2020年12月24日 星期四

講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)

投資不要做融資，否則保證3-5年破產，

尤其要向年輕人呼籲千萬別融資，

年輕人血氣方剛，都愛融資殺過來殺過去才過癮。

同學問「破產還有保證的？」

是的！我來證明。

「破產還可證明？」同學紛紛投射出景仰的眼光。


Do not invest in financing, otherwise you will be guaranteed bankruptcy within 3-5 years. I especially urge young people not to engage in financing. Young people are full of vitality and they all enjoy financing to satisfy their urge for excitement. A student asked, "Are you sure about the guarantee of bankruptcy?" Yes! I will prove it. "Can bankruptcy be proven?" The students looked at me with admiration.


台股融資現在是6成，10元的股票只要出4元，券商借6元。

融資維持率是167%(=10/6)，

維持率掉到130%(=7.8/6)會被追繳，

亦即股價從10元跌到7.8元，跌22%。


Currently, the financing rate for Taiwan stocks is 60%, which means that for a stock priced at NT$10, investors only need to pay NT$4, while the brokerage firm lends them NT$6. The financing maintenance rate in this case is 167% (= 10/6). However, if the maintenance rate falls to 130% (= 7.8/6), a margin call will be triggered. This means that if the stock price drops from NT$10 to NT$7.8, a decline of 22%, investors will face a margin call.



第一次被追繳時還不會有事，

100萬元進去只賠了55萬元，一半多一點，

(100萬元融資，可買到股票250萬元(=100x10/4)，

跌22%等於賠了55萬元(=250x22%))，

從有錢階級變成中產階級，

本來吃200元便當，改成吃超商60元國民便當，

有些舊生中午200元便當不吃大概是這個原因。


You may be able to handle the first margin call if you have financed NT$1 million and only suffered a loss of NT$550,000, which is only half of your principal. With financing of NT$1 million, you can purchase stocks worth NT$2.5 million (= 100 x 10 / 4). A 22% drop in stock prices would result in a loss of NT$550,000 (= 250 x 22%). This means that you may go from being wealthy to being in the middle class. You may have been able to afford a NT$200 lunch box in the past, but now you can only afford a NT$60 lunch box from a supermarket. This may be why some former students do not bring expensive lunch boxes to class.



融資被斷頭一定心有不甘，會去借錢來補繳，

需借55萬元來補到滿。

當第二次又被斷頭就破產了還負債累累，

股價跌39%(=(1-22%)x(1-22%)-1)就二次追繳。


If you are forced to liquidate, you may be unwilling to give up and decide to borrow money to repay your debt. Let's say you need to borrow NT$550,000. However, if you are margin-called for a second time, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt. A second margin call will occur if the stock price drops by 39% (=(1-22%) x (1-22%)-1).


現在跌停板是10%，

跌2支停板第一次斷頭，財產腰斬。

跌4支停板即破產了還負債累累。


The current upper and lower limits for stock prices are set at 10%. If the stock price falls below the lower limit twice, a margin call will be triggered, and your wealth will be reduced by half. If the stock price falls below the lower limit by four times, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt.



股市或類股多久出現大盤或類股跌4成的機率：

2020年武漢肺炎

2015年QE泡沫

2008年次貸

2003年SARS

2001電子泡沫

1997亞洲風暴

大概每3-5年發生一次，符合景氣循環。


What is the likelihood of the stock market or a particular industry experiencing a 40% decline?

Several significant events have resulted in such declines in the past:

The 2020 Wuhan Pneumonia outbreak

The 2015 QE bubble

The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis

The 2013 SARS outbreak

The 2001 Electronics Bubble

The 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Historically, a decline of 40% in the stock market or a particular industry has occurred approximately every 3-5 years, coinciding with the business cycle.


2015年QE泡沫破裂，金磚四國和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。

俄國石油股本益比跌到1.4倍。

看葛拉漢的書，他是1929年代的人，

書中個股本益比也才4倍，

2015年金磚和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。


During the QE bubble burst in 2015, BRIC countries and raw material stocks experienced a decline that was even more severe than the one that occurred during the 1929 stock market crash. Russian oil stocks, for example, fell to a PER of only 1.4. This is in contrast to Graham's book, which described the 1929 crash and featured a PER of only 4. In 2015, the PER of BRIC countries and raw material stocks dropped even lower than the levels seen in 1929.



再講一個真實故事，發生在巴菲特班同學身上的

家庭倫理大悲劇。

2010年同學打電話來道謝，他加入巴班賺了很多錢，

去刷銀行存摺不敢相信戶頭裡有這麼多錢。

電話上我們在談天，聊著聊著突然提到

他前一年剛退休的老爸，

2009年退休之後就跟狐群狗黨鬼混。

他老爸的朋友跟他老爸講「現在股票很好賺，

「隨便當沖一下每月都可以撈個3-4萬元貼補家用。」

2009年指數從4,000漲到8,000那年，

當時國民黨又在宣傳簽了ECFA之後股市會3萬點，

之前還說三通股市會上萬點。

他老爸大為心動，

就在當時8,000多點時把他們家的房子拿去抵押

而且融資來做股票，效果加倍！


I'll tell you a true story about a student in my Buffett Class, and the tragedy that struck his family. In 2010, the student called to thank me. He had joined my class and made a lot of money, but when he checked his bank account, he couldn't believe how much money he had accumulated. As we chatted on the phone, he suddenly mentioned his father's retirement the previous year. His father had been spending his days idly with friends until one of them suggested day trading in stocks, claiming that it was very profitable and could earn him NT$30,000-40,000 a month. The stock market index had risen from 4,000 in 2009 to 8,000, and the Kuomintang party had been advocating that the market would reach 30,000 points after signing the ECFA. They had also said that the three-links with China would raise the index to 10,000 points. His father was convinced and, when the index exceeded 8,000, he even mortgaged the house to double his investment.


他老爸喜歡單押一支，想押對了也漲6倍就發了。

他跟老爸說「這樣會不會太危險？」

他老爸涉「市」未深「沒關係，融資只要善設停損就沒事！

我們股價跌5%就停損。」

他老爸第一支買亞泥，ECFA概念股，股價跌了5%停損。

第二支買南亞，老爸買的價格都是股價打了一個堅實底部，

第一根長紅、攻擊量出現即跳進去買，標準的技術分析，

結果又跌了5%，很果決的停損。

第三支買友達35元，後來跌破8元。


His father had a tendency to invest all of his money into a single stock, hoping to get rich quickly, just like I did when I made six times the profit in China Steel Chemical. The student expressed concern and asked if it was too risky. However, his father was new to investing and replied, "It doesn't matter, as long as we cut our losses. If the stock price falls by 5%, we cut our losses." His father's first investment was in Asian Cement (1102.TW), an ECFA play, but the stock price fell by 5% and he cut his losses. For his second investment, he bought Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW) at the stock price's bottom. Following technical analysis, he thought that as trading volume increased, the first red long candlestick indicated that the stock price may rise, so he jumped in. Unfortunately, the stock price fell by another 5%, and he again cut his losses decisively. For his third investment, he purchased AU Optronics (2409.TW) at NT$35, but later, the stock price fell below NT$8.


同學說「老爸愛玩股票勸也勸不聽。」

他想「就讓他去吧！只要他們兩人的錢各自管理，就相安無事。」

我聽到這裡越覺不對勁「你知道令尊大人賠掉多少錢了嗎？

股價跌5%，融資賠幾%？」


The student said, "My father enjoys trading stocks, but I can't talk him out of it."

He thought for a moment and replied, "As long as we manage our money separately, we can coexist peacefully."

But after hearing this, I realized that something was amiss. "Do you know how much money your father lost when he cut his losses at a 5% drop in stock price while using margin trading?"



融資是出4元可買到10元股票，

股價跌5%，融資賠了12.5%(=5%x10/4)。

老爸連錯3次已經賠了37%，

說到此一時心急我大聲嚷著

「你家客廳已經是別人的！」


The margin loan allowed buying a NT$10 stock with only NT$4. When the stock price fell by 5%, the financing loss was 12.5% (= 5% x 10 / 4). After his father made three wrong decisions, he had already lost 37%. When I heard this, I became anxious and shouted, "Your living room already belongs to someone else!"


同學愣了一秒，聲音一沉說

「要掛電話了，要跟老爸談判去了。」

半年不到，同學說「人家已經來看我們家的房子了！」

後來怎樣？他老爸還和老媽離婚，

他老媽看老爸玩融資不成樣，每天吵架，

老夫老妻因融資玩股票離婚收場。家破妻離，

子不曉得有沒有散？


The student was taken aback and his voice became somber. "I need to hang up and talk to my father."


In less than six months, the student said, "People are coming to look at my house!" What happened? His parents got divorced. His mother realized that his father was not good at margin trading, and they argued every day. The couple eventually divorced due to the losses incurred from margin trading. They lost their home and his mother left. I wonder if the student also left with him.


千萬不要玩融資，

玩融資、期貨、選擇權是悲劇的開始！


It is advisable to avoid margin trading, futures, or options as they can lead to tragedy.



建議同學把這句話當作家訓，

因為許多同學祖孫三代來上我的課，

他們的家庭日活動就是全家圍在一起按盈再表。

未來您的子弟一定很會做股票，

覺得自己無敵，就開始大玩融資、期貨、選擇權，

那將是悲劇的開始，

所以務必告誡小孩不要碰這些東西。


I suggest making this sentence a motto for your family. Many of my students bring their grandparents and grandchildren to my class, and their family activity is to gather around On's table. In the future, your children may become skilled investors in stocks. However, if they believe they are invincible and start dabbling in margin trading, futures, and options, it could be the beginning of a tragic story. Therefore, please make sure to caution your children against getting involved in these risky activities.


社會新聞，只要投資失利燒炭自殺，

一定都是玩融資、期貨、選擇權。

搞到燒炭自殺必定是負債累累還不起，

投資會負債累累一定玩融資、期貨、選擇權。

現股買進不可能燒炭自殺，

即便全踩到地雷也僅財產歸零而已，

再找個工作，下個月發薪水時就站起來。


Whenever there is news of an investor committing suicide, it is often associated with margin trading, futures, and options. These high-risk investments can lead to heavy debts and ultimately tragedy. Without financing, investment failures are unlikely to result in suicide. Even if all your stocks turn out to be a complete loss, your wealth may return to zero but it won't lead to heavy debts. In such cases, finding a job can help you restart and recover on your next payday.


融資者一開始都信誓旦旦，

一定會等等等到最低點再全押！

問題是誰知道哪裡最低？

2008年9,800賣掉夠高竿了吧，

等到6,000很低了吧，

融資買進跌到4,000一樣斷頭。


Margin traders often claim that they will wait until the stock price hits its lowest point before going all-in. However, the problem is that no one can accurately predict the exact bottom of a stock's price. For example, in 2008, you sold your stock for 9,800 and then repurchased it for 6,000, demonstrating your skill and patience in trading. However, even if the stock price later dropped to 4,000, you would still be at risk of a margin call.


如果上述故事還不夠恐怖，再補充一個，

台中同學告訴我的故事。

同學朋友的大舅子，

(奇怪！這種事情都發生在朋友身上)，

電子公司經理，一開始有一桶金，

現股買來買去，覺得不過癮，

融資殺來殺去，很快被斷頭，不敢讓家人知道，

老婆看到追繳令寄來才知，

和娘家籌了一筆錢把股票贖回來，

剩下一點錢。營業員跟他說去玩選擇權，

因為可以小搏大！

他真的去給它以小搏大，

更快的就賠光了還負債累累。


If the previous story wasn't scary enough, let me share another one with you.

This story was told by a student of mine from Taichung. It's about the brother-in-law of one of his friends.

(Strange! This kind of thing only happens to friends, right?)

This person was a manager of an electronics company and had a lot of money to begin with. However, he wasn't satisfied with just buying stocks with his own money. He started margin trading and was quickly margin-called, but he was too afraid to let his family know about it.

His wife only found out when she saw the margin call notice. She raised some money with the help of her family to try and redeem the stocks.

After paying off most of the debts, they had a little bit of money left. The broker suggested that he try playing options, as it could yield big wins with small bets.

He went in and lost everything, ending up in heavy debt.



這下子還不起了，大舅子一個人開車到大肚山燒炭自殺。

這位仁兄一輩子做人失敗到底，

融資失敗，

玩選擇權失敗，

連燒炭自殺都失敗，

被救回來成了植物人。

最倒楣的是他的老婆！


The brother-in-law was unable to repay his debts and drove alone to Dadu Mountain to commit suicide by burning charcoal.

This man experienced a series of failures in his life - margin trading, playing options, and even suicide.

However, his suicide attempt was unsuccessful and he was rescued, but he was left in a vegetative state.

The most unfortunate person in this situation is his wife.


我對於哪個單位大打廣告宣傳玩選擇權

非常不以為然，

捷運忠孝復興站長長電扶梯由上到下貼滿廣告，

叫人去以小搏大。

期貨選擇權原是給人避險的工具，

那個單位竟然慫恿散戶鋌而走險，真是無知。


咦！教室寂靜無聲，氣氛變得十分凝重。


I strongly oppose the authorities' active promotion of futures and options trading among investors. The escalators at Zhongsiao Fusing Station of MRT are plastered with advertisements enticing investors to make small bets and reap big rewards. However, futures and options are intended for hedging, not for gambling. The authorities are misguided in encouraging retail investors to take risks.


The classroom fell silent and the atmosphere turned solemn.


上述所談的都是融資斷頭悲劇，

有聰明人就去借不會被斷頭的

公教信用貸款和房子抵押

認為只要自身薪水夠高，

或股票殖利率足以償還貸款利息

即可以借錢投資，

這是嚴重錯誤的想法。


The aforementioned issues revolve around the tragic outcomes of margin calls. Certain individuals, deeming themselves smart, choose safer alternatives like public service credit loans and mortgage loans to steer clear of the repercussions of margin calls. They hold the belief that as long as their salary is substantial or the dividend yield from stocks can offset the loan interest, borrowing money for investment is secure. Nonetheless, this notion is severely flawed.


不可以借錢投資的原因

從來不是貸款利率低或現金流的問題，

而是股價常常會大跌。

自有資金500萬元，借錢500萬元，

全部買滿股票之後遇到2020年3月股災跌了40%，

即賠了8成 ，馬上從天堂掉到地獄。


不管借什麼錢，融資、公教信貸、房子抵押

都是賠掉8成，沒啥區別


The reasons for not being able to borrow money for investment

are never about loan interest rates or cash flow issues,

but rather the frequent significant drops in stock prices.

With personal funds of NT$5 million and borrowing another 5 million,

fully investing in stocks and encountering a 40% drop during the March 2020 stock market crash,

results in an 80% loss, plummeting from heaven to hell instantly.


Regardless of the source of the borrowed money—whether it's financing, public service loans, or mortgage on a house—

the outcome remains the same: an 80% loss, with little difference.


關鍵在於波動大小，

銀行願意借7成房貸因為房價通常不太會暴跌。

不管是個人和公司，

凡是波動大的項目即不可借錢投入，

產品價格波動大、現金流不穩定，或資本密集

應該用自有資金因應。


The key lies in the degree of volatility. The bank is willing to lend up to 70% of the mortgage because house prices typically do not undergo significant declines. Whether for individuals or companies, it's not advisable to invest borrowed money in highly volatile matters. Products with significant price fluctuations, unstable cash flows, or requiring substantial capital should be managed using one's own funds.


台積電負債比低僅40%，因為晶圓代工產品價格波動大、

景氣循環明顯，以及資本密集。

鴻海負債比高些60%，因為蘋果的訂單穩定


The debt ratio of TSMC is low at only 40% due to the high volatility of wafer foundry product prices, significant economic cycles, and intensive capex requirements. On the other hand, Hon Hai can afford to have a 60% debt ratio because of the stability of Apple's orders.


波克夏負債比53%，

它是一家保險公司，

同時也是控股公司，

在投資上巴菲特很排斥借錢


Berkshire Hathaway maintains a debt ratio of 53%. It is both an insurance and a holding company. Buffett strongly discourages borrowing for investments.


政府對銀行和保險公司投入股市有極其嚴格規定，

因為其負債比高達9成，

若全部投入股票，跌10%就倒閉。

金融業的大部份資產必須買價格穩定的公債、投資等級債等，

即所謂的資本適足率。

美國金融機構可投資股票比例很低，

銀行不超過淨值25%，保險公司為30%，

若負債比90%，銀行投資股市不超過資產之2.5%，保險公司3%。


The government imposes stringent regulations on banks and insurance companies regarding their investments in the stock market, particularly due to their high debt ratios, which can reach up to 90%. If these institutions were to allocate all their funds to stocks, a 10% market downturn could result in bankruptcy. The majority of assets in the financial sector are required to be invested in stable securities such as government bonds and investment-grade bonds, which contribute to what is known as the capital adequacy ratio. In the United States, financial institutions are permitted only a small portion of their investments in stocks; banks may not exceed 25% of their net worth, while insurance companies may not exceed 30%. Moreover, if the debt ratio reaches 90%, banks are restricted to investing no more than 2.5% of their assets in the stock market, whereas insurance companies may invest up to 3%.


股市波動大，

我們又喜歡押身家，

公司本身也有負債，常達6成以上，

若再借錢投資等於雙重槓桿，

很容易血本無歸。


Stock market volatility is high, and we often tend to go all-in. Companies themselves frequently carry debt, with levels often exceeding 60%. Borrowing more money to invest implies utilizing double leverage, which can easily result in the loss of all our capital.


大家看到我們投資績效卓越穩定，

那是只看到結果，忘了過程。

2020年股災最慘時大盤跌4成，

我們的持股也跌4成。

過程中的煎熬是最難過的，

借錢投資的人賠掉8成，是熬不過去的。


When observing our outstanding and steady investment performance, people often overlook the process and focus solely on the outcomes. Amidst the depths of the 2020 stock market crash, when the broader market plummeted by 40%, our holdings mirrored this decline. Enduring that period was undoubtedly the toughest challenge. For those who leveraged their investments with borrowed funds, an 80% loss meant they couldn't weather the storm.


做投資永遠要想一件事情：

若今天碰到股災，能否熬得過去？


我就可以！

我現在淨值接近7千萬元台幣，

若下一小時發生股災賠掉4成，

仍有4,200萬元，日子還過得下去


When investing, there's always one key consideration:

Could I withstand a stock market crash today?


I certainly can! My current net worth is close to NT$70 million. If a crash occurs within the next hour and I lose 40%, I'd still have NT$42 million left, which is sufficient to sustain my lifestyle.



雜工發表於 2021-8-7 00:53 


我來舉我個人真實慘痛的失敗經歷分享。

在還沒回到巴班，2018年之前，我的房貸，前2年只付利息，第3年開始付本息，我卻用理財型房貸，以貸養貸。而股票多用融資，大都賠錢收場，也大概打了3～4年「全職的」股期當沖，最後是賠光錢，賠到沒錢生活和繳房貸。


Let me share a personal and painful experience of failure. Before attending Buffett's class in 2018, I had taken out a mortgage with interest-only payments for the first two years, and began repaying both principal and interest in the third year. However, I also used an investment mortgage to support loans and investments. I traded stocks through margin loans and suffered losses in most of my trades. After three to four years of trading stocks and futures full-time, I lost all my money. I even lost the money I needed to live on and pay my mortgage.


當時房地產是漲價的，想增貸或轉貸卻都四處碰壁，因為提不出還款能力證明，戶頭也無存款證明，「專職投資人」這頭銜好聽，沒有半家公民營銀行、農會或信用合作社願意讓我增貸或轉貸，連類似於裕融這種民間貸款的轉貸也都不願意，剩下地下錢莊高利貸是我絕不走的一條路。


The increase in property value made me consider increasing my loan or refinancing, but I was denied due to lack of proof of repayment ability and deposit records. Despite the title of being a "full-time investor," private banks, rural cooperatives, and credit unions were reluctant to extend my loan or offer me on-lending opportunities. Even private lending services like Yulong Finance declined my application. I refuse to resort to underground loan sharks as that is not a viable option for me.


找了銀行商量，最後因擔心房子被法拍，只能忍痛低價快速出售，2018年尾處理掉房子和負債，幸好還有一點點剩餘，自知不能再這樣下去，於是在2019年1月打電話給老師，在當頭棒喝後才覺醒回頭。這部分，我在個人的持股分享那篇，或多或少有敘述過。


After consulting with the bank, I was forced to sell my house at a lower price because I was worried about foreclosure. I finally settled the house and debts by the end of 2018, but I realized I couldn't continue down this path. In January 2019, I reached out to Michael for help, and he gave me a stern wake-up call. This is the part I shared in the article, and I talked about it in more detail.


還款期限已屆，沒錢可還，銀行當然催收啊，繼續還不出錢就被法拍賤價拍賣掉不動產啊。持股套牢賠錢，想用當沖力挽狂瀾，卻又賠更多，惡性循環下去，到某一天逼到了也不得不處理。身邊沒錢，連三餐都出問題，借錢借到親友避之唯恐不及，這時該如何處置？只剩賣掉房子和動產，看能解決多少算多少啊！


When the repayment period has expired and there is no money to repay, the bank will send a collection notice. If you still cannot repay the debt, the bank may foreclose the mortgage at a lower price.

After losing money in stocks, I tried to recover it through day trading, but I only incurred more losses. This vicious circle continued, and eventually, I was forced to confront my financial problems. I had no money and struggled to even put food on the table.

I attempted to borrow money from friends and family, but they all avoided me. What could I do at this point? I had to sell my house, properties, and all of my valuables to make ends meet.


我說過，同學們不會像我這般不幸，所以不會碰到這些真實經慘痛經歷。

8年後，2019年1月回到巴班。

2019.12.31 美股持股獲利約+11％

2020.03.22 新冠病毒最慘時帳面虧損約-40％（慘啊！）

2021.05.10 帳面績效約+32％


殷鑑不遠，戒慎恐懼！

感恩Mike桑把我拉回來啊！

慚愧！慚愧！


As I mentioned earlier, my classmates won't experience the same misery as I did, so they won't have to go through my painful experiences. After an 8-year hiatus, I returned to Buffett Class in January 2019. By the end of 2019, I had made a profit of about 11% on U.S. stocks. However, during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic on March 22, 2020, I lost 40% of my investments, which was extremely painful. On May 10, 2021, I gained 32%. 


I have learned to always be cautious and remember the lessons I have learned. Thank you, Mr. Mike, for guiding me back on track. I will keep your advice in mind always.



年輕人常問我要怎樣才有一桶金？

我說「我才收你6,000元，要教你巴菲特，

連第一桶金也要找我？」

在證券業近30年看比較多的是一開始有一座金山，

後來變成一桶金。

若有 1 億元1,300元買宏達電，現在就剩一桶金了。


Young people often ask me how they can attain a pot of gold. I respond by saying, "I only charge you NT$6,000 to teach you about Buffett. Do you really expect me to be responsible for your first pot of gold as well?" Having worked in the securities industry for nearly 30 years, I've seen more cases where people start with a gold mountain, which eventually turns into a pot of gold. For example, if you invested in HTC at NT$1,300 and now only have a fraction of that amount left, it's still a substantial sum.


同學問，錢要如何變大？

錢要變大不是靠融資，

而是方法要對。對個2次，錢自然就變大了。


Students asked me how he could make more money ? I replied, "It's not about financing, but rather using the right methods. If you make the right investment twice, your money will naturally grow and increase in size."



凱元2008年來找我時有多少錢？100萬元而已。

他8,000多點時打電話來報名上課，

他存了100萬元全部買中鋼，

以為一路抱到底就會成為巴菲特。

我用慈祥的口吻回「大誌不是憨人所想那麼簡單。」

還警告他，接下來股市將跌破7,200，

建議他先把中鋼賣掉。

他真的把中鋼賣掉，

若沒賣現在就沒人知道誰叫凱元了。

他拖一陣子5,000點時才來上課，

上完課就曉得那是低點，進來買滿了股票，

一路抱到9,800減碼賺了2倍，這樣不就300萬元了。


When Kaiyuen came to me in 2008, he only had NT$1 million. He called to sign up for a course when the market was at over 8,000 points. He had saved his NT$1 million and invested it all in China Steel, believing that he would become the next Buffett by holding onto it until the end. I kindly reminded him that investing in the stock market is not as simple as he thought and warned him that the market would fall below 7,200 soon. I suggested that he sell his shares in China Steel, and he followed my advice. If he had not sold, no one would know who Kaiyuen is now.


He waited a while and came to my class when the market was at 5,000 points. After the class, he realized that it was a low point, and he bought a lot of stocks. He held onto them until the market reached 9,800 points and then sold some, making a profit that doubled his initial investment. In this way, he had NT$3 million.



第二次即2012年初7,000點凱元懂得進場，

我們幾支漲倍股都有跟到，

和泰車、美利達、茂順、豐泰，

我猜測他至少賺了 1 倍，這樣不就600萬元，

所以他才跟我說「看到1,000萬元的車尾燈！」


The second time around, in early 2012, Kaiyuen knew it was time to buy at 7,000 points. He followed my stock recommendations that doubled in value, such as Hotai Motor, Merida, Nak Sealing Technologies (9942.TW), and Feng Tay (9910.TW). I assume he made at least twice the amount he had, so he ended up with NT$6 million. That's why he told me he saw the tail lights of the NT$10 million car!


凱元就是從100變600，

對個2次而已，2個景氣循環。

所以不用急，只要方法對了，錢自然會變大。


Kaiyuen's wealth increased from 1 million to 600 million in just two business cycles, thanks to the right method. Therefore, there is no need to worry; if the method is right, money will naturally increase.





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