股票高點賣掉之後，請擺現金或存定存，
不要再做任何投資。
有人說「擺現金，沒什麼收益啊？」
當萬物皆貴時，
股票報酬率可能為-20%，債券-15%，房地產-10%，...
現金報酬率 0 將是最高。
After selling stocks at a high price, please deposit the proceeds in cash or a deposit account. Refrain from making any further investments. Someone may argue, "Saving cash yields no gain?" However, during times when asset prices are high, stocks may generate a return of -20%, bonds -15%, and real estate -10%. In contrast, holding cash with 0% return may actually result in the highest return.
尤其別被拐去買什麼債券型基金，
投信和理專總會說「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均衡配置」，
報紙上常常出現誤導性標題
「美國債券殖利率飆升導致股市下跌」，
債券殖利率=債息/債券價格
債券殖利率上升是債券價格下跌，
居然連基本公式都不懂。
Avoid being enticed to invest in bond funds, especially by advice from fund companies and bank advisors who claim that a balanced allocation of assets between stocks and bonds is necessary. Misleading headlines like ‘Stocks Drop With Bonds After US Yield Spike’ often appear in newspapers. The bond yield formula is yield = interest rate / bond price, meaning rising bond yields result in falling bond prices. It's surprising that they don't understand this basic formula.
而且也不是債券導致股票下跌，只是同方向漲跌而已。
請看第一張圖：高收益債ETF(JNK)與道瓊走勢密切相關
股市高檔賣掉轉去買高收益債，這樣等於沒減碼。
Rising and falling trends in stocks and bonds are not causally related. In fact, they often move in the same direction. As shown in the first picture, the High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) closely follows the trends of the Dow Jones index. Switching to high-yield bonds after selling stocks at a high price does not significantly reduce your position since the two assets are highly correlated.
高收益債JNK是什麼的縮寫？
Junk，垃圾債，
即基本面較差公司發行的公司債。
我對投信業最不能諒解的，
居然把垃圾債券美其名為高收益債券，
這等於把麥可說成金城武。
What is the meaning of the abbreviation JNK, which stands for high yield bonds? JNK refers to junk or low-quality debt, specifically corporate bonds issued by companies with poor financial fundamentals. It is concerning that some fund companies refer to these low-quality bonds as high-yield bonds, which is akin to saying that Michael is Takeshi Kaneshiro, a completely inaccurate statement.
有人說他不是買高收益債，而是政府公債，不會跌，
公債怎麼不會跌，碰到國家危機照樣會跌。
圖二美國10年公債ETF(BIV)與道瓊走勢圖 ，
2008年次貸危機道瓊大跌，10年公債也跟著跌。
拉丁美洲、希臘發生債信危機時政府公債都跌翻掉。
There are those who claim that they do not invest in high-yield bonds, but rather in government bonds that are less prone to declines. However, this is a misconception since even government debt can fall, especially during a national crisis. As depicted in Figure 2, the U.S. 10-year public debt ETF (BIV) and the Dow Jones trend chart show that during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, both the Dow Jones and the 10-year bond experienced significant declines. Similarly, during the debt crises in Latin America and Greece, government bonds also plummeted.
同學拿第三張圖20年公債ETF(TILT)與道瓊走勢圖來反駁，
說次貸危機時美國20年公債和股市就是蹺蹺板，
股市大跌時20年公債反而上揚，問我如何解釋？
A student used the third chart, which features the 20-year Treasury ETF (TILT) and the Dow Jones chart, to counter the argument. During the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. 20-year public debt and the stock market moved like a seesaw. When the stock market experienced significant declines, the 20-year bond increased in value. How can this be explained ?
這很簡單，以上3張圖顯示資金撤退的先後順序。
股市和垃圾債最不穩定，一有風吹草動最先被撒出，
10年公債次之，
最後則為20年公債。
It is quite simple to understand. The three pictures presented above illustrate the sequence of capital withdrawal during market turbulence. The stock market and junk debt are the most volatile and are often the first to experience capital outflows. The next in line is the 10-year bond, followed by the 20-year public debt, which is the most stable and tends to be withdrawn last.
20年公債反而漲的原因，
2008年次貸危機僅止於金融業而已，
美國政府債信仍然無虞，才能印鈔票救市。
若惡化到如希臘債信危機一般，政府也破產了，
則20年公債也將難保，甚至美金也沒人要。
The reason for the rise in the 20-year public debt is that the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis was contained within the financial industry. The U.S. government's debt remained intact, and it was able to print money to rescue the market. However, if the situation deteriorates to the extent of the Greek debt crisis, the government may also face bankruptcy. In such a scenario, the 20-year public debt may become difficult to guarantee, and people may lose trust in the dollar.
投信所說的「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均衡配置」
這兩句根本自相矛盾。
若股債真是蹺蹺板，一個漲一個跌，
又均衡配置各押5成，
合起來績效為零，
扣掉管理費，總績效將是-3%，
這樣何必費工理財，不如存定存 !
The statement made by fund companies that "stocks and bonds are seesaws, and assets must be allocated in a balanced way" is contradictory. If stocks and bonds are indeed seesaws, where one goes up and the other goes down, allocating an equal amount to each asset would result in a combined performance of zero. After deducting management fees, the total performance would be negative, possibly as low as -3%. In light of this, it may seem pointless to manage money and it would be better to simply save it.
投信要投資人股票高點賣掉之後轉去買債券唯一的原因是
不願意資金被贖回去而抽不到管理費。
投信永遠看多，只知一味看多算哪門子專家？
找一條狗來問，也會「旺！旺！旺！」
The primary reason why fund companies recommend that investors sell stock funds at a high price and then switch to buying bonds is to prevent redemptions and potential loss of management fees.
Fund companies always maintain a bullish outlook, what kind of experts are they? Even asking a dog will result in a "woof woof woof" response.
台大企管系畢業的同學告訴我，
該校財務管理系名教授也是教「股債是蹺蹺板」，
差點讓我從椅子上跌下來。
請問李教授，股債都是公司發行的籌資工具，
差別在於一個不用還本，一個要還，
公司發生什麼事會讓一個漲，另一個跌？
A student who graduated from the Department of Business Administration at National Taiwan University told me that a well-known professor in the Financial Management department also teaches that "equity and debt are like a seesaw." This almost made me fall off my chair. Professor Li, stocks and bonds are simply financing tools issued by companies. The difference is that one does not require the repayment of principal, while the other must be repaid. How does what happens to the company affect one rising and the other falling?
問同學為何只會在討論區踢館，
而不敢向教授挑戰，
同學神回「因為成績是教授打的！」
I asked the students why they only challenged me in discussion forums but were hesitant to ask the professor. The student replied, "It's because the professor is the one who grades us!"
債券是固定收益，漲跌幅較小， 但仍跟股票一樣會跌。
想靠固定收益的債券發大財不容易，
沒必要在投資組合裡加入債券，
看好股市應全力押股票，何必把一部分錢花在漲幅較小的債券上！
看空股市則減碼擺現金，為何要買一樣會跌的債券？
Bonds are fixed-income securities, and while their price fluctuations are generally smaller than those of stocks, they can still decline. Making a significant profit from fixed-income bonds is challenging. Therefore, including bonds in a portfolio is not necessary. If you are optimistic about the stock market, you should invest all your money in stocks rather than allocating some to bonds with smaller potential gains. Conversely, if you are pessimistic about the stock market, you should reduce your stock holdings and keep cash instead of buying bonds that might also decrease in value.
許多人以為只要抱到最後就不會跌穩賺債息。
問題是一般人不會抱到最後，
債券ETF也無最後到期日，
所以仍得面對債券價格波動。
Many investors believe that as long as they hold the bonds until maturity, they will earn interest and avoid losses. However, the issue is that most investors do not hold the bonds until maturity, and bond ETFs do not have a specific maturity date. Therefore, investors still have to confront bond price fluctuations.
2021年2月同學提議買債券領息退休，
我當時即反對，因她們忽略債券價格也會下跌。
話才講完，BOND就連跌一年，跌了22%。
最後，買債券可以抗通膨安穩退休嗎？
2023年5月美國升息到高點，
Market Watch報導「經通膨調整後，股票是過去十年中唯一正報酬的資產」，
事實殘酷證明買債券不能抗通膨。
In February 2021, a few students suggested investing in bonds for generating retirement income. I immediately opposed the idea, as they failed to consider the possibility of bond prices declining. Soon after I expressed my opinion, bond prices began to fall and continued to do so for a year, resulting in a 22% decrease.
Ultimately, can purchasing bonds provide a reliable retirement income that can endure inflation and ensure a stable retirement? In May 2023, the United States raised interest rates to their highest point, and Market Watch reported that "Stocks were the only positive asset class over the last decade, adjusted for inflation." The harsh reality has demonstrated that buying bonds is not a reliable strategy to combat inflation.
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theory)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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