巴菲特班講稿
感謝ChatGPT大神幫忙翻譯
Thanks to ChatGPT for the translation
給初次造訪者：
首先請下載盈再表，
無論聽到多天大的明牌，先按盈再表，OK之後才行
最新盈再表 (點我) The latest version of Michael On's table (click)
For new entrants:
Initially, get Michael On's table. Before taking any action based on stock suggestions, cross-check using this table.
我的選股原則只有3點：
1. 選高ROE、配得出現金，不會變的公司
2. 便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣
3. 買至少100支股票，不必照顧也不要停損
Our stock selection is guided by three principles:
1. We select companies with high return on equity, high dividends payout, and a stable business model.
2. We buy at a cheap price and hold until the stock becomes expensive.
3. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of more than 100 stocks eliminates the need for constant monitoring and loss cutting.
不要猜測大盤趨勢，依GDP按表操課加減碼，
1. 7成股票會在GDP年增率最高點觸頂，最低點落底。
2. 在GDP年增率最高點減碼，但最多賣1/3。
若持股比例60%，可降至40%。
把貴的或股價表現不佳持股賣掉。
Our approach to managing stock holdings avoids market speculation and is based on the GDP rule:
1. Approximately 70% of stocks have their peak and trough in line with the annual GDP growth rate.
2. During periods of high GDP growth, we reduce our investments by selling up to 1/3 of our holdings, for example, reducing our shareholding ratio from 60% to 40%.
Sell off expensive or underperforming stocks.
我的方法可以幫助您的投資穩定趨向於15%年報酬率，
我的示範即是最好證明
只要50年平均20%就能和巴菲特一樣成為世界首富
My method promises a stable 15% annual return rate, and the demonstration provides the best evidence.
By achieving an average annual return of 20% over 50 years, you have the potential to attain a level of wealth comparable to that of Warren Buffett.
每年安穩賺15%就有自信押身家長抱：
1. 敢押身家，本金滾起來才會大
2. 才願意長期一直擺著，不跑來跑去，這樣就有複利效果
本金大 x 複利長 ＝ 有錢人
Achieving a 15% annual return gives you the confidence to invest a significant portion of your wealth for the long term.
1. Be bold in investing the majority of your wealth to maximize your principal.
2. Emphasize generating compound interest by abstaining from speculative trading.
Large principal x long compound interest = billionaire
A large principal combined with sustained compound interest can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time.
請每天來討論區
跟單
Participate in daily discussion forums and follow what we do.
台股若找不到100檔可好很久的公司，請來投資全世界。
把家族財產分散到世界級好公司最安全而且可大可久，比房地產有保障。
If you cannot find 100 long-term companies in Taiwan’s stocks, please come to invest globally.
Diversifying your property to world-class companies is the safest and growing, more secure than real estate.
把巴菲特神功傳承下去，
後代子孫將不愁吃穿，不用擔心工作和學業成績，
可以全力發展自己的興趣，無憂無慮過一輩子。
By carrying on Warren Buffett's remarkable investment skills, your future generations will be liberated from concerns about their job or academic performance. This will empower them to wholeheartedly pursue their interests and embrace a lifetime of peace and contentment.
學佛最大的障礙是拿不掉我執，
不能百分之百按著佛祖教導的正法修行。
誤以為自己修正的方法較快，摻雜的邪門歪道更好。
學習態度輕忽，初一十五才來廟裡燒香。
上述行為都讓您與佛無緣，無法成為有錢人。
請每天來巴班討論區，跟單。
心有罫礙多唸講稿！
The largest hindrance in studying Buddhism is dispelling entrenched misconceptions and ensuring strict adherence to the teachings of Buddha. Some individuals mistakenly believe that their modified approach is quicker or that blending different ideologies is more effective. They have a careless attitude towards learning and only visit the temple sporadically. These actions will prevent one from reaching enlightenment and will not lead to wealth.
Engage in daily forum discussions and follow our lead to gain insights and strategies. If you encounter obstacles, refer back to the written material frequently for guidance.
上課錄音檔～感謝雜工桑提供
Lecture Recordings ~ Thanks to Mr. Handyman for providing
Lecture on Youtube ~ Thanks to Mr. Wenhong Jiang for providing
歡迎來上巴菲特班，本班創立於2003年，
為台灣歷史最悠久，學生人數最多的投資課。
Welcome to the Buffett Lecture Series! Founded by Michael On in 2003, it is the premier and highly acclaimed investment course in Taiwan, with a long-standing reputation.
2003年開班在想該取什麼名字才會吸引人來上課？
當時剛好看到eBay在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
拍得25萬美金，折合台幣800多萬，
我就把這堂課取名叫「一堂價值800萬元的投資課」，
以為是響叮噹的名字，不料效果不彰。
In 2003, while starting the Buffett Lecture Series, I was looking for a name that would appeal to the audience. I stumbled upon an eBay auction for a lunch with Warren Buffett that sold for $250,000, equivalent to over NT$8 million. This inspired me to name the series "An Investment Course Worth NT$8 Million." Although I believed the name was striking, its effectiveness was still to be seen.
eBay每年都在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
2012年跟2016年同樣創了新高，
金額都是3,456,789美金，折合台幣約1億多元，
所以現在是一堂價值 1 億多元的投資課，現在來上課賺更多！
Every year, eBay holds an auction for a "Lunch with Warren Buffett," which set new records in 2012 and 2016 with winning bids of $3,456,789, equivalent to roughly NT$100 million.
This has elevated the perceived value of the course to over NT$100 million, making it an opportune time to enroll and receive even greater returns on your investment.
令人遺憾的是本班的學費在2003年是5,000元，
好不容易2008年因為石油上漲跟著起鬨漲到6,000元，
本以為學費應該跟老巴的權利金一起上漲，卻是很困難。
Since its inception in 2003, the tuition for this course was established at NT$5,000. In 2008, the tuition was increased to NT$6,000 due to the rise in oil prices.
I had aspired for the course tuition to grow in line with the winning bid amount of the annual "Lunch with Warren Buffett" auction, but increasing the fee proved to be a difficult task.
上完課之後同學才跟我反映，本班的學費其實最便宜，
上別人的課動輒都是上萬元以上，甚至有一堂24萬元課。
我以為本班學費只是個合理價，中間的價格，
說便宜也沒便宜到哪裡去，因為投資是很簡單的一門課，
若動輒都要上萬塊以上的話，
那以前在學校所學更難的課物理化學或微積分不就要上百萬元嗎？
如果上過比我更貴的課，表示被敲了竹槓！
After the classes, students would approach me and tell me that my class fees were actually the cheapest among all the other investment courses. Other courses often cost more than ten thousand dollars, with some even costing twenty-four thousand dollars per class. I thought the fees for my class were just a reasonable price, in the middle range. When people say "cheap," it's not really that cheap. Because investment is a simple subject, if people have to pay more than ten thousand dollars, then wouldn't subjects like physics, chemistry, or calculus, which are more difficult, cost millions of dollars? If someone has taken a course that's more expensive than mine, they were ripped off!
同學問為何還要來上這堂課？
上課之前有人已先看過我的書，為何還要來上這堂課？
因為書上有些東西可能看得不是很懂，
投資時也有許多問題產生，
所以就得來上這堂課。
Why do we still attend this class even though we've read the book beforehand?" asked some classmates. "Some things in the book may not be fully understood and there are also many questions that come up during the investment process, so that's why we need to attend this class.
學投資跟學開車一樣，
光看書等於看一本教練手冊，
單看教練手冊不能學會開車，
接下來就得到教練場聽教練講解。
這堂課就像教練場一樣，
會把所有關於投資的道理跟大家講清楚，
同學只要把上課內容搞清楚就足以應付股市各種狀況。
在上課過程中歡迎隨時舉手發問！
Investing is similar to learning how to drive.
Reading a book on investing is like reading a driving manual; just as reading a manual alone won't make you a proficient driver, reading a book on investing won't make you an expert.
This class acts as a driving lesson, with the instructor clearly explaining all the principles of investing.
With a thorough understanding of the class material, you will be prepared to navigate various situations in the stock market.
Feel free to ask questions at any time during the class!
上完課之後就要開車上路，路上的狀況更複雜，
我們希望仍然跟同學保持聯絡。
在投資上有任何問題歡迎隨時打電話給我，
或者到討論區來一起討論。
這堂課永久免費保固，歡迎再來回鍋，
只要事先寫伊媚兒報名即可。
After finishing class, we'll hit the road, which is becoming increasingly complex. Nevertheless, we hope to stay connected with our classmates. If you have any questions regarding investments, don't hesitate to give me a call, or join us in the discussion forum for a group discussion. This course comes with a permanent, free guarantee, and you're welcome to revisit as long as you send an email to register in advance.
回鍋是免費的，所謂免費指免學費。
舊生中午要吃便當的話每人2天400元，
不然三不五時來吃便當我就倒閉了。
The term "free" only applies to tuition fees and not to lunch. Former students who want to order lunch must pay for it, at a cost of approximately NT$200 per day. Otherwise, if they only come back for the free lunch, I may run into financial difficulties.
舊生要一本新的講義，70元，
超過一年以上來回鍋才需要新的講義。
The lecture materials are periodically updated, and a new copy can be purchased for NT$70. It is recommended to purchase updated materials if your current edition is at least one year old.
現在改為線上教學之後回鍋更方便了，
自己到討論區看講稿，隨時隨地複習。
With the course now being offered through online learning, reviewing and discussing the material has become more convenient. You can access the discussion forum to read the lecture text and review it anytime and anywhere.
以往每年9月或10月份本班還會召開同學會，
邀請投資有成的同學來分享心得。
同學會場面相當盛大，北中南合計超過1千500人。
台北場在內湖美麗華飯店，有摩天輪大樓的那家飯店，
參加同學須分擔場地費用每人300元。
台中在救國團，每人200元，
高雄是慧雯同學提供的場地，免費。
In the past, the class would organize yearly reunion parties during September or October, inviting accomplished alumni to share their experiences. These events were hosted in various regions of Taiwan, including the north, central, and south, and were attended by over 15,000 alumni annually. The Taipei party was held at the Miramar Hotel in Neihu District, which boasts a Ferris wheel, and attendees were asked to contribute a fee of NT$300 per person to cover the venue costs. The Taichung gathering took place in a classroom at the China Youth Corps, while the Kaohsiung reunion was held in a hall generously provided by Ms. Hueiwen.
同學會2017年之後不再舉辦，
大家到討論區見面，等於天天在開同學會。
The reunion party has not been held since 2017, but you can meet in the discussion forum, which is equivalent to having a reunion party every day.
我出過兩本書，第一本書是「巴菲特選股魔法書」2004年出版，
第二本書「巴菲特選股神功」2008年出版，這是一本漫畫書。
這兩本是不一樣的書，內容70%不同。
跟我買書最便宜，因為作者跟出版社買書可以打6折，
用成本價賣給各位。
以後買書請逕洽書局或出版社購買。
I have written two books, the first is "Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection" published in 2004, and the second book, "Warren Buffett's Skills of Stock Selection" was published in 2008. This is a comic book.
These two books are different, with 70% different content.
Buying a book from me is the cheapest, because the author can get a 40% discount from the publisher. I am providing the books to you at cost price.From now on, please purchase books directly from bookstores or publishers.
也就是上這堂課我這一輩子只會賺同學一次學費，
以後跟我買書、參加同學會、來回鍋，都賺不到一毛錢！
This means that I will only earn tuition from you once. I won't make any money from selling books, hosting reunion gatherings, or having you return to class.
只有這樣才可能教大家學會投資，
看了書之後來上課，平常一起討論，有需要來回鍋。
學投資是一段「練」的過程，
體會出股價的確是如我所講的道理在走，才會照著做，
通常需要經過2次的多空循環才能體會。
第一次碰到多頭天天在漲，以為賺錢真簡單，
第一次碰到空頭天天下跌，又覺得生不如死，
等第二次碰到才發現原來多頭就是這麼一回事，空頭是如此這般。
The only way to teach someone how to invest is by combining reading books, taking courses, participating in forums, and attending class when necessary. Investing is a process of practice that requires an understanding of the principles that govern the stock market and prices. This usually takes two bull and bear market cycles to fully comprehend. During the first encounter with a bull market, rising prices every day can make it seem easy to make money. But during the first encounter with a bear market, when prices are falling every day, it can feel like life is worse than death. It's only after the second encounter that one realizes that both bull and bear markets are just part of the process.
股市多空跟總體經濟循環是一致的，
景氣循環大概3到5年一個循環，一個循環指一上一下。
The bull market and bear market are synchronized with the economic cycle, which lasts approximately 3 to 5 years and encompasses one cycle of fluctuation, including a rise and fall.
經過2次循環亦即至少5年的時間才能夠體會，
過程中一群志同道合的人共同研究比較容易進入狀況。
It takes at least 2 cycles, or 5 years, for one to fully understand the stock market. In this process, it's easier for a group of people with shared beliefs to learn and understand the market together.
這幾年觀察同學做投資差異很大，本班有一位傑出校友凱元，
他是離投資很遠的人，在鐵工廠上班，一開始錢不多。
2008年5,000多點時來上課，知道那是低點就買滿股票，
重點是他懂得一路抱，抱到高點9,800減碼，
算一算了賺了2倍。
第二次在2012年初自己明白那是低點了，
他選的股票相當不錯，跟我推薦美利達、豐泰的表現都十分亮眼。
In recent years, I have observed significant differences in my students' investment behavior. One standout student is Kaiyuen, who started as a beginner investor. He previously worked in a steel factory and had limited funds. In 2008, he took my course when the stock market index was at 5,000 points, and he saw it as a low point to invest. He held onto his stocks for a long time, and when the index reached its peak at 9,800 points, he reduced his position, thereby doubling his investment. In early 2012, he once again recognized a low point and invested in stocks such as Merida Bikes (9914.TW) and Feng Tay (9910.TW), which turned out to perform well.
凱元2008年來找我時錢不多，
曾跟我說「一個人資產有 1 千萬元就是有錢人，
對他而言是遙不可及的夢。」
最近他說已經離1千萬不遠了，
用現代術語來講，以前千萬元是GPS上的小黑點，
現在則看到車尾燈。
When Kaiyuen came to see me in 2008, he didn't have much money. He told me, For someone with a net worth of ten million dollars, they are considered wealthy, a far-off aspiration for him. However, he recently informed me that he is nearing the ten million mark. To put it in contemporary terms, ten million dollars was once a speck on the GPS map, but now it is within reach, visible like a set of taillights.
有人問我如何衡量一個人是否學會巴菲特神功？
主要看兩點：若買的股票跟我的入圍名單長得很像，
又懂得在股價便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣。
做到這兩點就算學會巴菲特神功。
When asked how to determine if someone has learned the magic of Buffett, I use two criteria: first, whether the stocks they have acquired align with my personal watch list, and second, if they consistently follow the strategy of buying stocks at a cheap price and selling when the price is expensive. Adhering to these methods is a clear indication of a successful application of Buffett's teachings.
另外一位同學，凱元的同事，2011年9,000多點來上課，
我警告高點到了應當減碼，
他卻不聽仍去買了遊戲股和太陽能股，
因此賠了錢就對投資喪失信心。
在真的低點來臨，2012年初7,000點，反而不敢買股票。
A colleague of Kaiyuen, another student, came to class at more than 9,000 points in 2011. I advised him that the market was approaching its peak and it was time to sell. However, he ignored my warning and invested in video game and solar energy stocks instead. Unfortunately, this resulted in financial loss and eroded his confidence in investing. When the market declined to 7,000 points in 2012, he became too apprehensive to invest in stocks again.
凱元非常熱心一直拉著同事進場，還挑了5檔股票給他參考，
可是同事就是不敢買。
當時凱元連續打了5通電話問我？
我跟他說「GDP低點到了應該進場買股票，」同事不敢買。
我說「把股價圖攤開給他看，當時很多股票未漲，」還是不買。
我說「叫他買個3分之一，反正持股前3分之一亂買亂賣
都沒關係，」同事還是不敢。
最後只好說「把他的頭壓著，叫他一定要買、一定要買」，
後來同事總算買了，可是抱不到三天就賣掉了。
凱元問要如何才能讓他的同事敢買股票而且又願意抱著久？
我雙手一攤「不要理他了，很顯然他跟佛無緣，跟巴菲特無緣！」
Kaiyuen was eager to encourage his colleague to invest in stocks and even provided five specific stock tips, but his colleague was too scared to make the investment. Kaiyuen sought my advice several times. I advised that during a period of low GDP, it was a good time to invest in stocks, but the colleague was still wary. I recommended showing the colleague a stock price chart and explaining that many stocks hadn't risen yet, but the colleague remained hesitant. I encouraged the colleague to invest a third of their funds, emphasizing that the outcome of the first third doesn't matter, but the colleague was still uninterested. In the end, I told Kaiyuen to "Press his head to the desk and tell him to buy, to buy." and the colleague eventually invested, but sold the stocks after just three days. Kaiyuen asked me for advice on how to help his colleague overcome their fear and hold the stocks for a longer period. I shrugged my hands in frustration and said, "Forget about it, it's clear that the colleague has missed his chance with Buddha and missed the opportunity to learn from Mr. Buffett."
為何他的同事學巴菲特會失敗？
原因在上完課之後的第一次沒跟著照做，
9,000點我喊減碼，他未照做，未體會出股價的道理。
建議同學上課後的第一次不管願不願意
至少撥一半資金跟我們做做看。
現在來到1萬多點，更貴了，請持股勿超過一半，
跟著做一次，體會出股價道理，就容易學會神功。
Why did his colleague fail to learn the Buffett method? The reason is that he didn't follow my instructions after the class. I called to sell at 9,000, but he didn't, thus he was unable to fully comprehend the stock price concepts. My suggestion is that after the class, one should allocate at least half of their available funds towards investing with me, regardless of their personal preferences. The index currently stands at around 10,000 points, making the stock even more costly. It's not advisable to hold more than half of one's funds in stock. By following my lead just once, they will easily understand the principles of stock pricing.
本堂課會從最基本開始教，不用擔心完全沒概念，
上課過程有聽不懂的地方就舉手，
我即會停下來讓同學聽到懂為止。
只要給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓同學的投資思想跟行為跟巴菲特一樣。
即便是完全一竅不通的人也會玩全世界的股票，
只要給我2天的時間。
This course starts from the basics, so don't be concerned if you are a newcomer. If you have any questions during class, simply raise your hand and I will clarify until you fully understand. In just two days, I will transform you into a Buffett by imparting Mr. Buffett's investment strategies and approaches. Even individuals with no prior knowledge can learn to invest globally. Just give me two days.
