2020年12月24日 星期四

講稿 6/21:高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)

投資主要在做兩件事:選高ROE的股票,等便宜時買。

第一件事挑高ROE的股票,即如何選股?

最簡單的方法就是看財報,

有人說財報是過去的事,股價不會反映過去,

而是反映未來。

的確,可是如何預知未來?

最可靠的方法還是看財報。

我們都知道台積電是一家好公司,U電則是爛公司,

兩家公司過去的紀錄越差越遠。

未來誰的表現會比較好?當然是台積電,

從過去的紀錄可以預知未來。


Two crucial steps for investing: choose stocks with a ROE and then buy them when the price is cheap. The simplest way to select stocks is by analyzing financial reports. Despite the claims that financial reports are outdated and do not provide an accurate picture of future stock performance, reviewing financial reports remains the most trustworthy method for predicting future stock performance. For instance, TSMC is recognized as a strong company while "U company" is considered weak. The gap between their past performance is expanding, making it likely that TSMC will continue to perform better in the future, as we can make predictions based on historical records.



關於選股,有人強調去拜訪公司,做實地調查。

我在當研究員時就常常在拜訪公司,而且都帶老外去拜訪,

上市公司的多高層都見過。

台積電上市前一個月張忠謀第一次接受獨家專訪

就是我和道瓊社記者二人去專訪的。


When it comes to choosing stocks, some stress the importance of visiting the company and conducting in-person evaluations. During my time as an analyst, I regularly visited companies and accompanied foreign visitors on tours. I conducted numerous interviews with senior managers of publicly traded companies. One notable instance was when I teamed up with a reporter from Dow Jones & Company to secure the first comprehensive interview with Morris Chang, a month prior to TSMC's initial public offering.


拜訪公司最大的盲點是公司都是報喜不報憂。

新光吳東進為何在1,000元買宏達電?

一定跟王雪紅交情特別好,

買之前應該問過,她永遠都很有信心。


A key disadvantage of visiting a company is that it may only showcase favorable information and hide negative information.

Why did Dongjing Wu, CEO of Shin Kong Life, buy HTC at a high cost of NT$1,000?

It could be due to his strong relationship with HTC CEO, Cher Wang.

He may have spoken with her before making the purchase, as she consistently showed confidence in her company.


選股有點像我們今天在座有100多位同學,互不認識,

要挑出誰是唸台大的,怎麼挑?

拜訪公司等於一個一個問,

請問這位同學「高中有沒有認真唸書?」

同學一定說有!可是看起來不太像。

「那位同學高中數學成績好不好?」

同學回「我數學最強了,理化還冠軍」,

可是無從查證。

這樣能不能找出考上台大的同學呢?

很難!


Identifying the students who attend National Taiwan University (NTU) among a group of over 100 unknown individuals is similar to selecting stocks. How can one determine which students attend NTU? Visiting the company is like asking each individual questions, such as "Did you study hard in high school?" If the individual answers yes, but does not appear to be a diligent student, it may not be a reliable indicator. Asking another student, "Did you perform well in high school math?" and if they reply "I excelled in mathematics and even won championships in physics and chemistry," it is still difficult to verify their claims. Determining which individuals are admitted to NTU is challenging.



最簡單的方法即請每個人把高中成績單來拿出來看,

若唸的是明星學校建中、北一女,成績又是前10名,

考上台大機率就比較高。

選股也是同樣意思,過去維持過高ROE紀錄,

未來仍然會維持高ROE的比例較高。


The simplest method is to request that each individual show their high school transcripts. If someone studied at a highly ranked school like Taipei Municipal Jianguo High School or Taipei First Girls High School and was in the top 10, their chances of being admitted to NTU are higher. Stock selection operates similarly; if a company maintains a high ROE record, there is a higher likelihood of continued high ROE in the future.


有人說,很多公司財報是假的,

的確,不只台股,美股、港股、中股都一堆假財報,

身為投資人要有本事把假財報看出來。

同學說「我沒有學過會計,我的會計是今天才學的。」

沒關係,這堂課專門教完全不懂會計的人

如何一眼去看出哪些是假的財報。


Some people say that many company financial reports are fake.

This is indeed true, not only for Taiwanese stocks but also for stocks in the US, Hong Kong, and China.

As an investor, you need to be able to identify false financial reports.

A student said, "I have never studied accounting before, I only learned about it today."

That's okay, this course is specifically designed to teach those who have no understanding of accounting how to easily identify fake financial reports.


財報分為年報和季報,

一般會計年度,年報12月底截止,

季報第一季3月底截止,第二季6月底,第三季9月底。

截止後公告財報,年報是3個月,3月底之前要公告。

季報一個半月,5月15號、8月15號、11月15號之前要公告。

公告之後盈再表會抓最新財報,

因為盈再表抓自券商的資料庫,到時候會更新。


Financial reports consist of annual and quarterly reports. The general accounting year ends on December 31st for the annual report and on March 31st, June 30th, and September 30th for the quarterly report, respectively. Financial reports are announced after the deadline. The annual report has a three-month deadline and must be announced before the end of March. The quarterly report has a one and a half month deadline and must be announced before May 15th, August 15th, and November 15th. After the announcement, On’s Table will retrieve the latest financial report from the broker’s database, which will be updated at that time.



同學剛拿到盈再表時別太興奮一直猛按,

一位新生從11按到99,問他按了多久?

他說按了2天,熬夜按了2天,

鼓勵他美股再去按按看。

不需要這樣一直按,怎麼選股?

可以參考本班的入圍名單和討論區同學的推薦。


Don't get too excited when you first receive On's table.

A freshman told me that when he first received On's table, he kept checking it from stock code 11 to 99. I asked him how long he looked up.

He said he stayed up all night for two days. I encouraged him to continue to check US stocks.

You don't have to keep clicking like this. How do you choose stocks?

You can refer to the class watchlist and classmates' suggestions in the discussion forum.



在討論區上面置頂的地方有各國入圍名單,

點進去,最上面是我的持股大公開,

接下來有世界各國的明牌。

本班是最國際化的投資社團,我們實際在投資全世界,

連智利、哥倫比亞的股票都有同學在推薦,

不知他在推薦真的還是假的?


The discussion forum has a watchlist for global markets at the top. By clicking on it, you will see my portfolio first, followed by recommendations for all world markets. This Buffett class is the most international investment club, as we invest globally. Some students have even recommended stocks from Chile and Colombia, which raises the question of the seriousness of their recommendations.



同學們,來投資全世界吧!

現在是網路時代,投資全世界很簡單,

只要開個美股帳戶就可以買到全世界股票,

世界最好的公司都到美國發行ADR,台積電即有ADR。

我只開了兩個戶頭台股和美股,

手上買了14個國的股票,台、美、日 港、中、星、英、德、

荷、瑞士、澳洲、巴西、加拿大、挪威。


Friends, let's come together and invest globally! In the internet age, it's easy to invest globally. All you need is a US stock account and you can purchase stocks from all over the world. The world's top companies issue American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in the US market, for instance, TSMC has an ADR. I only opened two accounts, one in Taiwan and one in the US, and I have invested in stocks from 14 countries through the US market, including the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.


投資美股的好處之一是可以規避匯率風險。

除了一半台幣一半美金可避掉風險,

百分之百美金投資到各國ADR也能分散匯率風險。

像我買到10幾國ADR,

10幾國貨幣升貶反映在ADR股價上,

匯率風險就分散掉了。

ADR股價=原股股價+匯差


One of the advantages of investing in U.S. stocks is that you can minimize exchange rate risk. In addition to splitting your investment between Taiwanese dollars and U.S. dollars to reduce risk, investing 100% in American Depository Receipts (ADRs) from various countries can also diversify exchange rate risk. For example, I own ADRs from over 10 countries, which means the fluctuations of more than 10 currencies are reflected in the ADR's share price, thereby diversifying the exchange rate risk. The share price of an ADR equals the original share price plus the exchange rate difference.


這幾年貨幣貶值很可怕,

俄國盧布、巴西里耳,甚至英鎊都貶值5成以上,

一輩子努力的成果一夕之間少掉一半,

有必要把匯率風險避掉。


In recent years, currency depreciation has been severe, with the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and even the British pound depreciating by over 50%. The hard-earned wealth of a lifetime can be wiped out in just one night. It's crucial to minimize exchange rate risk.



投資美股不用懂英文,只要會看盈再表就好,

因各國盈再表長得都一樣。

美國公司我們還比較熟,可口可樂、麥當勞都喝過都吃過,

可是中碳喝過嗎?一定沒有!


You don't need to be fluent in English to invest in US stocks, as long as you can interpret the numbers presented on On's table. The format of this information is the same across all global markets. We are more familiar with American companies. We drank Coca-Cola and ate McDonald's.

But, do you drink Chain Steel Chemical ? Of course not !


投資美股眼界將大開,談論的都是世界級的公司。

當賓士汽車的股東比較好呢還是裕隆汽車?


Investing in the US stock market offers broad prospects and the opportunity to understand world-class companies. Which is a better investment: Benz or Yulon Motors (2201.tw)?


若覺得前途茫茫,投資美股是一條最立即可行的出路,

在各國股市都能賺到錢的話就不會被困在一隅,

從此自由自在。


If you feel uncertain about the future, investing in US stocks is the most immediate and feasible way out. If you can make money in stock markets of different countries, you won't be trapped in one place. From then on, you will be free and at ease.



建議同學每天至少撥一點時間上討論區,因為非常精彩,

本班同學來自各行各業,臥虎藏龍,

大家都上過同樣的課,語言相通能進行深入討論。

巴菲特班從投資台股起,到征戰全世界股市,

全是同學群策群力,樂於分享的結果。


I recommend spending daily time on discussion forums, where you can gain valuable knowledge from a diverse group of students with various majors and experiences. By relying on the wisdom of respected figures like Mr. Buffett, we can engage in meaningful and comprehensive discussions about investing, ranging from Taiwan stocks to global markets. This achievement is a testament to the power of teamwork and the sharing of information.


學投資除了上課聽講之外,

平常實際操作的過程中必有很多疑惑產生,

跟同好討論是很重要的方法,

把問題提出來才知道聽懂多少。


In addition to attending classes to learn about investing, there will be many doubts that arise during actual practical operations. Discussions with like-minded individuals are an important method, as it's only by raising questions that I can determine how much you have understood.


AlexWu桑幫我們設計了網頁版盈再表,

可抓台美日港中等國盈再表,


https://stocks.ddns.net/US.aspx


Alex Wu helped us design the web version of the On's table, which can collect financial statements from Taiwan, the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, China, and other countries.


我的選股步驟如下,

從預期報酬率大於12%以上股票中

挑選常利大於5億元以及自己3秒即懂的股票列為入圍名單


My process for selecting stocks is as follows: I look for stocks with an expected return rate of over 12%, and among those, I choose stocks with a recurring net profit of more than $500 million and stocks that I can understand within 3 seconds. These selected stocks are then added to my watch list.



入圍股票輸入看盤軟體以便每日追蹤股價變化

我的看盤軟體是Stock Master

股價線圖很細膩,各國股票皆有。


Selected stocks are imported into a stock monitoring software for tracking daily price changes. My monitoring software is Stock Master, which has detailed stock price charts for stocks from various countries.



平時查看的股市新聞有:


The stock market news that I usually check includes:



1. finviz.com

看不懂英文者可透過瀏覽器漢文翻譯


For those who cannot understand English, they can use a browser translation tool to translate the website to Chinese.


https://finviz.com/news.ashx



2. Seeking Alpha



3. FBTweeter上點選國外財經新聞

4. 聚亨網和蘋果日報


3. Click on foreign financial news on Facebook and Twitter.

4. cnyes.com and tw.nextapple.com


5. 我完全不看台灣的財經媒體和書籍雜誌,

充斥意識形態,

還常找外行達人冒充專家,觀念錯誤,績效造假


I completely do not read Taiwan's financial media, books and magazines because they are filled with political ideologies and often feature non-experts posing as experts with wrong concepts and exaggerated performance records.


6. 也不看國內外財經部落格和討論區

盡是一些不懂的在問不懂的,不懂的人在教不懂的,

實在沒意思


6. I avoid reading both domestic and international financial blogs and discussion forums due to the prevalence of individuals who lack understanding and ask questions to others who also lack knowledge. Additionally, there are people who do not comprehend investments but still try to teach others, which is counterproductive and a waste of my time.


基本上我只靠一支手機在投資全世界,淨值超過5千萬元台幣


Essentially, I rely exclusively on my mobile phone for investing in the global market, and as of now, my net worth surpasses NT$50 million.


如何找到高ROE的股票?

第一步觀察過去5年ROE的趨勢。

過去5年ROE能保持一致、一致向上,

或景氣循環股平均大於15%以上,

這三種類型ROE才是我們有興趣的。


ROE忽高忽低和由高往下,不為我們喜歡。


How to find stocks with high ROE?

The first step is to observe the ROE trend over the past 5 years. We are interested in stocks with a consistent or upward trend in ROE over the past 5 years, or those with an average ROE above 15% for cyclical stocks.


We are not interested in stocks with fluctuating ROE or a downward trend.



ROE的重點在穩定而非在多高,

中華電的ROE其實不高,只有11%,

可是很穩定,這種股票可不可以買?

當然可以,股價便宜了就可以買。


The emphasis when assessing ROE should be on stability, not on the level of ROE. For instance, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW) may have a relatively low ROE of 11%, but it demonstrates consistent stability. If the stock price is cheap, this may be a good investment opportunity.



為什麼維持高ROE這麼重要?

因長期維持高ROE才有複利效果,忽高忽低則無。

底下2個式子,第一式億豐窗簾的ROE,每年都30幾%,

二式為友達的ROE忽高忽低,時而賺錢,時而虧損,

2式乘到最後越差越遠。


1.34 x 1.33 x 1.31 x 1.33 x 1.41 x 1.32 = 5.7793 (億豐)

1.05 x 1.08 x 0.71 x 1.14 x 1.20 x 1.30 = 1.4319 (友達)

...ROE 1999-2004


Maintaining a high ROE is crucial because it allows for the compound interest effect to be realized over a long period of time. High ROE stability is preferable to high volatility. For example, a company with an ROE of 30% per year (like Nienmade) is better than one like AUO (2409.TW) whose ROE fluctuates and leads to inconsistent profits. Over time, the latter type of ROE is likely to result in worse outcomes.


1.34 x 1.33 x 1.31 x 1.33 x 1.41 x 1.32 = 5.7793 (Nienmade)

1.05 x 1.08 x 0.71 x 1.14 x 1.20 x 1.30 = 1.4319 (AUO)

...ROE 1999-2004


看這2條式子請問會買哪一家?

連三歲小孩都知要買億豐,

可是市場上大部份人卻在追友達。


When comparing these two formulas, which would you choose to invest in? A three-year-old child would likely choose Nienmade, but most investors opt for AUO.



複利效果是賺大錢最快的方法,

要賺大錢必須靠兩個效果,複利效果跟倍數效果,

本益比買低賣高或融資是倍數效果,

要有倍數效果之前更重要的是找到一個能夠有複利效果的東西,

就股票而言高ROE為複利。

股息是單利,存回去才有複利,

等股價便宜時存回去複利效果才會大。

這是賺大錢最快的方法,巴菲特的方法是賺大錢最快的方法,

有人瞧不上巴菲特,認為賺錢速度太慢,

殊不知巴菲特是世界十大首富,靠投資致富第一人,

當然是祂的績效比其它方法都好非常多。


The compound interest effect is the quickest method to earn significant amounts of money. To achieve this, one must utilize two effects: compound interest and multiple effects. The PER buying lcheap and selling expensive, or leveraging finance are examples of multiple effects. However, finding something with a compound interest effect is more important before utilizing multiple effects. In the stock market, a high ROE provides compound interest. Dividends offer simple interest, but compounding only occurs when re-invested. When stock prices are cheap, the compounding effect will be greater. This is the quickest way to make big money, and Warren Buffett's method is the fastest method. Despite some people perceiving Warren Buffett as having a slow rate of making money, he is actually one of the top ten richest people in the world and the foremost individual to attain wealth through investing. His performance is significantly superior to other methods.



而且這是最可靠的複利效果,重點在「可靠」這兩個字。

中碳可以維持高ROE可不可靠?

有人說一家公司不可靠,

沒關係,就多買幾家,

把台積電、台達電、台塑、巨大等

能維持高ROE的股票一支一支買進來。

台股買不夠再買美股,可口可樂、3M、美國運通...等

股價便宜時通通買進來,

這樣就是能維持高ROE的投資組合,十分可靠了。


The most dependable form of compound interest is achieved by focusing on a high ROE. Is it trustworthy that China Steel Chemical can maintain a high ROE? Some argue that relying solely on one company is not dependable. But buying a few more companies, such as TSMC, Delta, Formosa Plastics, Giant, etc., that have a consistent high ROE will diversify the portfolio and increase reliability. If investing only in Taiwanese stocks is not enough, adding stocks from US companies such as Coca-Cola, 3M, American Express, etc., can also enhance the portfolio's reliability. By purchasing stocks when their prices are cheap, a reliable investment portfolio with a high ROE can be established.



這還是可以複製的方法,

巴菲特這樣做賺到大錢,

我們學著做也可以賺到大錢,

傳給孩子,他們一樣可以賺到大錢。

不過要傳給孩子之前記得還是要帶來上課,

自己不要亂教,帶來上課才能得到真傳。


This strategy is replicable. Buffett became wealthy by using this method, and we can do the same by following in his footsteps. We can then pass it on to our children and they too can attain wealth. However, before passing it on to them, it's important to ensure they receive proper education. Enrolling them in classes and avoiding inaccurate teachings is key to ensure that they receive the correct knowledge.


有人說波段操作不是賺得更快嗎?

這邊買,那邊賣,賺得更快,理論上完全正確,

可是古往今來沒有人做到過。

富比士的十大首富都是因為股票而有錢,

而且都是因股票長期持有而有錢,

從來沒有人因波段操作而成為首富。


Some people say that swing trading isn't a faster way to make money, buying here and selling there, it's theoretically correct but no one has ever done it. The top ten richest people in Forbes are wealthy because of stocks and they are wealthy because they held stocks long-term, no one has ever become a billionaire through swing trading.


台股也一樣,過去30年漲最多的股票是哪一支?

鴻海!1991年上市承銷價44.9元買

抱到現在2017年122元,

總共27年漲了436倍。

鴻海我們都買過,都波段操作,想必賺更多,

請問同學過去到現在買股票賺超過436倍的舉手?

無人!賺過超過436倍不會坐在這邊。


The same goes for Taiwan stocks. What was the stock that rose the most in the past 30 years? Hon Hai! Bought at an underwriting price of NT$44.9 in 1991, maintained at NT$122 in 2017, a total of 27 years has increased by 436 times. We all bought Hon Hai and swing traded, so we expected to make more. Can anyone here raise their hand if they made more than 436 times profit from buying stocks in the past to present? No one! Those who made more than 436 times profit wouldn't be sitting here.


鴻海是我進證券業碰到的第一家新上市股,

我是電子股研究員。

鴻海剛上市時舉辦法人說明會,

曾搭公司提供的巴士去土城看它的工廠,

從那時就知道鴻海是一家好公司,只是不曉得會這麼好而已,

當時若回去賣祖產來買鴻海,現在就不用在這邊跟大家講巴菲特!


Hon Hai was the first new listed stock I encountered when I entered the securities industry. I am an electronics stock analyst. Hon Hai held a company briefing during its initial public offering, and I took the bus provided by the company to visit its factory in Tucheng. I knew at the time that Hon Hai was a good company, but I didn't know it would be this successful. If I had sold my ancestral property to buy Hon Hai back then, there would be no need to mention Warren Buffett here!



鴻海27年漲了436倍年複利也才25%,

這幾年台灣的理財雜誌喜歡報導一些投資素人,

個個績效不僅比巴菲特好,甚至比漲最多的鴻海高,

有一個騙子竟然吹噓他10年賺36倍!

績效好到這樣應該上富比士雜誌才對,怎麼會是O周刊呢?

台灣是出產巴菲特最多的地方,

翻一翻財經雜誌每期都有一個新巴菲特,

他們的績效多半誇大,

媒體不查甚至默許造假,真是自甘墮落。


Revised English: Hon Hai's stock has increased 436 times over the course of 27 years, with an annual compound interest rate of just 25%. In recent years, financial magazines in Taiwan have reported on amateur investors who outperform Warren Buffett and even Hon Hai, which has seen the biggest increase. One fraudster, Wei, even claimed to have made 36 times their investment in just 10 years! This performance was remarkable enough to be featured in Forbes magazine, but instead was reported in Business Today. Taiwan is known for producing many Warren Buffetts. Every financial magazine seems to have a new one, but most of their performance records are exaggerated. The media doesn't verify these claims, and may even be complicit in these fraudulent activities, which is a true disgrace.


誇大績效在藥品叫賣假藥,

在社會新聞叫詐騙集團,

在理財雜誌竟然叫做投資達人?

這是很嚴重的問題,大家卻不當一回事兒。


This act of exaggeration in performance is referred to as selling counterfeit drugs. In social news, it is referred to as a scam. However, in financial magazines, they are referred to as "investment experts." This is a significant issue that everyone seems to be disregarding.


巴菲特的績效50年來年複利近20%,這是非常可怕的紀錄。

投資績效短期2-3年超過20%有可能,

長期50年20%以上其難度是指數級上升!

所以若有人宣稱績效每年超過20%以上就是在吹牛,

金融商品保證收益每年超過20%全是騙人!

不要說20%,15%就在騙人了。


Warren Buffett's performance has had an annual compound interest rate of nearly 20% over 50 years, which is an impressive accomplishment. While it may be possible for an investment to see returns exceeding 20% in the short term of 2-3 years, surpassing a 20% return over a period of 50 years is significantly more difficult. So, if someone claims to consistently have annual returns above 20%, they are likely exaggerating. Financial products that guarantee returns above 20% per year are likely to be scams. Even if they promise a return of 15%, it is likely that they are engaging in deceptive practices.


騙人的商品很多,最近流傳投資菲律賓賭場一年可以回本,

不用查即知是騙子。

還有M幣,半年回本,都是騙人的。


There is a abundance of fraudulent products available. Recently, a claim has been circulating that investing in a casino in the Philippines can provide a return within one year, however, this is easily proven false without investigation. Additionally, the M coins that guarantee a return on investment in half a year are also fraudulent.



看ROE要特別注意,

在不景氣年代表現比同業還更優秀往往就是好公司。

台塑和中碳都是塑化股,

2001年中碳ROE降到22%,台塑8%,

2001年是原料股不景氣的一年,

兩相比較中碳比台塑好一點。

台塑是大公司,當整個產業不景氣時難免受到影響。

中碳是一家小公司,賣利基性產品像雜酚油,

比較不受景氣影響。由此比較中碳比台塑好。


One key factor to consider when choosing stocks based on ROE is crucial. Firms that surpass their competitors during economic downturns are often deemed strong. Both Formosa Plastics and China Steel Chemical are involved in the plastic industry. In 2001, China Steel Chemical's ROE declined to 22% while Formosa Plastics' was at 8%. This was a tough year for companies in the raw materials sector. When comparing the two, China Steel Chemical appears to be the better option as it is a smaller company that sells niche products such as creosote, and therefore is less impacted by economic fluctuations. On the other hand, Formosa Plastics, as a large company, is more susceptible to changes in the industry as a whole. Hence, based on this comparison, China Steel Chemical appears to be the better choice.







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