2020年12月24日 星期四

講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)

IRR 股息折現公式是計算投資報酬率唯一正確的公式，

因它完整的把未來的股息和賣出價考慮進來，

其它算報酬率的方法都是錯的。

這幾年流行的現金殖利率是錯的報酬率算法，

因只算到第一年的股息。

中碳2003年殖利率7%，

我8年抱下來賺6倍，IRR為 31%(註)，

現金殖利率7%離實際報酬率很遠。


The IRR formula is the correct method for calculating return on investment as it considers both future dividends and selling prices. Other methods are incorrect. The popular cash yield method used in recent years is flawed as it only accounts for the dividend in the first year. For example, China Steel Chemical had a yield of 7% in 2003, but this is far from the actual rate of return as I earned six times my initial investment over eight years, resulting in an IRR of 31%.(Note)


註：投資一檔股票不是純粹的單利或複利，

而是單複利綜合，

股息是單利，未配出來的為複利，

IRR包含單利和複利才是報酬率正確算法。


Note: Investing in a stock involves a combination of simple and compound interest, rather than just one or the other. Dividends represent simple interest, while unallocated dividends represent compound interest. Therefore, the correct method for calculating the rate of return is to use IRR, which accounts for both simple and compound interest.



股價反映IRR還是現金殖利率？

像200元的中碳貴嗎？

按盈再表清楚顯示貴了，

可是現金殖利率還有 4%(=8.3息/200)，還會以為便宜。


Does a stock's price reflect its IRR or cash dividend yield?

For example, Is the price of NT$200 per share of China Steel Chemical expensive?

On's table clearly shows that it is expensive, but some still consider it cheap because of the 4% cash yield (= 8.3 dividend / 200).



2011年中碳173元接近貴了賣掉之後我在討論區公告週知，

在其它社群上看到居然還有網友在感謝我

「感謝洪老前輩把中碳賣出來才能讓他買在180元」，

這位網友為何180元還會去買中碳，

正是誤信現金殖利率的結果。


In 2011, I sold China Steel Chemical at the expensive price of NT$173 and announced it on a discussion forum. I noticed that netizens in other investment clubs thanked me, saying "Thank you, Uncle On, for selling China Steel Chemical so that we can buy it for NT$180." However, this netizen's purchase of China Steel Chemical for NT$180 was the result of a misunderstanding of cash yield.


現金殖利率會受到配息率高低和買回庫藏股而扭曲，

無法正確評估貴淑。

配息率高，現金殖利率也高，進而高估貴淑價


Cash dividend yield can be distorted by high payout ratios or stock buybacks, making it unreliable for accurately assessing whether a stock is overpriced or undervalued.

The high payout ratio will drive up the cash dividend yield, which may lead to a higher estimation of the stock's value, whether cheap or expensive.



中碳是本人的成名代表作之一，

2003年最早發掘，在「選股魔法書」介紹，

上課時三不五時提一下，巴班同學都賺飽飽。


One of my famous success stories is China Steel Chemical. I discovered it in early 2003 and included it in my "Magic Book". I also mentioned it in my class on numerous occasions, and all my students who invested in it made a fortune.


前一陣子老是有人來問「便宜價是否看現金殖利率6%？」

不是！因為股票不是收股息，全部在賺價差。

一般人以為跑短線在賺價差，長期投資則收股息，

錯！無論短線和長期投資都在賺價差，

配息的同時股價也會減下來，仍未賺到息，

須等股價漲回去了，填息才是賺到。

我買中碳總共賺了6倍，其中股息僅 1 倍，

都是因為股價漲了6倍賺來的。


Recently, many people have been asking whether a stock with a 6% cash dividend yield should be considered cheap. The answer is no. Stocks generate returns not from dividends, but entirely from capital gains. It’s often assumed that short-term trading focuses on realizing capital gains, while long-term investing is meant to generate dividends. Incorrect! Whether in short-term or long-term investing, the only objective is to profit from price appreciation. When dividends are paid, the stock price drops by the same amount, so you haven’t truly benefited from the dividend yet. You need to wait for the stock price to return to its pre-dividend level; only then can it be considered a real profit.

For example, I achieved a sixfold profit on my investment in China Steel Chemical, with only one-sixth derived from dividends; the entire profit was solely driven by a sixfold rise in the stock price.



有位學生為了這個問題在電話上跟我盧了10分鐘，

問他「有沒有聽過賺了股息，賠了價差？」

一個平常只要股價跌就唉唉叫的人

現在突然忘記最重要的價差？

他還跟我嗆聲他是第一志願的學生，

讓我發現人碰到投資就變笨。

他說他是長期投資者「只在意股息，不管價差。」

「這樣好了，」我回「把你買的股票給我，我每年把股息匯給你。」

這時他才悻悻然掛上電話。


A student spent 10 minutes on the phone pestering me about this issue.

I asked him, "Have you ever heard of earning dividends but losing on capital gains?"

This is a guy who complains every time stock prices drop, yet now suddenly seems to have dismissed the importance of capital gains.

He even boasted about being a student at a top university, which made me realize how stupid people can become when it comes to investing.

He insisted he was a long-term investor, saying, "I only care about dividends and don't care about capital gains."

So, I replied, "Here’s an idea: hand over the stocks you bought, and I’ll send you the dividends every year."

It was only then that he grudgingly hung up the phone.


坊間一堆不良理財達人和雜誌都在誤導大家，

說只要把錢存到殖利率5%的股票，

累積到每年可以領200萬元股息時就財務自由了！

一個年輕人如獲至寶的分享給我這個觀念。

我回「這不是一句廢話嗎？

問題是這需要4千萬元本金，從何而來？」

同學說他的月薪才3萬多元。

我說「你讀的那些書刊沒教嗎？怎麼跑來問我？」


There are so many lousy financial experts and magazines misleading people, claiming that simply investing in stocks with a 5% yield and accumulating enough to earn NT$2 million in annual dividends will lead to financial freedom.

A young man excitedly shared this idea with me, as if he had discovered a hidden treasure.

I replied, "Isn't this nonsense ? The real question is, where do you get the NT$40 million in principal needed for that ?"

This student then mentioned that his monthly salary is just over NT$30,000.

I responded, "Didn’t the books and magazines you read explain that? Why are you asking me instead ?"


那些所謂的達人不懂裝懂，

還說只要高配息都不用賣，

不管多貴都可以買！

是嗎？

中碳若買在200元，後來跌到100元，

配息4元，要配25年息才解套！

一個人大概只有3個25年，

第一個25年在唸書，唸一些沒用的書，

第二個25年在工作，大部分人工作附加價值都不高。

時間過得很快，我僅剩最後一個25年，

若仍在這裡跟大家「高ROE，低盈再率」就悲哀了，

驚覺不對，應該要去做一些更有意義的事，

所以就宣布不教了。

中碳買在200元的人25年則在等解套，豈不更可悲？ !


Those so-called experts know nothing but pretend they do. They even claim that as long as the dividend is high, there's no need to sell, and you can buy no matter how expensive it gets ! Really ? For instance, if one bought China Steel Chemical at NT$200, and the price subsequently dropped to NT$100, with a dividend yield of NT$4, it would take 25 years to break even! A person probably only has three sets of 25 years. During the first 25 years, one learns from books that are often of little use. During the next 25 years, most people work in jobs with low added value. Time flies by quickly, and I only have my last 25 years left. It would be miserable  if I were still here teaching everyone about "high ROE, low P/E ratios". Realizing this, I decided to do something more meaningful and announced that I would no longer teach. How sad it is for those who bought China Steel Chemical at NT$200 and have been waiting for 25 years to break even !



2024年9月5日中碳跌回我2011年賣出的還原股價，

應驗上面所言「中碳買在200元的人要配25年息才解套！」

當年未隨著我賣掉的人白抱了，漫長的13年4個月。

證明股票貴了要賣績效才會好 ，

股票貴了還買，想當盤子嗎 ? 

貴了也不賣，傻了嗎 ?


On September 5, 2024, China Steel Chemical's stock price returned to the adjusted level where I sold it back in 2011.

This confirms the earlier statement: "Anyone who bought China Steel Chemical at 200 dollars would need 25 years of dividends just to break even!"

Those who chose not to sell when I did have been stuck holding the stock for a long 13 years and 4 months.

This clearly demonstrates that selling overpriced stocks is essential for achieving strong performance.

Buying overpriced stocks—are you setting yourself up to be taken advantage of?

Not selling when it's expensive? Are you a fool ?


2015年理專猛推南非幣，說利率高。

結果呢？賠了匯差。


In 2015, financial advisers strongly recommended investing in the South African currency, Rand, due to its high interest rates. The outcome? Investors suffered significant exchange losses.


買房的人都在算租金報酬率，說3%很不錯。

卻忘了房價會跌。

2013年跟大家警告房價會跌，沒人相信，

都以為房價是無敵的，不可能跌。

這世界哪有只漲不跌的商品，

若有的話世上就不會有窮人了，

我們祖先在漢朝買一幢房子到現在大家不都發了嗎？


Housing investors are calculating rental returns and considering 3% to be a good rate. However, they seem to overlook the possibility of house prices falling. In 2013, I warned others that house prices were likely to decline, but nobody believed me. They all thought that house prices were invulnerable and would never decrease. However, if such a commodity existed, nobody would be poor in the world. Our ancestors purchased houses during the Han Dynasty and passed them down to the next generation. Does that mean everyone is wealthy now?


即便房價不跌每年也會折舊，

新成屋和老房子價差是很大的，

一樣是賺了股息賠了價差。


Even if house prices do not drop, they will still depreciate every year. The price difference between a new and an old house can be significant. The same applies to capital losses incurred to collect dividends.


最近又聽到怪論，理專慫恿客戶把房子拿去貸款，

說利率不到3%，拿來買高收益債的利率6%可以套利？

可以套利嗎？

用3%去套利6%的前提是6%的債券價格不跌才有，

可是高收債跟股市的漲跌同方向且同樣劇烈，

怎麼套利？


I recently came across a strange argument that bank advisors are encouraging customers to take out a mortgage on their homes at a 3% interest rate and invest in 6% high-yield bonds, claiming it as an arbitrage opportunity. But is it really an arbitrage opportunity? The premise of this strategy is based on the assumption that the price of 6% bonds will not decline, but high-yield bonds are known to fluctuate with the stock market and can be quite volatile. So, how can one actually arbitrage in this scenario?


以上種種問題俱是現金殖利率的毒害！

賺股息，賠了價差。


All of these issues can be a trap for cash yield. While you may collect dividends, you could also suffer from capital loss.




王一勛 2024-12-12


我是101年上課的同學，

當年課後...執著現金殖利率帶來穩定收益，

而非高預期報酬率強大複利，

海水退潮...才醒覺自己資金運用效率與巴班同學差之千里

略估上完課迄今13年資金運作XIRR僅約7.9%

巴班同學投資全球，公開持股買賣，進退有據，

績效表紀錄投資效益，明晰有力。

我告訴自己~日後要專心走這條路，

戒除投資惡習，成為億萬富翁 ! 

再過幾年就50歲，希望來得及。

之前的我偶爾潛水，沒真正走進這座寶山，實在是浪費時間。


I was a student in your class back in 2012.

At the time, I focused on achieving stable returns through cash dividend yields rather than harnessing the potential of high expected returns and the power of compounding.

When the tide went out, I finally realized just how inefficient my use of funds had been compared to classmates like those in the Buffett Class. After estimating, my funds have achieved an XIRR of only about 7.9% over the 13 years since attending the class.

The Buffett Class invests globally, openly discloses their holdings and trades with clear rationale, and maintains performance records that effectively demonstrate investment results—transparent and inspiring.

I’ve resolved to focus on this path moving forward, eliminate poor investment habits, and work towards becoming a billionaire.

In just a few more years, I’ll turn 50, and I hope it’s not too late. Looking back, I realize that while I occasionally dabbled in this treasure trove of knowledge, I never fully immersed myself in it—what a waste of time.




Yvens 2024-12-14


辛苦了...同學...

台泥...看到下落的ROE....

以及大陸台灣的建築業盛況不再...會

選擇全砍..


盛群..8位元與32位元MCU IC及其週邊元件，

這些都是跟大陸直接對打...沒有太高門檻...全砍


為何建議全砍...

因為至少拿回剩下的錢改去買真正巴班的標的...

時間拉長就能賺回來..

如果在那邊不捨，期待鹹魚翻身...

恐怕等到變魚焦了也黏鍋....


Great effort, my friend.

For Taiwan Cement, seeing the declining ROE and the end of the construction boom in both China and Taiwan, it’s better to sell it all.

For Holtek, with its 8-bit and 32-bit MCU ICs and related peripherals, these are directly competing with Chinese counterparts and have low entry barriers—so I’d recommend selling all of it as well.


Why suggest selling everything?

Because it’s better to take whatever remains and reinvest in real Buffett-style targets. Over the long run, you’ll earn it back.

If you remain reluctant and hold on, hoping for a turnaround, you might end up waiting until the "salted fish" turns to burnt fish stuck to the pan.



mikeon88 2024-12-14 


建議除中再保之外，其他全部賣掉，

跟隨巴菲特班的動作再進場。

同學誤用現金殖利率，忽視預期報酬率。

失之毫釐，差之千里，最終導致績效不佳。

把書架上的不良書籍報章雜誌全都清理掉，

現金殖利率的錯誤觀念害人匪淺。


I recommend selling everything except for China Reinsurance and re-entering the market by following the actions of Buffett’s class.

The key mistake is the misuse of the cash dividend yield and the neglect of the expected return.

Even a minor misjudgment can lead to significant errors, ultimately resulting in poor performance.

Clear out all the low-quality books, newspapers, and magazines from your shelves.

Misguided notions about dividend yield have caused considerable harm.



王一勛 2024-12-14


如果果樹夠多，不要重壓，不要跑來跑去，汰強留弱，

很多如果...就不會有今日的掙扎不捨。


If there are enough fruit trees, don’t over-concentrate, don’t keep jumping around, and don’t eliminate the strong while keeping the weak.

If only there had been more "ifs," today’s struggles and reluctance could have been avoided.



mikeon88 2024-12-14 


同學秀出8支持股僅1支可以，選對股機率不到30%

若只挑8支股票，勝率可能落在0%到62%之間，

績效表現非常糟糕，需要運氣好才勉強達到普通。

若選100檔股票，勝率區間縮小至21%到39%，

但績效依然很差。

增加樣本數只能縮小偏差範圍，

卻無法提高勝率。

勝率低即便買100支也無濟於事


同學的選股方法錯了，誤用現金殖利率。

當務之急是提高勝率，確實改用巴菲特方法來選股。


The student presented 8 selected stocks, with only 1 performing well, resulting in a stock-picking accuracy of less than 30%.

If only 8 stocks are chosen, the success rate could range from 0% to 62%, leading to very poor performance that would require good luck to barely achieve mediocrity.

If 100 stocks are chosen, the success rate narrows to a range of 21% to 39%, but the performance remains poor.

Increasing the sample size can only reduce sampling deviation but cannot improve the success rate.

A low success rate means that even buying 100 stocks would not make a difference.


The student's stock-picking method is incorrect, as she mistakenly used cash dividend yield.

The top priority should be to improve the success rate by adopting Buffett's stock-picking strategy.





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