8899年8月1日 星期六

巴菲特班講稿與盈再表免費下載



我的學生雷大(魏睿宏)在文章裡剽竊了我的選股原則還跑去告我違反投信投顧法,所以我決定把巴菲特班全面公開,免費讓大家閱讀講稿及下載盈再表,無需註冊,歡迎到處散發。
巴菲特班不再開課,只在討論區公開討論。


(講稿為上課逐字稿,讀講稿等同上課,
可不必再看上面二本拙著,因講稿內容更完整。
買書請逕洽網路書店,本人不賣書)

(若討論區進不去,應是網站在維修,跟本人無關,請稍待幾天。
只要這世上還有窮人巴班討論區就不會關閉。)



講稿和盈再表公開後 (點我)

雷的方法跟巴菲特班很像 (點我)

宥聰同學說:「你將成為所有投資人的老師!」

id4eric2同學:「這裡是網路財神廟,我常來參拜!」





感謝上天指派我來教大家巴菲特投資理論,這輩子似乎為此而來,大學時特別喜歡寫程式,外資研究部主管的歷練,連盈再率也是2003年開課前3個月才想到。現在老天爺又指引我公開巴菲特班,影響力將比收學費更無遠弗屆,而且流傳久遠。

我希望巴菲特方法能成為每個人的必修課,盈再表永遠流傳,若還在收學費勢必不可能,收6,000元才能上教堂基督教無以成其大。所以原本即規劃全面開放,將巴班改造成投資界的慈濟,擴大推廣正確的投資觀念。歡迎諸位大德都來信巴菲特教,帶著家人一起按盈再表,傳承下去就能世世代代永保富貴。 

洪瑞泰是把巴菲特理論講清楚的第一人,艱澀的投資理論在他巧妙的比喻下竟饒富趣味。台股開始流行選股看ROE、配得出現金、好學生特質皆啟蒙於他2004年出版的「巴菲特選股魔法書」。


他發明的盈再表是最簡單方便的投資工具,個股好壞一目瞭然,地雷股無所遁形,輕鬆做遍台、美、港、中、全球49國股票。

洪瑞泰更是唯一敢把股票帳戶完整長期公開的人,以身作則而且言行合一。他的績效驚人,二本巨著「巴菲特選股魔法書」和「巴菲特選股神功」後的入圍名單中碳、大統益、台積電、和泰車、巨大、裕融、豐泰、茂順,檔檔漲幅數倍,遠遠打敗大盤。美股 UNHCSXGDMMMRHIDGXJPM也翻了幾翻。

2003年開班以來,洪瑞泰教出一堆傑出校友賺了大錢,見諸於理財雜誌。許多同學的一生因而改變,移民澳洲,財務自由,連鐵工廠銑床技師也轟轟烈烈在投資全世界。

討論區是本班一大瑰寶,巴菲特班從投資台股到征戰全世界,全是同學群策群力,樂於分享的結果。學投資除了上課聽講之外,平常實際操作的過程中必有很多疑惑產生,跟同好討論是很重要的方法。本班同學高手如雲,共同研究,進步一日千里。

來投資全世界吧!到世界各地買最好的公司。只要開個美股帳戶就可以買到全世界股票,世界最好的公司都到美國發行ADR,台積電即有ADR

投資美股不用懂英文,只要會看盈再表就好。美國公司我們還比較熟悉,可口可樂都喝過吧,可是中碳喝過嗎?一定沒有!

投資美股將眼界大開,談論的均為世界級公司。當賓士汽車的股東比較好呢還是裕隆汽車?

投資美股還可以規避匯率風險。這幾年貨幣貶值很可怕,俄國盧布、巴西里耳,甚至英鎊都貶值5成以上,一輩子努力的成果一夕之間少掉一半,有必要把匯率風險避掉。

若覺得前途茫茫,投資美股是一條最立即可行的出路。在各國股市都能賺到錢就不會被困在一隅,從此自由自在。

討論區公開給大眾瀏覽,發言僅限本班同學。 

[洽詢專線] 0918-519-606,mikeon88@gmail.com

[班規] 發言涉及人身攻擊情節重大者,將直接開除,中止其在本班一切權利。討論區如同教室需要維持秩序,否則將劣幣驅逐良幣。禁止語言霸凌,凡事公開透明,不吝褒揚感謝同學貢獻,本討論區才得以形成同學樂於分享的風氣。

感謝青含國、鄭仁壽、范世琦三位律師,尤其青含國律師專業且富正義感,推薦給大家。

2024年2月25日 星期日

2023年報 永恆持股

mikeon88 2024-2-25 13:01


巴菲特明白宣示的永恆持股:

KOAXPOXY、五大商社


我在此駐足良久,想了又想,

原來巴菲特認為最好的公司長這樣子。

這些股票不是華爾街的熱門股,

報章雜誌上不常看到他們的消息,

只有在辦公室裡孤獨研究才能看出他們的好。

幸運地我們不用皓首窮經,

只要按盈再表也看得出來。



mikeon88 2024-2-25 14:04


一個90多歲的老人還在尋找可以抱40-50年的股票,

而非具爆發力馬上賺的飇股。

令人陷入沈思。



Pinkdavid 2024-2-24 21:46


巴菲特2023致股東信

https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-24/doc-inakeake6649518.shtml

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2023ar/2023ar.pdf


This year, I would like to describe two other investments that we expect to maintain indefinitely. Like Coke and AMEX, these commitments are not huge relative to our resources. They are worthwhile, however, and we were able to increase both positions during 2023.


At yearend, Berkshire owned 27.8% of Occidental Petroleum’s common shares and also owned warrants that, for more than five years, give us the option to materially increase our ownership at a fixed price. Though we very much like our ownership, as well as the option, Berkshire has no interest in purchasing or managing Occidental. We particularly like its vast oil and gas holdings in the United States, as well as its leadership in carbon-capture initiatives, though the economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven. Both of these activities are very much in our country’s interest.


Not so long ago, the U.S. was woefully dependent on foreign oil, and carbon capture had no meaningful constituency. Indeed, in 1975, U.S. production was eight million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (“BOEPD”), a level far short of the country’s needs. From the favorable energy position that facilitated the U.S. mobilization in World War II, the country had retreated to become heavily dependent on foreign – potentially unstable – suppliers. Further declines in oil production were predicted along with future increases in usage.


For a long time, the pessimism appeared to be correct, with production falling to five million BOEPD by 2007. Meanwhile, the U.S. government created a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (“SPR”) in 1975 to alleviate – though not come close to eliminating – this erosion of American self-sufficiency.

And then – Hallelujah! – shale economics became feasible in 2011, and our energy dependency ended. Now, U.S. production is more than 13 million BOEPD, and OPEC no longer has the upper hand. Occidental itself has annual U.S. oil production that each year comes close to matching the entire inventory of the SPR. Our country would be very – very – nervous today if domestic production had remained at five million BOEPD, and it found itself hugely dependent on non-U.S. sources. At that level, the SPR would have been emptied within months if foreign oil became unavailable.

Under Vicki Hollub’s leadership, Occidental is doing the right things for both its country and its owners. No one knows what oil prices will do over the next month, year, or decade. But Vicki does know how to separate oil from rock, and that’s an uncommon talent, valuable to her shareholders and to her country.


……


Additionally, Berkshire continues to hold its passive and long-term interest in five very large Japanese companies, each of which operates in a highly-diversified manner somewhat similar to the way Berkshire itself is run. We increased our holdings in all five last year after Greg Abel and I made a trip to Tokyo to talk with their managements.

Berkshire now owns about 9% of each of the five. (A minor point: Japanese companies calculate outstanding shares in a manner different from the practice in the U.S.) Berkshire has also pledged to each company that it will not purchase shares that will take our holdings beyond 9.9%. Our cost for the five totals ¥1.6 trillion, and the yearend market value of the five was ¥2.9 trillion. However, the yen has weakened in recent years and our yearend unrealized gain in dollars was 61% or $8 billion.

Neither Greg nor I believe we can forecast market prices of major currencies. We also don’t believe we can hire anyone with this ability. Therefore, Berkshire has financed most of its Japanese position with the proceeds from ¥1.3 trillion of bonds. This debt has been very well-received in Japan, and I believe Berkshire has more yen-denominated debt outstanding than any other American company. The weakened yen has produced a yearend gain for Berkshire of $1.9 billion, a sum that, pursuant to GAAP rules, has periodically been recognized in income over the 2020-23 period.

In certain important ways, all five companies – Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo – follow shareholder-friendly policies that are much superior to those customarily practiced in the U.S. Since we began our Japanese purchases, each of the five has reduced the number of its outstanding shares at attractive prices.

10

Meanwhile, the managements of all five companies have been far less aggressive about their own compensation than is typical in the United States. Note as well that each of the five is applying only about 1⁄3 of its earnings to dividends. The large sums the five retain are used both to build their many businesses and, to a lesser degree, to repurchase shares. Like Berkshire, the five companies are reluctant to issue shares.

An additional benefit for Berkshire is the possibility that our investment may lead to opportunities for us to partner around the world with five large, well-managed and well-respected companies. Their interests are far more broad than ours. And, on their side, the Japanese CEOs have the comfort of knowing that Berkshire will always possess huge liquid resources that can be instantly available for such partnerships, whatever their size may be.

Our Japanese purchases began on July 4, 2019. Given Berkshire’s present size, building positions through open-market purchases takes a lot of patience and an extended period of “friendly” prices. The process is like turning a battleship. That is an important disadvantage which we did not face in our early days at Berkshire.

2024年2月8日 星期四

巴菲特講得最清楚的一場演講

老巴把祂的理論講得最清楚的一場演講,

不過要先讀過我的講稿才能體會




mikeon88 周五 9 2 2024 - 12:11

老巴把祂的理論講得最清楚的一場演講,

不過要先讀過我的講稿才能體會



studentHank周五 9 2 2024 - 13:13


真的,如果沒有Mike桑的系統化從頭到尾把

巴菲特投資觀念與財報知識講解一遍,

加上盈再表的便利性,

我恐怕還在股海載浮載沉,

感恩Mike



mikeon88 2024-2-14 9:34


在演講中有同學問到:可口可樂提出預警,

受到1997年亞洲金融風暴影響獲利可能出現衰退,

問巴菲特的看法?

老巴只表示管理階層很誠實,

之後又繼續闡述它的護城河多寬。


受到國外因素獲利出現衰退,

這是我們平常最關心的,

報紙會大肆報導,

研究員將因此調低評等建議賣出,

可是巴菲特絲毫不在意這些外在因素,

只要配得出現金不會變的好公司,

買得夠便宜,

就一路抱到底,

這就是我所講的不要想太多!

這是巴菲特方法跟傳統基本面研究不一樣的地方。



mikeon88 2024-2-15 17:41


從巴菲特的演講中得知,

股神也常常買錯股,而且蠻嚴重的

如美國航空特別股,

以及早年只有1萬美金時

投資加油站踩雷讓祂賠光2千元。


買錯股票之後所有人反省的結論

都是要加強研究。

我同意要加強研究,

可是以一個外資研究主管的經驗,

選錯股的機率無法大幅降低,大概就是三成,

這一點是巴菲特和大家不了解的地方。


七成的勝率若集中買少數幾支績效容易大好大壞,

全對了就大好,

多錯幾支即大壞,

一次大壞就前功盡棄,最終以大壞收場。

這個問題在統計學上是有方法解決的,

即買100支以上就不會出現大好大壞的偏差,

我們巴班的實證結果也是如此


所以單押一檔股票,

很多人抓到一檔飇股就all in

以一個學統計的人來看,

早晚總會碰到大壞的...

因為機率上或者命中注定如此。



Pinkdavid 2024-2-15 22:30


持股分散到100支以上可有效避開大賠的風險,

持股沒有壓力才能長抱下去展現績效。


Mike指出巴菲特集中持股的盲點,

以統計學原理提出改善方法且經巴班實證,

在股票投資上是非常有價值的發現。



mikeon88 2024-2-18 16:32


一般人相信的命運,

以統計學來說就是機率的高低。

每個事件的發生只是機率高低,

一旦採納了哪個事件

機率即確定了,

命運就決定了。


貴了的股票又持續飆漲

當然有可能,只是機率低。

買錯股的機率三成,

又單押貴的股票,

在我看來是極其危險的事,

早晚會以大壞收場,

因為機率上或命運上注定如此。

2024年1月24日 星期三

2024 開高走低

2024-1-15

從嘉信匯回資金 3,965 USD


2024-1-16

ET匯回資金4,236 USD


2024-1-17

收到ET匯款4,233美金

已轉成133,074元台幣

將自美股本金扣除


2024-1-24

至今未收到嘉信匯款,

剛剛寫信詢問


ChatGPT修改:

I hope this message finds you well. On January 14, 2024, I submitted a request for a money wire transfer and subsequently received a confirmation email assuring that the funds would be available by January 23, 2024. Regrettably, as of today, the funds have not been received.

I kindly request your assistance in investigating this matter and would appreciate any guidance you can provide on the necessary steps to resolve the issue. Your prompt attention to this concern is highly valued.

Thank you for your assistance.


2024-1-26 8:39

嘉信回函:

I was able to confirm with our internal partners the wire confirmation via text is being entered incorrectly or not getting completed. When you receive a text message to verify your wire submission, you must enter the accurate code to complete the verification. 


2024-1-26 9:35

重新操作,最後經嘉信APP確認


2024-1-29 14:37

收到嘉信匯款3,958.83美金

已轉成123,575元台幣

將自美股本金扣除


經過三次從美國券商匯款回來的經驗,

感覺還蠻方便的,今天申請明天就到,

每次操作花不了1分鐘。


建議同學平常需要零用錢時可以匯回來,

有進有出,累積信用,

而不要最後才一筆匯回讓券商覺得奇怪。



mikeon88 2024-2-5 22:33


賣出RELX 664@41.54美元

原因貴了


2014-4-22RUK 166@59.8,

9.8年共賺2.08倍,年複利12%