」
才想起來，7,000元是2002年的價格。
同學說現在一把2萬元，這還是2013年的價格。
Well-known brands are often industry leaders, and their products are priced higher because consumers are willing to pay a premium for them. I once saw a Burberry umbrella in a department store priced at NT$7,000 and decided not to purchase it because it was too expensive. I thought to myself that I have never spent more than NT$7,000 on an umbrella in my entire life. However, when I looked at the prices of other items, such as long trench coats priced at NT$70,000, I began to think that the umbrella was actually quite cheap. Years later, one of my students corrected me and informed me that a Burberry umbrella now costs around NT$20,000, which is still a 2013 price.
逛百貨公司深受刺激，想買不起名牌，當股東總可以吧！
就去買Coach的股票，最慘時賠了40%，
賠的錢都可以買它3個包包了，
現在一想，當股東最貴，早知當時應該買包包。
Coach因獲利不佳股價大跌，自己的公司要自己救，
我又花了1萬元買它一個皮夾。越套越深！
Shopping in a department store can be painful for me, especially when I can't afford a famous brand. So, I decided to become a shareholder at least. I invested in Coach's stock, but unfortunately, I lost 40% of my investment at the worst. That could have bought me three wallets. Now, I realize that being a shareholder can be more expensive than buying a wallet. Due to Coach's poor profits, their stock price plummeted, and I had to save myself. But even as I was trying to cut my losses, I ended up buying another wallet for NT$10,000, and now I feel even more stuck.
公司產品的市場佔有率去哪裡查？
盈再表底下介紹這一格點進去，
跑到MoneyDJ網頁，有公司介紹的文章，
點入，文中會提到產品市占率。
Where can you check the market share of a company's products?
You can click on the "Introduction" button under Table 1 on On's website. This will take you to the MoneyDJ webpage, where there are articles about the company. By clicking on one of these articles, you can find information on the market share of the company's products.
台北悠遊卡公司也是，
幾年前找了一個連白癡去當董事長，
...我是在稱讚這家公司。
拿悠遊卡去高雄的超商可以刷，
拿高雄的捷運卡來台北最近能夠刷。
悠遊卡具獨占地位，
只是之前不曉得公司這麼好，
看到他居然可以去當董事長，才發現原來這麼好啊！
The Taipei EasyCard company is also one, a few years ago they hired someone even considered foolish as their chairman... I am praising this company. You can use the EasyCard to pay at convenience stores in Kaohsiung, and recently, you can use the Kaohsiung MRT card to pay in Taipei. The EasyCard has a monopoly position, but I didn't know the company was this good before. It wasn't until I saw that someone considered foolish could become their chairman that I realized how great they are!
相反的，經營團隊離開會讓人擔心的公司就可能會變。
郭台銘在鴻海的地位非常關鍵，
鴻海是一家好公司，可是就巴菲特的角度來看來，不是最好的公司。
On the contrary, if the management team leaves the company, investors become concerned as the company may undergo changes. Terry Guo's position in Hon Hai is crucial. While Hon Hai is a good company, it may not be the best company from Mr. Buffett's perspective.
工具機的亞崴，好幾年前總經理離職，帶了一票人離開，
當時大家都擔心會回過頭來競爭，
亞崴可能是一家好公司，但非最好公司。
2008年有個同學跟我說，
他和外圍的資金去買亞崴，買到可以當董監事，
打電話去公司問問題時跟他這樣嗆聲，
發言人都會把公司的狀況一五一十來跟他報告。
同學又跟工具機上下游業者搞好關係，
自認為對整個工具機產業掌握度非常高。
2008年世界經濟陷入危機，亞崴也受到影響獲利衰退，
股價跌到20幾元，
這位同學非常緊張，連續打了2通電話問我對亞崴的看法？
我完全沒研究，只好回他
「你問我，我要問誰？You ask me, me ask who？」
同學後來跟我說，當亞崴股價跌到最低20元的時候，
他就把整個股票賣光光，
賣完之後來股價就漲上來。
everal years ago, the general manager of AWEA Mechantronic (1530.TW), a machine tool manufacturer, left the company with a group of people.
At the time, there were concerns that they would come back to compete with the company. Although AWEA may be a good company, it is not the best company. In 2008, a student told me that he and his friends had purchased enough AWEA stocks to become directors and supervisors.
When he called the company to ask questions, he would confront the spokesperson with a sharp tone, who would then report the company's situation in detail to him.The student also established good relationships with industry participants both upstream and downstream of the machine tool industry and believed that he had a high level of understanding of the entire industry. During the 2008 global economic crisis, AWEA's profitability declined, and its stock price dropped to around NT$20. The student was very nervous and called me twice to ask for my opinion on AWEA. Since I had no expertise in this area, I replied, "You ask me, me ask who?", using a Taiwanese English expression. Later, the student informed me that he sold all of his AWEA shares when the stock price fell to its lowest point of NT$20. After he sold his shares, the stock price went up.
同時期中鋼的表現更差，
亞崴只是獲利衰退，中鋼則單季虧損，
中鋼股價跌到23元時我和巴班同學都跳進去買中鋼買得很高興，
請問為何這麼大的差別呢？
因為一個是A咖，一個是B咖，
中鋼是A咖，亞崴是B咖。
During the same period, China Steel's performance was poor, with a 25% loss, while AWEA's profits were only declining. When China Steel's stock price fell to NT$23, my students and I were delighted to buy China Steel shares. The reason for the big difference in performance is that China Steel is a first-tier company, while AWEA is a second-tier company.
同樣獲利衰退，中鋼是什麼原因呢？
景氣！
亞崴又是什麼問題呢？
可能是一些不為人所知的個別因素。
建議儘量買A咖，
因B咖一旦出事想破頭都不知道是什麼原因，
股票會抱不下去。
Why did China Steel suffer the same profit decline? Business recession! On the other hand, it's unclear what went wrong with AWEA, possibly due to unknown individual factors. That's why I suggest investing in first-tier companies as much as possible. When a second-tier company encounters a problem, even if you are at a loss for ideas and don't know why, it's best not to hold onto that stock for a long time.
之前有人不喜歡買A咖，以為股性牛皮，
事實證明不然，台積電、大立光這幾年就是大飆股。
只要高ROE，股價便宜，就一定會漲。
In the past, some investors avoided buying industry leaders because they believed their stock prices were stagnant. However, recent years have proven otherwise, as companies like TSMC and Largan have experienced significant growth. As long as a company's ROE is high and its stock price is undervalued, it is likely to rise.
分析師當了近30年，我最後的心得：
「越不用花時間研究就知道是好公司的，將來也不會出事！」
這意思是說，當分析師是一件沒有意義的事。
Based on my 30 years of experience as an analyst, I have come to the realization that sometimes it only takes a brief study to recognize a good company with a promising future. This indicates that the role of an analyst may be overrated.
買股票還是不免發生買的當時覺很好，
可是一年半載之後才發現變得越來越差，
這時你總是會問，它是一時月考考差還是永久變壞，
兩者如何區別？
什麼是月考考差？指景氣，
什麼是永久變壞？產品或產業地位改變。
When buying stocks, it is inevitable that we will feel good about it at the time, but after a year and a half, we may find that the company is getting worse. At this point, we always ask whether the decline is temporary or permanent. What is the difference between the two?
Temporary decline refers to changes in the business cycle, while permanent deterioration refers to changes in the product or industry position.
中鋼這幾年獲利慘澹，因景氣不佳，
不只中鋼，中國寶鋼、韓國浦項、美國Nucor
這4家煉鋼廠近幾年ROE都只有5％，
是全球性鋼鐵業景氣的問題。
In recent years, China Steel's earnings have been poor due to the economic downturn. Other companies in the steel industry such as Baosteel of China (600019.CN), Pohang Iron & Steel of South Korea (005490.KR), and Nucor (NUE) of the US have also experienced low ROE of only 5%. This downturn is reflective of a global slump in the steel industry.
宏達電獲利變赤字連連是什麼原因？
產業地位改變，
它最早是智慧手機第3大製造商，
現在淪落成第23大製造商。
What caused HTC to go from making profits to incurring losses?
There has been a shift in the industry landscape. Previously, HTC held the position of the third largest smartphone manufacturer, but now it has fallen to the 23rd spot.
3. 想3秒鐘就了解的公司
巴菲特說「簡單的企業」，
何謂「簡單」？
想3秒鐘就懂。
3. Easy to understand in 3 seconds
What did Mr. Buffett mean by "simple business"?
Easy to explain in 3 seconds.
巴菲特又說「要按每個人的能力範圍去選股」，
什麼是能力範圍呢？
具體量化不就是想3秒鐘嗎，
會拿出來問的就表示超出理解範圍。
What did Buffett mean by "choose stocks according to everyone's scope of competence"? Simply put, it means investing in companies that you understand well. If you have questions about a company, it may be outside your area of competence.
想3秒鐘就好，別想太久，不要想三天三夜喔。
普安做磁碟陣列控制器，這是什麼東西？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，
想不出來就不要理它了，這家公司跟你無關了。
Just think about it for 3 seconds, don't overthink it, don't spend three days and three nights on it.
What is Infortrend (2495.TW) doing? They manufacture disk array controllers.
One second, two seconds, three seconds...
If you can't figure it out, just ignore it. This company may not be relevant to you.
宏正做KVM切換器，這是什麼？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，想不出來就放棄。
ATEN International (6277.TW) manufactures KVM switches, which stands for Keyboard, Video, Mouse switch.
What does this mean? Take one second, two seconds, three seconds... If you don't know, it's okay to give up.
底下這些都是簡單的企業：
台塑？做塑膠的，
中鋼？鋼鐵，
統一超？超商，
巨大？腳踏車。
這一家最簡單，
台積電？晶圓代工。
馬上能夠講得出口的就是簡單的企業，就這樣判斷！
Here are some examples of straightforward businesses:
Formosa Plastics - manufacturing plastics
China Steel - producing steel
Presidential Chain - operating supermarkets
Giant - manufacturing bicycles
And here's the simplest one:
TSMC - providing IC foundry services.
You can immediately tell what each company does. So, use this approach to evaluate companies!
同學寫伊媚兒問我某支股票能否好很久？
她說想了好久！
建議她買簡單的企業，
還解釋什麼叫簡單？就是想3秒鐘。
會拿出來問的就不是簡單易懂的公司。
A student wrote me an email asking whether a certain stock is durable ?
She said she had been thinking about it for a long time.
I suggested that she invest in a simple company and explained what I meant by simple - a company that can be understood in three seconds.
If you have to ask about a company, then it may not be simple enough to understand easily.
她說「喔～醬子還是很難判斷！」
很難判斷就是答案了！
同學都已經把答案講出來了自己來還不知道。
很難判斷就不簡單啊。
She said, "Oh, it's still difficult to judge!"
When it's difficult to judge, that is the answer!
If the student have already explained the answer and she still doesn't know, then it's not a simple matter.
初學者問，他所知不多那豈不只能買那些少數的龍頭股？
若只懂得買那些少數的龍頭股反而比較安全，
而且股價也很會漲，這幾年台積電、大立光就是大飇股。
等到學得越多之後，能力範圍自然就廣了。
A beginner asks, if they don't know much, should they only buy a few leading stocks?
It may be safer to only buy those few leading stocks that they are familiar with, and these stocks may also have higher potential for growth. In recent years, TSMC and Largan have been very successful stocks.
As the beginner's knowledge and abilities grow, they can start to expand their investment options.
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theory)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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