便宜價僅表示股價便宜，
可是當大盤不好時，便宜還會更便宜。
2008年金融風暴許多股票跌到便宜價以下又再跌40%。
別以為選高ROE、高配息的股票，等到便宜才買，
就不會被斷頭，照樣會！
Cheap price only means that stock price is cheap, but during a market downturn, the prices can plummet even further. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, many stocks that were previously deemed cheap fell by an additional 40%. Relying solely on selecting stocks with high ROE and dividends and waiting for them to become cheap is not sufficient. It is still possible to experience a margin call with this approach.
我們還是希望能儘量買在最低價，
必須知道大盤位置在什麼地方？
判斷大盤位置的方法有2招：
一是GDP理論，
二是按盈再表看現在是普遍貴或淑。
To purchase stocks at the lowest possible price, it is essential to know the current market position. Two methods can be employed to evaluate the market's position:
The first method is the GDP Theorem.
The second method is to use On's table to assess whether most stocks are cheap or expensive.
從過去記錄發現GDP年增率跟大盤指數高度相關，
底下這張圖從1990年以來到現在，是相當完整的一張圖。
若這個現象過去都成立就別懷疑這次會不準，
每逢大盤高點老是有同學質疑GDP理論不準。
Based on historical data, I have observed a strong correlation between the annual GDP growth rate and the market index. The chart below provides a comprehensive picture of this trend from 1990 to the present day. Given that this phenomenon has been consistent in the past, there is no reason to doubt its accuracy this time around. Despite this, some individuals tend to question the accuracy of the GDP Theorem whenever the market has risen high.
GDP年增率和大盤指數在最低、最高點會同時出現，
我名之為GDP理論。
1991年5月指數來到最高6,365，
GDP年增率最高是第三季8.5%，
怎麼沒同季出現？
GDP是季資料，本表的指數為月資料，
兩組資料單位大小不一併排比較必然出現
提前一季或落後一季的誤差。
The GDP Theorem states that the annual GDP growth rate and the market index tend to reach their lowest and highest points at the same time. In May 1991, the market index peaked at 6,365, while the annual GDP growth rate was at its highest in the third quarter at 8.5%. One might question why these two factors did not coincide during the same quarter. This discrepancy can be explained by the fact that GDP is measured on a quarterly basis, whereas the indexes in the provided table are measured on a monthly basis. As a result, there is a one-quarter lag or lead between the two sets of data, resulting in the observed error.
接下來指數跌到1993年1月3,098，
GDP最低6.7%也一樣落在第一季。
The market index fell to 3,098 in January 1993. During this time, the GDP in the first quarter was at its lowest, reaching 6.7%.
指數又漲至1994年10月7,228，
GDP最高7.9%在第四季又同步了。
The market index rose to 7,228 in October 1994, while the GDP in the fourth quarter reached its highest point at 7.9%.
有人說GDP是落後指標？
不然，從上圖便知GDP和指數同步，從未落後，
GDP只是較晚公佈，
較晚公佈如何事先預知GDP？
YoY！用基期比較就可預先研判GDP。
Some people say that GDP is a lagging indicator. However, as can be seen from the above chart, GDP and the market index move in sync and have never lagged behind. The only delay is in the timing of the GDP announcement. How can we predict GDP in advance when it is announced later? YoY! By comparing with the base period, we can predict GDP trends in advance.
SARS在2003年第二季，當時就知那是最低點，
我還預言在SARS之後股市將上漲到隔年第二季，
為何敢如此斷言？
不是預估GDP，純粹只是YoY做基期比較而已。
SARS是2003年第二季GDP最低，
接下來景氣好轉GDP年增率將在哪一季達到最高？
當然是隔年第二季最高，
因為年增率是跟去年同期比較，
去年基期低，今年就會高。
指數則在2004年3月7,135達到最高，
跟第二季只差 1 個月，預估相當準確！
不必預估GDP，只要用YoY做基期比較即可。
In the second quarter of 2003, SARS outbreak occurred, and I predicted that it was the market's lowest point. I confidently asserted that the stock market would rise to its peak in the second quarter of the following year after SARS. How could I make such an accurate prediction? It was not a forecast of GDP, but merely a comparison of YoY's base period. When SARS hit, the GDP dropped to its lowest point in the second quarter of 2003. As the economy improved, the annual GDP growth rate would reach its highest point in the second quarter of the following year because the annual growth rate is compared to the same period last year. The base period was low last year, so it would be high this year. The market index reached its peak at 7,135 in March 2004, which was only one month away from the second quarter, making the prediction quite accurate!
There is no need to forecast GDP; using YoY for base period comparison is sufficient.
GDP理論過去有3次出入較大，
其中2次是2003年和2005年。這2次出現W底，
不過只要堅持買在GDP低點，
即便不是買在最低點，離底部也不會太遠。
2003年買在4,044離底部3,845不遠，
2005年買在5,565距低點5,255很近。
In the past, there were three significant deviations from the GDP Theorem, with two occurring in 2003 and 2005 where double W-bottoms were observed. However, if one remains committed to buying at a low GDP, even if it is not at the exact lowest point, it would not be too far from the bottom. For instance, the purchase made at 4,044 in 2003 was not far from the bottom of 3,845, while buying at 5,565 in 2005 was very close to the low of 5,255.
GDP理論同學質疑聲最大的是2010年這一次，
2010年第一季GDP年增率最高13.6%，
之後一路往下到2012年第二季才落底，走了2年半。
指數在2010年1月出現第一個頭部8,395，
之後跌到7,049，被QE2拉上來到9,221成第二個頭，
這是一個M頭。
這次就有人質疑GD理論不準了。
The most questioned instance of GDP Theorem by students occurred in 2010. The annual GDP growth rate was at its highest in the first quarter, reaching 13.6%. Subsequently, it continued to decline for two and a half years until the second quarter of 2012. In January 2010, the market index reached its first peak at 8,395, then dropped to 7,049 before being boosted by Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) to 9,221, forming a second peak in the shape of an "M". Despite this pattern, some individuals still raised doubts regarding the accuracy of the GDP Theorem.
準不準不要單看指數，而是要看類股表現才知。
這次是分2批跌，電子、金融、散裝輪從8,395起跌，
另一半石油和高ROE股則被QE2拉上去到9,221才跌。
電子股若撐到9,221才賣已經來不及了，跌了3成。
細看類股表現仍然符合GDP理論。
It is important not to rely solely on the index, but to also examine the performance of different sectors. In the case of the market downturn, it occurred in two stages, with electronics, finance, and bulk shipping experiencing a decline from the peak of 8,395. On the other hand, oil and high ROE stocks were lifted by QE2 to 9,221 before eventually dropping. Holding onto electronics stocks until 9,221 proved to be too late, resulting in a 30% decline. Nevertheless, a careful analysis of sector performance still aligns with the principles of GDP Theorem.
這次景氣高點到低點，2010年初到2012年第二季，
走了2年半才落底。
因為我們習慣用YoY判斷，若去年基期高就認為今年就落底了，
同學問這樣會不會在山腰時誤判落底而提早買進？
這當然有可能，
主計處給的第一版預估也是估景氣在2011年第一季落底。
可是判斷大盤高低點的方法有2招，除了GDP之外，
另一招是按盈再表看股票是否普遍貴了。
2011年第一季指數9,200股價普遍貴，
當時提醒同學小心，卻無人鳥我，
只好把心愛的中碳拿出來賣給大家看，賣在173元的高價。
This business cycle went from a high point to a low point, spanning from the beginning of 2010 to the second quarter of 2012, which took about two and a half years to reach the bottom. As we tend to make judgments on an annual basis, if last year's base period was high, we might mistakenly assume that it has fallen this year. A student once asked if we could misjudge the bottom of the index and buy stocks early on the halfway. Indeed, it is possible. Besides using GDP to determine highs and lows of the market, we can also refer to On's table to check if most stocks are expensive. In the first quarter of 2011, the index's highest share price reached 9,200, which was very expensive. I warned my students to be cautious at the time, but nobody listened to me. Therefore, I sold my beloved China Steel Chemical at a high price of NT$173 to show them the consequences.
這個狀況其實就是科斯托蘭尼所講的比喻，
經濟跟股市的關係等於主人在遛狗，
狗會跑來跑去即股價超漲超跌。
景氣在往下走，股價被QE2拉上去，結果呢？
總有一天會回來。
我們聽老科講這個比喻時都覺得津津有味，
可是身處在當時卻從不認為狗跑遠，
而是主人跑遠，回過頭來去追那隻狗。
This situation is a metaphor for Kostolany's philosophy on the relationship between the economy and the stock market, which he likens to an owner and his dog. Just as dogs run around, stock prices will go up and down. While the economy was declining, QE2 pushed up stock prices, but we knew that the dogs would come back eventually. When Kostolany talked about this metaphor, we were all captivated. However, in the market, we often forget that the dog can run too far, and instead of chasing the dog, we end up chasing after the owner who has already run away.
為何我們對GDP理論這麼重視，從過去的經驗來的，
2008年百年難得一見的金融風暴，
我們不是在2008年初才叫大家賣股票，而是2007年10月。
2007年指數漲到8,500即有同學反映找不到便宜的股票買，
我即提醒「那就少買一點。」
指數漲到最高點9,859之後的第三天我跳出來喊「高點到了」，
理由即依照主計處的預估GDP年增率高點在第三季，
所以遵守GDP理論的人賣在9,800，
在賣股時根本不知隔年會發生什麼事！
Why do I attach so much importance to GDP Theorem? It's because of my past experience. The financial crisis of 2008 was a rare occurrence in a century. In October 2007, we recommended that everyone sell their shares instead of waiting until early 2008. When the index rose to 8,500 in 2007, some students reported that they could not find cheap stocks to buy. I reminded them to "buy less." On the third day after the index rose to its highest point of 9,859, I jumped out and shouted "the high point is here" based on the estimated annual GDP growth rate of the DGBAS in the third quarter. People who followed the GDP Theorem sold at 9,800. When selling stocks, I don't know what will happen next year!
主計處在每年2月、5月、8月、11月的25日公布上一季GDP，
並提出未來一年4季預測。
2007年11月25日主計處預估2008年第三季GDP年增率將最低，
這個預估我們認同，因2007年第三季GDP最高，
隔年2008第三季應當最低。
當時有位同學說他股票賣完了想去休年假，
我鼓勵他「去休假吧，等中秋節再回來」。
On the 25th of February, May, August, and November each year, the DGBAS announces the GDP of the previous quarter and provides a forecast for the next year's four quarters. On November 25, 2007, the DGBAS estimated that the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2008 would be the lowest. I agreed with this estimate because the GDP in the third quarter of 2007 was the highest, so the third quarter of 2008 should be the lowest in the following year. At that time, a student said that he wanted to take annual leave after his stocks were sold out. I encouraged him to "go on vacation and come back after the Mid-Autumn Festival."
這次GDP低點於2009年第一季才落底，因次貸風暴比預期嚴重。
指數3,955則在2008年11月觸底，
而我們在第三季6,000點時進場。
買股票是漸進的過程，
6,000點買了一些股票被套牢了，會害怕，
等到不跌了再買一些，又被套更怕，
被套牢會怕是天經地義，誰無父母，誰不會怕？
就這樣買買停停，買到2009年1月買到手軟腳軟，
才發現居然一路上去了。
The GDP hit a low point in the first quarter of 2009 due to the subprime mortgage crisis being worse than expected. The index hit its bottom at 3,955 in November 2008. We began buying stocks in the third quarter at 6,000 points. Buying stocks is a gradual process, and I initially bought some stocks at 6,000 points but got stuck and became afraid. I waited to buy more until the price stabilized, and I became even more afraid. It's natural to be afraid of getting stuck, and who doesn't have parents that worry about this? Despite these fears, I continued to buy, pause, and buy again until January 2009, and I found that the stock prices had risen continuously.
抱到2009年6月6,000點時有同學說，他想先賣一趟，
因為4,000抱到6,000賺够了，
我跳出來阻止「續抱，GDP顯示年底才是高點。」
就這樣一路抱到2010年1月8,300賣掉一半。
我賣的那一半都跌，鴻海賣在150元，國泰金59元，中鋼30幾元。
高ROE股仍留著，
到2011年9,000點再把中碳拿出來賣掉，
這就是2008年整個過程。
When the index hit a low of 3,955 in November 2008, we began gradually buying stocks, entering at 6,000 points in the third quarter. However, I got stuck after buying some stocks at 6,000 points, and waited to buy more until the market stabilized. Despite the fear of getting stuck, we continued to buy until January 2009, when we realized that stocks had risen significantly. When we held the stocks at 6,000 points in June 2009, a student expressed interest in selling and taking a profit of 4,000 to 6,000. However, I advised holding on because GDP indicated that the end of the year would bring a high. As a result, we sold half of our shares at 8,300 in January 2010, just before prices for stocks such as Hon Hai (2317.TW), Cathay Financial Holdings (2882.TW), and China Steel (2002.TW) dropped significantly. High ROE stocks remained unchanged. Finally, in 2011, we sold China Steel Chemical at an index of 9,000 points. This was the entire process in 2008.
歷經本次金融風暴給我們一個啟示：
只要在GDP高點減碼下來，管它什麼股災都跟我無關！
做投資最怕遇到股災，如何避掉？
很簡單，遵守GDP理論！
After the financial turmoil, we were inspired: If we cut positions at the highest point of GDP, it doesn't matter what market crashes occur.
Investors are most afraid of market crashes, but how can they be avoided? It's very simple, just follow the GDP Theorem!
大家最關心的是現在GDP走勢如何？
Current GDP trends are a major concern for everyone.
https://mikeon88.666forum.com/t5-topic
不要猜測大盤趨勢，依GDP按表操課加減碼，
1. 7成股票會在GDP年增率最高點觸頂，最低點落底。
2. 在GDP年增率最高點減碼，但最多賣1/3。
若持股比例60%，可降至40%。
Instead of speculating on market trends, it is advisable to follow the GDP rule to adjust your shareholdings. Here are the guidelines:
Around 70% of stocks peak at the highest point of annual GDP growth rate and bottom at the lowest point.
Reduce investments when annual GDP growth rate is at its highest, and consider selling up to 1/3 of your shares. For example, if your shareholding ratio is 60%, you can reduce it to 40%.
最多賣1/3，不要大幅降低持股，
因跑短線不容易賺錢，
想賣在最高點或買在最低是不可能的，
在高低點的10%之內賣掉或買進就很厲害了。
高低點各去掉10%，能避掉的風險就少了20%，
所以不值得在指數跌幅30%以內去作波段。
When following the GDP rule, it is recommended to sell up to 1/3 of your holdings, without reducing them significantly. Short-term trading is not easy to make money, so it is impossible to sell at the highest point or buy at the lowest point. It is good enough to sell or buy within 10% of the highest and lowest points. By doing so, the avoidable risk is reduced by 20%, and it is not worth trading within a 30% drop in the index.
這是為何世界首富們即便遇到股災
無一會把持股殺來殺去，
只有小散戶沒幾張股票才窮緊張！
This is why even during financial crises, the wealthiest individuals do not trade their wealth. It is only retail investors who frequently and nervously trade their small stocks.
賣1/3已經足夠避掉大盤風險，
因為若大盤跌一半，
賣出的1/3可買到剩餘2/3持股等量的股數，
投資規模擴增一倍，
這是很大幅度的加碼。
Selling 1/3 of your shares is enough to avoid market risks because if the market falls by half, selling 1/3 of the shares can enable you to buy the same number of shares with the remaining 2/3 of your holdings. This doubles your investment size, which is a substantial increase.
要賣什麼股票？
賣貴的或股價表現不佳者。
若無，則平均賣。
What stocks to sell?
Sell the expensive ones or those with poor stock performance.
If not, then sell them evenly.
在GDP高點理論上股價應同步走高，
若該股仍然萎靡不振，
甚至長達好幾年一直表現不佳，
則可能隱藏一些不好的因素，
建議優先賣出。
According to the peak GDP theory, stock prices should rise in tandem. If a stock remains lackluster, or even underperforms consistently for several years, there may be some unfavorable factors at play. It is advisable to consider selling such stocks as a priority.
把股價表現不佳和貴的股票，
市場因素和基本面條件
共同列為減碼的考量可提高績效，
以免獨守空閨浪費青春。
Considering poor stock performance alongside high valuation, market factors, and fundamental conditions can enhance performance. This prevents wasting one's youth by clinging to underperforming stocks for years.
賣股不是賣賺最多的，因那樣等於在處罰好學生，
表現好反而被賣掉，最後留下滿手爛股。
Selling stocks should not be based on which ones make the most profit, as this is like punishing the good students. Selling stocks simply because they perform well can result in keeping only the bad stocks in hand.
若GDP不會判斷就不要判斷，請用直覺，
各位要知道我做人最隨和了，
你愛怎樣就怎樣！
用直覺，想買就買1/3，想賣就賣1/3，
買1/3可投資資金，賣掉1/3持股
股市在漲覺得手癢就買1/3，
股票下跌感到悶悶不樂，表示持股太多就賣1/3。
不要再來跟我吵GDP理論不準，
因為吵不能治手癢，想買就買，等到被電了自然止癢。
股市的電療是最好的老師，比我的苦口婆心有效。
If you're unsure how to judge GDP, don't worry, just follow your intuition. I'm an easygoing person and I believe you should do what you like. Intuitively, buy or sell 1/3 of your funds or holdings. If the stock market is rising, buy 1/3 of your investable funds. If the stocks are falling and you feel unhappy holding too many shares, sell 1/3 of your holdings. Stop arguing with me about whether the GDP theorem is correct. Arguing won't cure your itch to buy or sell. Buy whenever you want and wait until you feel electrified. The stock market is the best teacher, and its electrotherapy is more effective than my painstaking efforts.
持股比例加加減減很正常
央行守台幣匯率也不是堅持固定價位，而是一個區間，
即所謂的柳樹哲學
持股比例亦如是，不是100%或70%二個比例的選擇，
可以在兩者之間機動調整。
快樂投資最重要，不要為幾個百分點糾結。
It is common to adjust your shareholding ratio by increasing or decreasing it. The central bank does not insist on a fixed exchange rate for the Taiwan dollar but maintains a certain range, which is called the "willow philosophy." Similarly, the shareholding ratio can be flexibly adjusted between 100% and 70%. The most important thing is to enjoy investing and not to worry about a few percentage points.
唸過投資學的人都知道股票有2種風險，
系統性風險和非系統性風險，大盤和個股的風險。
大盤的風險跌起來也很要命，
2008年從9千8跌到3,955，跌幅6成就很嚇人。
如何避掉大盤的風險？
很簡單，一句話就解決了，即控制好持股比重。
Investors are aware of the two types of risks associated with stocks: systemic and unsystematic risks, which are related to the market and individual stocks, respectively. The risk of the broad market can be especially worrisome, as seen in the 60% drop in the index from 9,000 to 3,955 in 2008. To avoid market risks, it's crucial to control the proportion of stocks in your portfolio.
持股不是 0 跟 1 的問題，
不是只能買滿或賣光兩種狀況，
而是有中間地帶的，即控制好持股比例。
我們台灣的學生都被是非題和選擇題考壞掉了，
以為答案就是一個點，0 跟 1，買滿或賣光。
其實不然，問題的答案不是只有一個點。
我美股打算買100支，現在持股67支，
請問我是看漲還是跌？
我是看買的股票要漲，沒買的要跌！
Holding stocks isn't a binary decision of simply buying or selling. There's a middle ground, and that's controlling the shareholding ratio.
In Taiwan, students are often conditioned to think of test questions as true or false, or multiple-choice, leading them to believe that there is a single, definitive answer - a binary decision of 0 or 1, buy or sell. However, the reality is that many questions have more nuanced answers that cannot be reduced to a single point.
I currently hold 67 out of the 100 U.S. stocks I plan to purchase. Would you say I'm bullish or bearish? My belief is that the stocks I have purchased will rise while the ones I haven't purchased will fall.
我美股打算買100支，現在持股67支，
請問我是看漲還是跌？
我是看買的股票要漲，沒買的要跌！
I plan to buy 100 U.S. stocks, and now I hold 67 shares.
May I be bullish or bearish ?
I think the stocks that I bought will rise, and those that I haven't bought will fall !
不必爭論指數會到幾點，因必定猜不準。
也不用費心培養看盤功力。
我看了近30年的盤，天天在看盤，
可是一直覺得看盤功力跟第一天差不多。
我的意思是，第一天就很會看盤，只是後來沒有進步。
There's no need to argue over where the market index will reach because it's impossible to predict accurately. There's also no need to spend time and effort cultivating the skill of monitoring the stock market. I've been monitoring the market for nearly 30 years, every day, but I always feel that my ability to monitor the market is about the same as it was on the first day. What I mean is that I was already good at monitoring the market on the first day, but I haven't improved since then.
為何遵守GDP理論這麼重要？
這是從巴菲特班同學的經驗來的。
本班傑出校友謝士英教授，
高雄師範大學副教授，已退休。
Why is it so important to follow the GDP rule? This insight comes from the experience of my student, Shihying Sie, who was an outstanding alumnus of this class and went on to become an associate professor at Kaohsiung Normal University before retiring.
謝教授從2001年開始陸續投入500萬元買股，
重點、關鍵、轉捩點、人生的里程碑是2005年來上我的課，
股票一路抱到2007年9,800，資產來到2,000多萬元。
都沒賣2008年遇次貸風暴不幸縮水成700萬，
還是沒賣，資產現在又回升為2,000多萬元。
Since 2001, Professor Sie has invested NT$5 million. The turning point and milestone in his life was when he attended my course in 2005. In 2007, he held onto his shares as the market climbed all the way to 9,800 points, and his net assets exceeded NT$20 million. Despite the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis causing his net worth to shrink to NT$7 million, he held onto his holdings. His unsold shares have since rebounded to over NT$20 million.
幾年前同學會曾邀請謝教授來分享心得，
雖然他的結論是股票都不用賣，
好公司的股價股市總有一天會給予應有公道。
可是我們在旁邊聽覺得其實他的績效可以更好，
而且不用面對這麼大的煎熬。
A few years ago, the Alumni Association invited Professor Sie to share his investment experience. While he concluded that there was no need to sell stocks and that the stock price of a good company will eventually reflect its value, I believe that his performance could have been better and that he could have avoided such significant losses.
2008次貸風暴最嚴重的時刻，
他們幾位同學在台北火車站前有個小聚會，
那時的氣氛是風蕭蕭兮，易水寒。
儘管同學都在呼口號「我們是勇敢的巴菲特信徒，
不會害怕金融風暴！」
大夥勉強擠出笑容，但看得出來嘴角仍在微微地顫抖。
During the worst period of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, a small group of students gathered in front of Taipei Railway Station, but the atmosphere was bleak. Although they chanted slogans like "We are courageous followers of Buffett, and we are not afraid of financial crises!", their smiles were forced and the corners of their mouths trembled slightly.
謝教授說，他是自有資金，閒置資金，被套牢幾年無所謂，
可是如果老婆在旁邊應該會嘮叨個幾句，
試想一個家庭資產從2000變700，老婆會不會唸個沒完呢？
投資的目的是要來改善生活，而非讓家庭陷入危機。
Professor Sie stated that he invested with his idle funds and didn't mind being trapped for several years. However, if his wife was with him, she would nag about their family's assets dropping from NT$20 million to NT$7 million. The goal of investing is to enhance one's life, not to put the family in financial distress.
經過這次經驗，要懂得記取教訓。
怎麼做？很簡單，
只要遵守GDP理論在2007年9,800減碼下來，
賣個1/3就好，
即便碰到金融風暴資產縮水只會縮水到1,200萬，
比縮到700萬好很多。
We must learn from this experience and take it as a lesson. How can we do that? It's very simple. Just follow the GDP Theorem and reduce your holdings by 1/3 when it reaches 9,800 in 2007. Even during a financial crisis, your assets will only shrink to NT$12 million, which is much better than shrinking to NT$7 million.
1/3減碼下來的錢等低點4,000點再加碼回來，
幫他算過，現在資產將是3,000萬元，
較2,000萬賺得更多 ! !
One can add back 1/3 of the reduced amount when the stock price drops by 4,000 points. By following this strategy, the net assets can reach NT$30 million, which is more than the current net assets of NT$20 million.
有人問，若賣錯了，指數漲到3萬點？
沒關係，仍有2/3的股票跟著上去，還是最大赢家。
不用擔心我的方法不會掉到最壞的結果。
Someone asked, "What if he sells at the wrong time and the index rises to 30,000 points?"
It doesn't matter because he still has 2/3 of his holdings, and he will still be the biggest winner.
There is no need to worry that this method will lead to the worst possible outcome.
投資跟種果樹一樣，在颱風季節來臨之前，
修剪果樹，才不會被吹得東倒西歪。
Investment is the same as planting fruit trees. Before typhoon season, prune fruit tree to avoid shaking.
投資都會有心裡障礙：越漲越樂觀，越跌越悲觀。
高點不想賣，低點不敢買。
如何突破這個心理障礙？
很簡單，買個1/3或賣個1/3即容易進入，
持股前1/3即便亂買亂賣都不會有事。
亂買好了，1/3資金買在1萬點，後來崩盤跌到5千，
無妨，只要2/3買在5千點，買進成本6千6，
仍低於中間值7千5很多。
There are psychological barriers that hinder investment, such as becoming more optimistic as prices rise and more pessimistic as they fall. This leads to reluctance to sell at high points and fear of buying at low points. To break through this barrier, a simple solution is to buy or sell 1/3 of holdings. Even if the first 1/3 is bought or sold randomly, there will not be much impact. For instance, if 1/3 of funds are bought at 10,000 points and the price collapses to 5,000 points, it is still possible to purchase 2/3 at 5,000 points, with a total cost averaging to 6,000, which is much lower than the average of 7,500.
另一位傑出校友是Ray同學，就是陳宥聰，美股投資班老師。
他接受今周訪問表示，2008年買鴻海在50幾元，
台塑、台化在40多元，都買在不可思議的低點，
正是遵守GDP理論的成果。
Another outstanding alumnus is Ray, also known as Joe, the teacher of the US stock investment course. In an interview with Business Today magazine, he mentioned buying Hon Hai for NT$50 in 2008, as well as Formosa Plastics and Formosa Chemicals for more than NT$40, all at incredibly low prices. He attributed his success to following the GDP Theorem.
宥聰桑是本班的傳奇人物，
他的出身同我們一樣是上班族，
結婚之後和老婆買了一間房出租當包租公。
他說當房東有些瑣事有點討厭，
房客三更半夜忘了帶鑰匙會來敲門。
來上課時我跟他說，股票是比房地產更好的投資工具，
因買賣方便，
房子要賣時很不好賣，比如現在就很不好賣。
而且房子會漲，股票更會漲，
我買中碳8年賺6倍，房子不可能如此。
Joe is a legendary figure in our class. Like us, he works as an office worker. After he got married, he and his wife bought a house to rent out as a landlord. He mentioned that being a landlord can be annoying, especially when tenants forget their keys and knock on the door in the middle of the night. During class, I told him that stocks are a better investment tool than real estate because they are more convenient to trade. Houses are difficult to sell, as evidenced by the current market. Furthermore, if housing prices increase, stock prices are likely to follow suit. I personally invested in China Steel Chemical for 8 years and made 6 times the profit, something that is unlikely to be achieved through owning a rental property.
他聽進去了，甚至把房子賣掉專心做買股票，
一開始買台股，又去投資美股。
他的英文很爛，單字不會唸只會拼。
他跟我說A-P-P-L-E不錯，
想了一下才會意，I have a pen. I have an apple...
He listened to my advice and even sold his rental property to focus on buying stocks. He started by investing in Taiwan stocks and then expanded to US stocks. Despite his poor English pronunciation, he is able to spell words. He once told me that A-P-P-L-E is a good investment, and it took me a few seconds to understand the reference to the popular "pen-pineapple-apple-pen" meme.
英文這麼爛的人現在美股玩得非常厲害，
看他的美股入圍名單，有一些小公司AZN、AZO、BLL，
基本面如何都搞得一清二楚。
美股退稅密密麻麻全英文哪一格要填什麼都知道。
宥聰桑2008年也買高盛50元，老巴買在115元，
所以誰才是股神？
Despite his poor English skills, he has achieved great success with his US stock investments. When looking at his portfolio of US stocks, he holds shares in several smaller companies such as AZN, AZO, and BLL, and he has a solid understanding of their fundamentals. He is even able to navigate the US stock tax refund application form, which is in English, and fill it out correctly.
In 2008, Joe purchased shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) for $50, while Mr. Buffett bought it for $115. It's hard to say who the true stock guru is in this case.
宥聰桑2012年突然跟我說，他們家要移民澳洲，
我一聽心裡直想笑「英文這麼差的人也想移民澳洲！」
他說，他兩個小孩都逐漸長大，
將來若要留美每人花費1,000萬台幣。
與其這樣2,000萬就花掉了，倒不如去投資移民澳洲，
當時澳洲投資移民門檻只要2,300萬元台幣
買它政府公債就能取得資格。
隔年提高到1億2，所以他就趕快送件。
In 2012, Joe surprised me by announcing that his family would be immigrating to Australia. I couldn't help but snicker at his announcement, given his less-than-fluent English skills. However, he explained that as his two children grew older, the cost of sending them to study in the US would be around NT$10 million per person. Rather than spend NT$20 million in this way, he decided it would be more financially viable to invest in Australia and obtain an investment immigration visa. At that time, the investment threshold for an Australian visa was only NT$23 million, which could be achieved by purchasing government bonds. The following year, the threshold increased to NT$120 million, so he applied for the visa as soon as possible.
移民官面談時問他如何做投資？
他答「就是要高ROE，低盈再率。」
還跟移民官解釋何謂盈再率。
我跟宥聰講「記得提醒移民官，
還是要來上課，才能得到真傳。」
During the immigration interview, the officer asked him about his investment strategies. He replied, "I aim for high ROE and low PR%." He even explained to the immigration officer what PR% meant. I reminded Joe to tell the officer that he still needed to attend classes to learn more investment skills.
他們家就移民澳洲了。最傳奇是，
在移民澳洲之前，他們家沒有人去過。
我們都以為要到一個國家移民之前，
至少應先到當地玩過一趟，覺得環境不錯才會過去，
孰料沒去過就移民了，
所以我認為他們家很適合移民火星，
沒人去過的地方都敢去。
After that, his family successfully immigrated to Australia. What shocked us the most was that they had never visited Australia before their immigration. Most of us believe that before immigrating to a new country, one should at least visit once to assess whether the environment is suitable. Thus, I think his family is brave enough to immigrate to Mars, where no one has gone before.
宥聰桑曾很感慨地說，他們是一般家庭，
因加入巴菲特班，居然可以移民澳洲。
Joe once expressed with emotion that his family is an ordinary family. However, thanks to joining this lecture, he was able to immigrate to Australia.
我們巴菲特班專門在創造奇蹟，
我故意找英文很爛的人來教大家投資美股，
證明玩美股不用懂英文，只要會按盈再表即可。
Our Buffett class specializes in creating miracles. I purposely recruit people with poor English to teach everyone how to invest in US stocks. This proves that you don't need to understand English to play the US stock market, as long as you look up On's table.
本班第三位傑出校友是凱元，他是離投資最遠的人。
他說他高職畢業，可是高職怎麼唸出來的？
就是「起立，敬禮，老師好！」之後就趴下去睡覺。
看他在討論區寫的貼文錯字連篇，
我懷疑他趴下去睡覺應該不是從高職開始，而是國小。
The third outstanding alumnus of our class is Kaiyuen, who had the least investment knowledge at the beginning. He mentioned that he graduated from a vocational school, but it's hard to believe considering his lack of effort. He even joked that his usual routine in class was to stand up, salute, say "good morning, teacher!" and then sleep on the table. Judging from the numerous typos in his discussion posts, I suspect that he didn't graduate from a senior vocational school but perhaps an elementary school.
凱元雖然離投資最遠可是績效卻最好，
我美股自認為績效不錯了，他比我還好，因少踩到幾支地雷。
Although Kaiyuen is the least experienced in investment, he has achieved the best performance in the US stock market. He has been more successful than me because he rarely makes mistakes.
凱元2012年也跟我們去開戶買美股。
我很驚訝，懷疑他英文字母能否從A唸到Z？
他說「可以呀！」「A、Z。」
完全不懂英文的人現在投資全世界。
凱元三不五時會打電話報我明牌，而且是美股的明牌。
有一次他說「BLL很不錯」，BLL就是可口可樂鋁罐包裝工廠，
他說它的客戶有哪些，工廠在什麼地方。
我很吃驚問他怎麼知道這麼多？
他說到BLL官網看過，
我更駭然「官網不都是英文字嗎？」
他狀似輕鬆答「對啊！Google有翻譯呀，雖然翻得離離落落。」
巴菲特班偉大之處，把一個鐵工廠的銑床技師改造成國際投資家。
Kaiyuan opened a US stock investment account with us in 2012, despite having no prior investment experience. I was initially skeptical, wondering if he could even read the English alphabet from A to Z. To my surprise, he replied confidently, "A, Z." It is amazing to see people who do not know English at all invest in the global market. Kaiyuan would call me from time to time to share his stock recommendations. He once recommended BLL, a Coca-Cola aluminum can packaging plant, and even knew the company's customers and factory locations. When I asked him how he knew so much, he simply replied that he had checked the official BLL website, even though it was all in English. He used Google Translate, although he acknowledged that the translations were sometimes rough.
The greatness of the Buffett class lies in its ability to transform blue-collar workers, such as milling machine technicians in iron factories, into successful international investors.
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theorem)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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