GDP年增率為何跟指數有關？
GDP是國內生產毛額，什麼是毛額？
扣掉成本之前的東西叫毛額，扣掉之後為毛利，
營收減成本為毛利。
GDP就是營收！
台灣的GDP就是台灣的營收。
How is the annual GDP growth rate related to the index? GDP refers to gross domestic product, but what does "gross" mean? "Gross" refers to the amount before deductions of cost, while "gross profit" refers to the amount after deductions. In other words, gross profit is equal to sales minus costs. Therefore, GDP can be seen as equivalent to sales. For instance, Taiwan's GDP is essentially Taiwan's sales.
GDP年增率跟指數有關，意即營收年增率和股價有關，
這是大家早就知道的觀念，
買個股投資人都在追蹤營收，因為營收大幅成長股價會漲，
這是必然的定律，不會因每個人都知道而不靈。
有人買股票都在追蹤營收，卻轉過頭來說他不相信GDP理論，
實在很奇怪，個股就相信，整個加起來卻不相信。
The annual growth rate of GDP is closely tied to the index, which indicates that the annual growth rate of sales is correlated with stock prices. This idea is widely accepted among investors, who monitor sales as a key indicator for potential stock price increases. This concept is considered an absolute law as it is widely recognized. However, there are some students who track sales but do not believe in the GDP Theorem. They may have faith in a particular stock, but not in the concept as a whole.
或者這樣問大家：股價跟景氣有關，對不對？
眾人皆點頭。
再問：什麼是景氣？
不就是GDP嗎！
若問這幾年景氣如何？你會怎麼答？
夏天溫度38度，還是GDP年增率不到2%！
Let's pose a question to everyone: are stock prices influenced by business cycles? Most people would agree with this statement. Next, let's ask, what exactly is a business cycle? Is it not synonymous with GDP? If we consider the current state of the economy over the past few years, how would we respond? Would we say that the economy is experiencing a summer temperature of 38 degrees, or would we say that the annual GDP growth rate is less than 2%?
GDP年增率A國從10%降到8%，
B國由-10%變-8%，
請問哪一國的股市會漲？
B
再問：哪一國的經濟好？
A
經濟不好的國家股市反而漲，為什麼？
因為不會更壞股價就漲，B國股市會漲因經濟不再更壞。
相反的，沒更好股價即作頭，A國股市會跌。
股市不是經濟變好才漲，
而是不會更壞就開始漲。
The annual GDP growth rate of Country A decreased from 10% to 8%, while Country B went from -10% to -8%. Which country's stock market is expected to rise? Country B's stock market is likely to rise.
Now, let's consider which country has a good economy. Country A has a stronger economy than Country B despite its decrease in the annual GDP growth rate.
Moreover, it is common for stock markets in countries with poor economies to rise. This can be explained by the fact that stock prices tend to rise when the economy is not expected to worsen any further. As such, the stock market in Country B will increase because its economy is projected to stop deteriorating. Conversely, if the economy of Country A is not expected to improve any further, its stock market will likely fall.
Therefore, the stock market does not necessarily increase solely because the economy is booming. Rather, it may rise because the economy is projected to maintain its current state.
以上也是一般人誤解GDP是股價落後指標的原因，
當GDP由最低往上走時，如-10%變-8%，股價就開始漲了，
可是 -8%，大家還是覺得景氣很糟，
等到GDP轉成+3%才感覺出景氣好轉，
而股價早已漲一大段了。
The aforementioned also explains why most people mistakenly believe that GDP is a lagging indicator of stock prices. When GDP increases from its lowest point, such as from -10% to -8%, stock prices begin to rise. However, even at -8%, many still believe the economy to be weak. By the time GDP has increased to +3%, which is typically when people begin to feel that the economy is improving, the stock market has already been rising for some time.
底下是上證指數跟中國GDP年增率對照圖，蠻相關的。
上海股市從2007年到2013年走了6年的大空頭，
看這張圖我一直在想可否避掉此段空頭？
當然可以。
2007年上證漲到6,000點時同學曾問我看法？
當時按中股盈再表發現多數股票都太貴，
賣掉即可避掉後來的急跌。
知道中國GDP年增率越來越低，
又可躲過漫長的盤跌。
貴了和GDP理論可以逃過這6年的大空頭。
The following chart is a comparison between the Shanghai Index and China's annual GDP growth rate, which demonstrates a strong correlation. From 2007 to 2013, the Shanghai stock market underwent six years of bearish activity. Upon examining this chart, one might ask whether it is possible to avoid such a market downturn. The answer is yes. In 2007, when the Shanghai Index reached 6,000, some students asked for my opinion. According to On's table, the majority of Chinese stocks were too expensive at that time. By selling at this point, one could have avoided the subsequent market crash. Furthermore, being aware of the declining trend in China's annual GDP growth rate could have helped investors avoid long-term market declines. The warning signals provided by On's table and the GDP Theorem could have aided investors in escaping the six-year bear market.
2015年上海股市飆漲到5,000點，
原以為中股便宜，
因銀行股、石油股和一些國企股相當便宜。
當時kaka同學一直在討論區貼其它個股的盈再表，
一支比一支貴，
我吃驚脫口說出「中股貴了，應當減碼！」
剛好喊在5,000點的高點。
In 2015, the Shanghai stock market surged to 5,000 points, and I believed that Chinese stocks were cheap. This was because bank stocks, oil stocks, and several state-owned enterprise stocks were quite cheap. However, Mr. Kaka had been posting On's tables of other stocks on the discussion forum, and I was taken aback by the prices. Some stocks were more expensive than others, and I exclaimed, "Chinese stocks are costly and should be underweighted!" I made this statement at the peak of 5,000.
兩次都抓到中股的高點，
顯示我們的方法不只對一次，
只要股價貴了盈再表都會忠實呈現。
而且不僅台股適用，放諸四海皆準。
Capturing the peak of the Chinese stock market twice shows that our method is not just a one-time success. Whenever stock prices are expensive, On's table will faithfully present the data, and this method is not only applicable to the Taiwanese stock market, but to all markets worldwide.
GDP理論全世界都成立，
底下是各國GDP年增率和指數圖，它們都相關。
The GDP Theorem is applicable globally, as evidenced by the correlation between the annual GDP growth rates and stock market indices of various countries, as shown in the chart below.
台灣 Taiwan
美國 US
香港 Hong Kong
中國 China
日本 Japan
德國 Germany
英國 UK
美國、日本、新加坡、歐洲等國的GDP成長率
喜歡公布QoQ的數字，QoQ跟指數無關，
要YoY才有關。
一些記者不知這兩者的區別，有時候會誤植，
看國外GDP成長率報導時須核對其數字係YoY或QoQ，
YoY跟指數才有關。
The GDP growth rates of the US, Japan, Singapore, Europe, and other countries are often reported in QoQ figures, which have no correlation with the index. The relevant figure is YoY. Unfortunately, some reporters are unaware of the distinction and make mistakes. When reading reports on foreign GDP growth rates, it is essential to verify whether the numbers are YoY or QoQ. Only YoY figures have a relationship with the index.
全世界的經濟與股市都是以美國為火車頭，
因為美國的GDP最大。
我們每天一大早起床第一件事情在幹嘛呢？
看美股收盤，為何如此重視？
因受美股影響大。
底下是台股指數和道瓊指數圖，兩者密切相關。
有時候會差距3個月，
2008年台股與中股先落底，9月落底，
美股到隔年3月觸底，因次貸危機美國是震央。
基本上台美股同步，有時會落差3個月，誰先誰後不一定。
The world economy and stock market closely follow the United States, which is considered a locomotive due to its large GDP. Checking the closing price of the US stock market is often the first thing people do every morning, as it holds a significant impact. The chart below shows the correlation between the Taiwan Stock Index and Dow Jones Index, although there can sometimes be a three-month delay. In 2008, the Taiwan and Chinese stock markets were the first two to reach the bottom in September, while the US market was hit hard by the subprime mortgage crisis and was late to bottom out in March of the following year. Generally, the Taiwan and US stock markets are synchronized, but sometimes there can be a lag of up to three months.
台股指數與日經指數也相關，
日本經濟失落了20年仍然跟台股同步。
The Taiwan Stock Index and the Nikkei Index are also interconnected, with the Japanese economy having stagnated for the past 20 years but still maintaining pace with Taiwan's stocks.
台股和香港恆生指數，一樣相關。
The Taiwan stock market is closely linked to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index.
台股與上海股市大體上相關。
There is a general correlation between Taiwan stocks and the Shanghai stock market.
投資全世界這麼多國家，我只看台灣GDP，只注意主計處的預估
用它去推估美國的GDP，因為我們的主要出口市場是美國。
以前葛林斯班也搜集台灣電子股每月公告的營收
來當作研判美國景氣的先行指標。
另外聽會看衰自己業績的公司，
如這次大立光就誠實指出手機業者景氣都看得很差，
果然4Q22台灣GDP急轉直下。
我不看其它機構的預估，不相信永遠只看多的公司，不聽投信和分析師預測
When making investments worldwide, I concentrate on Taiwan's GDP and carefully monitor the projections provided by the DGBAS. This enables me to estimate the GDP of the US, which is our primary export destination. In the past, Greenspan also collected monthly revenue announcements from Taiwan's electronics companies to use as a leading indicator for the US economy. Additionally, I focus on companies that are honest about their own performance and would express a pessimistic outlook, like the recent announcement from Largan Precision regarding the weak prospects for the mobile industry, which was followed by a significant decline in Taiwan's GDP in 4Q22. I don't rely on the estimates of other institutions, and I don't solely trust bullish companies, nor do I listen to predictions from fund managers and analysts.
各國GDP去哪裡查？
盈再表上附有該國GDP。
Where can one check the GDP of each country? The country's GDP is listed in On's table.
台灣GDP點進去，先到巴菲特班部落格，
有2個東西：歷史資料跟預估值。
Click on Taiwan's GDP and it will take you to my blog where you can find two things: historical data and estimated values.
查歷史資料點入到主計處網頁，有3欄，
第一欄日期從何時到何時，點、下拉，
第二欄按經濟成長率(%)，
第三欄選原始值，勿點年增率因是空的，原始值才有年增率。
再點選「繼續」，即跑出歷年各季GDP年增率數字。
To check the historical data, click on the webpage of DGBAS, where you will find 3 columns. In the first column, select the time range by clicking and pulling down. The second column displays the economic growth rate (%) while the third column displays the original value. Be sure to select the original value and not the annual growth rate, which is empty. Click "Continue" to access the annual GDP growth figures for each quarter over the years.
台股盈再表底下附上GDP圖，
tradingeconomics.com提供總經資料可以畫圖，
對研究總經有興趣的同學可充分利用。
A GDP chart is attached at the bottom of On's table. Macro-economic data can be obtained from tradingeconomics.com, where students interested in studying macroeconomics can make full use of the resources available.
美國GDP按美股盈再表GDP，跑到國家統計局網站，
第一列Gross domestic product 即GDP年增率，
年限只有3年，按上方Modify鍵即可加長。
The U.S. GDP is attached on the US stocks sheet of On's table. Click on the National Bureau of Statistics website to access it. The first column, "Gross Domestic Product," displays the annual GDP growth rate, which covers a period of only 3 years. To access earlier data, click the "Modify" button located above the column.
查其它國家GDP，到全球盈再表，
A1格輸入國碼，國碼在右邊可查到49國碼，
德國即DE，
輸入之後直接點底下GDP格，
即出現德國GDP年增率圖。
To check the GDP of other countries, navigate to the global sheet of On's table. Enter the country code into cell A1. The 49 country codes are located on the right side of the sheet. For instance, Germany's country code is DE. After entering the country code, click on the GDP button located below. A chart displaying the annual growth rate of German GDP will appear.
2014年下半年俄國盧布大貶，
盧布匯率原本跟台幣差不多，1 美元兌30元盧布。
近年因油價下跌，以原油為出口大宗的俄國經濟受到重創，
盧布狂貶到68。
為支撐盧布，俄國把利率從10.5%一口氣升到17%，
盧布立即反彈到51。
In the latter half of 2014, the Russian ruble experienced a significant depreciation. Initially, the ruble had a similar exchange rate to the Taiwan dollar, with 1 U.S. dollar equivalent to 30 rubles. However, in recent years, the Russian economy, which heavily relies on crude oil exports, suffered a severe blow due to the drop in oil prices. As a result, the ruble depreciated to 68. To stabilize the ruble, Russia increased its interest rates from 10.5% to 17% in a single move. Following this measure, the ruble quickly rebounded to 51.
2015年油價續跌，2016年2月甚至跌到26美元一桶，
俄國盧布貶到新低81元。
In 2015, the price of oil continued to decline and reached a low of $26 per barrel in February 2016. Consequently, the Russian ruble also plummeted to a new low of 81.
俄國盧布、巴西里耳、英鎊近幾年都狂貶逾5成，
讓我心生警惕，更加確信投資美股的重要性，
試想哪天盧布貶值的噩夢在台幣重演，
一夕之間財富蒸發掉6成，很可怕的。
Over the past few years, the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and British pound have all experienced a depreciation of over 50%. This fact has made me more vigilant and reinforced my belief in the importance of investing in US stocks. It's easy to imagine a situation where the nightmare of a currency devaluation repeats itself in Taiwan. If that were to happen overnight, 60% of people's wealth would evaporate, which would be catastrophic.
1997年亞洲金融風暴提供了一個很好學習總經的教材，
一開始東南亞各國因外資撤離而貨幣競貶，
經濟大幅衰退，香港因相鄰也受到打擊。
經濟不佳，貨幣理當貶值，
可是港幣卻因聯繫匯率無法貶值，
香港作為國際金融中心，為求穩定港幣一直與美元掛勾。
The 1997 Asian financial crisis served as a valuable textbook for studying macroeconomics. Initially, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries depreciated due to the withdrawal of foreign capital. This led to a sharp economic decline, which also impacted Hong Kong due to its proximity to the affected countries.
During an economic downturn, currency depreciation is often seen as a natural outcome. However, the Hong Kong dollar was unable to depreciate due to its linked exchange rate. As an international financial center, the Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar for stability.
港幣當貶而不貶，導至利率上升，隔夜拆款利率飆漲到300％，
隔夜拆款利率即銀行間借款利率，
恆生指數由1萬5000多點暴跌到6,000多點。
The Hong Kong dollar should have depreciated but did not, causing interest rates to rise. As a result, the overnight interbank call-loan rate soared to 300%, and the Hang Seng Index fell from 15,000 to over 6,000.
索羅斯看到這個矛盾現象進來套利，
同時空港幣跟指數期貨，
他不是要兩頭賺而是要賺一邊，
因總有一端會成立，港幣貶或股市大跌。
從理論上推演必然成立，這是一個如意算盤。
Soros took advantage of this contradiction by shorting Hong Kong dollar and index futures. He was not trying to profit from both sides, but rather to profit from one side. Eventually, one end of the scenario would prove to be true, either the Hong Kong dollar would depreciate or the stock market would experience a sharp decline. Theoretically speaking, this strategy was bound to succeed, and was seen as a perfect calculation.
想不到香港政府動用1,181億元港幣的外匯存底來護盤，
買進恆生指數30檔成分股，
把指數從6,000多點硬拉到 1 萬5,000點，
導致港幣未貶，股市也沒跌，
索羅斯兩邊都沒賺到倖然離場。
To everyone's surprise, the Hong Kong government utilized HK$118.1 billion from their foreign exchange reserves to protect the market by purchasing 30 Hang Seng Index stocks. This move caused the index to rise from 6,000 to 15,000. As a result, the Hong Kong dollar did not depreciate, and the stock market did not experience a sharp decline. Soros was not able to achieve his goal of profiting from both outcomes and eventually withdrew from the game.
動用外匯存底來護盤是危險的做法，
因為外匯存底不是政府的錢，
它是國人做貿易賺到的錢，以及外國人到本地投資的錢，
它就像到遊樂場去玩換成代幣的錢。
代幣之所以有價值因有等值的錢做兌換，
若把外幣再換成代幣，代幣將失去價值。
Utilizing foreign exchange reserves to protect the market is a dangerous practice, as these reserves do not belong to the government. Instead, they are earned by the people through trade or investments made by foreign entities in the local economy. In a sense, it is like playing a game with tokens at an amusement park. These tokens have value because they are guaranteed by equivalent reserved currencies. If the reserved currencies are exchanged for tokens, the tokens will lose their value.
港府深知此非長久之計，
事情過後趕緊把所買的成分股去設了一個盈富基金，
供市民認購，套回現金。
The Hong Kong government was aware that this was not a sustainable solution. After the crisis, it promptly established a Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK), which included the constituent stocks it had purchased. The fund was made available for public subscription to allow for cash to be put back into the reserve.
上述過程是學習總經很好的教材，
可以了解GDP、匯率、利率、股市、外匯存底的相互關係。
The aforementioned process serves as an excellent example for studying macroeconomics, allowing for a better understanding of the interplay between GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, stock markets, and foreign exchange reserves.
2011年的人民幣的狀況跟1997年港幣剛好相反，
當年中國經濟繁榮，人民幣理當升值，
可是人民幣一直抗拒升值，
中國作為世界工廠，希望生產要素價格儘量便宜。
貨幣應升值而未升，利率被壓低，造成通貨膨脹嚴重。
The exchange rate of the RMB in 2011 was the complete opposite of the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar in 1997. During a period of economic growth, the renminbi should appreciate, yet it has remained resistant to appreciation. As the world's manufacturing hub, China strives to maintain low prices for production factors. Therefore, while the currency should appreciate, it cannot, resulting in depressed interest rates and a surge in inflation.
要控制通膨，簡單之道即讓匯率升值，
當時很多外資打賭人民幣將大幅升值，
可是中共卻用另一種方式因應，全民調薪，
12五計畫讓人民普遍調薪 1 倍，
這樣即感覺不出通膨的痛苦。
在廣東的外商像富士康、台達都被逼調薪，
富士康在調薪之後就把工廠搬到河南去了。
看到中國全面調薪時，投資人應當心裡有數，
人民幣大幅升值的空間不大了。
The simplest way to control inflation is to allow the exchange rate to appreciate. Many foreign investors at the time believed that the Renminbi would appreciate significantly. However, Chinese authorities responded differently by adjusting national salaries as part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, allowing people to double their salaries. This eased the pain of inflation. Foreign employers in Guangdong, such as Foxconn and Delta Electronics, were also forced to adjust their salaries. As a result, Foxconn relocated its factory to Henan after the salary adjustment. Investors should note that with China's overall salary adjustment, there is not much room for a substantial appreciation of the Renminbi.
大家較關心現在總體經濟如何？
當前大事是美國在升息，
美國不僅升一次息而已，而是要利率正常化，
在未來3年內把利率從0%拉到3%正常水準，
因為利率長期處在這麼低的水準有副作用：
1. 熱錢到處流竄將導至資源配置錯誤
2. 令賴利息維生者無法生存，如退休金、銀行、投資業者，
3. 一旦未來又發生金融危機時Fed將無可利用工具。
Everyone is more concerned about the current overall economy.
The current major issue is the US raising interest rates.
The US is not only raising interest rates once, but also normalizing interest rates.
In the next three years, interest rates will be raised from the normal level of 0% to 3%.
There are side effects when interest rates remain at such a low level for a long time:
1. Hot money flowing everywhere will lead to resource allocation errors.
2. It will make it impossible for those who depend on interest income to survive, such as pensions, banks, and investment companies.
3. Once there is another financial crisis in the future, the Fed will have no tools to use.
隨著景氣回升將進入升息階段，
升息對金融業利弊參半，
利多：利差擴大將增加利息收入
利空：債券投資虧損加重，
小銀行容易發生擠兌
Aligned with the economic recovery, we are poised to enter a period of interest rate hikes. The effects of these hikes on the financial industry are twofold.
On the positive side, the broadening interest rate spreads will augment interest income.
Conversely, the negative aspect involves exacerbated losses in bond investments, particularly affecting smaller banks that are susceptible to runs.
金融業持有大量債券，
升息導致債券價格下跌，
雖然會計法允許債券的價格波動
在持有到期之前不計入損益，
可是存戶會擔憂小銀行不堪虧損而擠兌。
銀行擠兌存戶僅損失利息可拿回完整本金，
損失不大致擠兌力度最強。
如2023年即發生SIVB、FRC、CS等銀行連環倒閉。
保險公司則不易出現擠兌，
因保單解約需自承所有價差與利息損失，
會再三考量是否解約。
The financial sector holds a substantial amount of bonds. Increases in interest rates result in a drop in bond prices. Even though accounting standards allow for bonds' price fluctuations not to be recognized as gains or losses until maturity, depositors are concerned that smaller banks may struggle with these losses and therefore initiate a run. During a bank run, depositors might lose only the interest but can recover the entire principal. The losses are relatively minor, which amplifies the intensity of the run. For instance, in 2023, there was a sequence of bank failures like SIV Financial Group (SIVB), First Republic Bank (FRC), Signature Bank (SBNY) and Credit Suisse (CS), further aggravating the situation.
On the other hand, insurance companies are less prone to runs. When policyholders cancel their policies, they bear all the price differences and interest losses, prompting careful consideration before cancellation.
金融股漲跌主要看利率，
原料股則看油價漲跌。
原料股包括塑化、金銀銅鐵紙肥料輪胎及散裝輪，
油價漲是因工業生產需求增加，
工業生產不會只用石油，金銀銅鐵紙也需要。
The rise and fall of financial stocks is mainly influenced by interest rates, while raw material stocks tend to follow oil prices. Raw material stocks encompass various commodities such as plastics, gold, silver, copper, iron, paper, fertilizers, tires, and bulk shipping. An increase in oil prices is typically driven by higher demand for industrial production. This increase in demand will not only lead to the use of more petroleum, but also other raw materials such as gold, silver, copper, iron, and paper.
原料股和景氣循環股的操作策略：
1. 盯準油價或GDP
2. 等股價跌到很便宜時，預期報酬率20%以上再進場
3. 抱超過一個景氣循環，即5年以上
前述策略1.不會判斷時換2.，2.被套牢時採3.
Investment strategy for raw material and cyclical stocks:
1. Follow the trends in oil prices or GDP.
2. Buy when the stock price drops significantly and the expected return exceeds 20%.
3. Hold for more than one business cycle, i.e. more than 5 years.
If you are uncertain about how to judge point 1, then switch to point 2. When point 2 is no longer working, switch to point 3.
若對上述總經的推演完全不能理解，
就忘記它，當我沒講過！
經濟學是很有趣的學科，
可是10個經濟學家推演出來會有12種結果。
面對2008年的通貨緊縮，美國主張印鈔，
歐洲則強調撙節，藥方截然不同，而且還都有效。
If you find the above macroeconomic inferences difficult to understand, don't worry and just ignore them.
Economics is an interesting subject, and even among 10 economists, there can be 12 different conclusions.
For instance, when faced with deflation in 2008, American experts advocated for printing money, while Europe emphasized austerity policies.
Both approaches were effective, despite their completely different prescriptions.
所以若無法理解經濟的推演，
就回歸到按盈再表，好好選股即可，
請記住，我們是幼幼班，不會分析。
Therefore, if you don't understand economic inferences, it's best to stick to On's table and choose stocks carefully. Please keep in mind that we are in the kindergarten class and do not know how to analyze.
相關議題
Related issues
mikeon88發表於 2021-9-3 13:00
有人說美國可以藉由貶值來減輕負債，因為美元是儲備貨幣，
這是流行甚廣的說法，其實不然！
Some people believe that the U.S. can reduce its debt by devaluing the U.S. dollar since it is a reserve currency. However, this is a popular misconception and is not true.
國家和公司的資產負債表記載原則一致，以本國貨幣為基準，
AAPL的財報以美元為計價單位，台積電為台幣。
The balance sheets of both countries and companies are recorded based on the principle of their own currency. For example, AAPL's financial reports are denominated in U.S. dollars, while TSMC's are denominated in Taiwanese dollars.
AAPL借1億美元，美金無論升貶負債都是1億美元，
美金升貶無助於解決它的負債。
AAPL borrowed 100 million U.S. dollars, and regardless of whether the U.S. dollar rises or falls, the debt remains 100 million U.S. dollars. The fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate will not affect the company's debt.
若AAPL借外債，30億元台幣，
在美元兌台幣1:30時，負債記為1億美元。
若美元貶到1:15時，負債增至2億美元， 越貶值負債越高。
只有美元升值才會讓負債減少。
If AAPL borrows foreign debt of 3 billion Taiwan dollars,
and the exchange rate is 1:30 USD/TWD, the liability will be recorded as USD 100 million.
If the dollar depreciates to 1:15, the debt will increase to $200 million,
and the greater the depreciation, the higher the debt.
Only a stronger dollar will reduce the debt.
有人說政府可以印鈔票來償還負債，
鈔票、股票、債券其實都是一張借據，跟人民借錢
印鈔＝央行負債增加
印鈔無法降低政府負債
Some individuals believe that the government can print money to pay off its debts. However, banknotes, stocks, and bonds are essentially IOUs that represent borrowed funds from the public. Money printing results in an increase in central bank liabilities and, thus, cannot effectively reduce government debt.
此外，財報記載不管通貨膨脹，30年前和今年負債1億元，
加計通膨的實質購買力差很多，
但記載上都是1億元，並不會追溯調整。
Furthermore, financial statements do not account for inflation. If inflation is taken into consideration, the actual purchasing power of a $100 million debt 30 years ago and today is significantly different. However, it will still be recorded as $100 million without retroactive adjustment.
所以美元貶值不會減輕美國的負債，
反而會造成債信被調低，
企業借債利率高升，股債匯市大跌。
Depreciation of the U.S. dollar will not reduce U.S. debt; on the contrary, it may lead to a credit rating downgrade and higher borrowing costs for corporations, causing stock and bond markets to decline in the foreign exchange markets.
有人說美元是國際通用貨幣，可以無限印鈔不會破產，
這顯然是錯誤的。
通膨就是貨幣失去價值，
美國正為通膨所苦，
證明美鈔印太多，美國也會破產。
Some individuals claim that the U.S. dollar, being a global currency, can print unlimited money without facing bankruptcy. However, this is an erroneous belief. Inflation occurs when a currency depreciates in value, and the U.S. is currently experiencing inflation. If too much U.S. currency is printed, it could lead to hyperinflation, resulting in the devaluation of the dollar, and ultimately, the U.S. could go bankrupt.
另外有人拿M1b這個指標來看大盤，
中央銀行發行在外鈔票總額是M2，
M1b是M2減掉定存，
定存是被鎖起來的錢，
M1b是比較流通在外的錢。
這個指標常被引為股市潛在動能，
因流通在外的錢多了即容易流進股市。
Some people use M1b as an indicator to monitor the market. The total number of banknotes issued by the central bank is M2. M1b is calculated as M2 minus time deposits that are locked in circulation. M1b represents currency in circulation and is often used as a potential momentum indicator for the stock market. If there is too much currency in circulation, it may flow into the stock market.
用M1b來操作大盤績效會不會更好？
設定M1b年增率最低時買進，最高時賣出。
第一次買在5,600點，之後跌到3,411被斷頭。
6,888點賣出，後來漲到9,598，賣太早了會去撞牆。
Would it be better to use M1b to time the market?
Set a buy signal for M1b when it reaches the lowest annual growth rate and sell when it reaches the highest rate.
Suppose you bought in at an index of 5,600 points, but it dropped to 3,411 points, resulting in a loss of half of your investment and a margin call.
Later, you sold at 6,888 points, only to see the index rise to 9,598 points. You felt frustrated because you sold too early.
第二次買在7,400點，後來崩盤跌到3,955被斷頭兩次。
賣祖產繳了保證金卻在7,300就賣掉，
賠錢出場後眼睜睜看它漲到9,221。
You bought the second time at 7,400 points, but it eventually fell to 3,955 points, causing another margin call. You sold your ancestral property to meet the margin requirement and later sold the stock at 7,300, resulting in a loss. You had to watch helplessly as the stock rose to 9,221.
這兩次根據M1b操作大盤績效其差無比，
別再提這個指標了。
These two transactions have performed very poorly based on M1b. Please do not mention this indicator to me again.
也有人看景氣對策信號燈，
它是由9個變數組成，其中包含了股價指數，
拿它來跟指數對照，這犯了一個錯，
用自己來預測自己，是沒意義的事。
更慘的是，竟然不如GDP理論準！
Some people rely on economic monitoring indicators that include 9 variables, including the stock price index. However, using this indicator to compare with the index can lead to errors. It is redundant to use the same indicator to predict itself.
Even worse, it is not as accurate as GDP Theorem!
M1b和景氣對策信號燈都是沒用的指標。
同學，把不對的東西扔掉，才能找到對的方法。
Both M1b and economic monitoring indicators are useless. Discarding the wrong things can help you find the right path.
景氣對策訊號燈用自己來預測自己，無意義
Economic monitoring indicator is meaningless
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-26 21:22
法人喜歡用景氣對策訊號燈來預測股市，
這也不對，
因燈號裡的變數之一即包含股價，
用自己來預測自己，無意義。
Institutional investors often use economic monitoring indicators to predict the stock market. However, this approach is flawed as one of the variables in the indicator includes the stock price itself. There is no value in using a variable to predict itself.
燈號包括M1b、直接及間接金融、股價指數、工業生產指數、非農業就業人數、海關出口值、機電設備進口值、製造業銷售值、批發零售及餐飲業營業額指數等 9 項。
The indicator comprises nine variables, namely: M1b, direct and indirect finance, stock price index, industrial production index, non-agricultural employment, customs export value, import value of mechanical and electrical equipment, manufacturing sales value, and wholesale and retail and catering industry turnover index.
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-28 19:12
李建德君說股價在燈號裡的變數才占1/9而已
即便包含自己，影響沒那麼大
這顯然是連最基本的數學都沒學好
Jiende Li claimed that the stock price variable only accounts for 1/9 of the signal variables in the economic monitoring indicator. Therefore, even if it includes itself, its impact is minimal. However, his statement suggests a lack of understanding of basic mathematics.
單單看迴歸公式 y = bx + a
等式兩邊分別設成 y 跟 x ，
表示兩邊為不同變數，
這是小學生即懂的道理。
Simply examining the regression model y = bx + a, it is evident that both sides of the equation represent different variables. This is a basic fact that elementary school students can comprehend.
Suppose there is a variable x that is constant 10, x = 10
stock price x
5.8 10
6.1 10
6.5 10
7.4 10
Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 0
現在拿股價和 x 來組成一個燈號
燈 = 股價 + x
Now take stock price and x to form a light signal
Light = stock price + x
stock price light(= stock price + x)
5.8 15.8
6.1 16.1
6.5 16.5
7.4 17.4
Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 1
Stock price only accounts for 1/2 of light signal variables, but correlation coefficient depends entirely on it.
weyzhiro 發表於 2012-1-29 01:54
很好理解，不愧是麥可大，
講得很簡單就懂了 ! !
簡單是最高級的複雜阿 ! ! !
Michael, great job! Your explanation is easy to understand. Indeed, simplicity is the ultimate sophistication!
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-31 01:28
相關係數是指線性相關，x 跟 y 構成一條斜線
The correlation coefficient refers to the linear correlation between x and y, which is represented by a diagonal line.
若 x 跟 y 構成底下3種狀況相關係數為0
1. 橫線或垂直線
2. 散成一團
3. 弧線或曲線
If x and y exhibit any of the following three conditions, the correlation coefficient is 0:
The data points form horizontal or vertical lines.
The data points are scattered around with no discernible pattern.
The data points form an arc or curve.
y = x 能畫出一條斜線，
y = 100x 和 y = 0.01x 也能畫出一條斜線，相關係數都是1。
相關係數跟變數的數字或權數的大小無關。
The equation y = x represents a diagonal line in a scatter plot. Similarly, y = 100x and y = 0.01x also result in diagonal lines, and the correlation coefficient for both lines is 1. The correlation coefficient is independent of the scale and weightings of the variables.
mikeon 發表於 2012-2-1 18:53
奇怪的是，那些跟我辯論景氣對策訊號燈很有用的人，
怎麼從來不曾看過他們在追蹤或討論過這些指標。
為何不追蹤 ? 因跟股價的關係度不高。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起，怎麼突然變重要了呢 ?
無非跟股價指數合在一起的結果，
問題是這樣有意義嗎 ?
What's strange is that the people who argued with me about the usefulness of economic monitoring indicators never seem to track or discuss the individual variables that make up the indicator. The reason being that these variables do not have a strong correlation with stock prices. So why suddenly consider these variables important? It is only because they are combined with the stock index. But does this make sense?
mikeon 發表於 2012-2-2 08:04
Onion桑把 x 變數設成跟股價方向相反的例子來反駁，
說景氣燈號不受股價影響那麼大，
這才是錯誤的類比。
Reader Onion attempted to refute the argument by setting the x variable in the opposite direction to the stock price, and concluding that the economic monitoring indicator is not affected by stock prices. However, this is an inaccurate metaphor.
股價跟這 8 項變數不是負相關，而是相關係數不高，所以才不見有人在觀察它們。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起，
怎麼突然就變重要了呢 ?
因為跟股價合在一起的結果。
The stock prices and other eight variables are not negatively correlated, but their correlation coefficient is not strong enough to attract attention. Hence, these variables are not tracked closely by people. However, when combined with the stock index, these variables suddenly become important. But in reality, their significance is solely due to their association with the stock index.
Onion2012年2月2日 上午6:25
洪先生您好
感謝您針對我的疑問于以賜教，尤其我只是您的著作之一般讀者，並非是貴班的學生.
Hello Mr. On,
Thank you for your guidance on my question. Especially since I am just a general reader of your works, and not a student in your class.
我現在終於了解您的觀點了，就是：
直接及間接金融、工業生產指數,製造業銷售值...等等，它們個個都與大盤指數沒有很強的相關性；如果把它們共同組織成某個指標I，這個I當然與股市也沒有很深的連動性。此時如果把大盤指數再加進它們當中又組成一個新的指標J之後，卻忽然發現這個J與股市相關性很強，那麼我們就可以反推：必然是大盤指數在主導這一新的指標。所以想用這個指標J來預測大盤是沒有意義的。
Now I finally understand your point of view, which is that direct and indirect finance, industrial production index, manufacturing sales value, etc., each of them do not have a strong correlation with the stock market index. If these variables are combined to form a certain indicator I, this I naturally does not have a deep connection with the stock market either. However, if the stock market index is added to these variables to form a new indicator J, suddenly it is found that this J has a strong correlation with the stock market. Therefore, we can deduce that the stock market index is leading this new indicator. Therefore, it is meaningless to use this indicator J to predict the stock market.
如果我以上的領會是正確的，那麼我現在也完全贊同您的觀點，以後也不會再去注意這個景氣燈號了。事實上我還是相當認同您的GDP理論，也準備使用它來規避系統性風險。先前有論者以為GDP理論也有失準的時候而加以批評，我卻主張只要在大多數情況下它都可以準確，就很有價值。
If my understanding above is correct, then I fully agree with your point of view now. In fact, I also quite agree with your GDP theory, and am prepared to use it to avoid systematic risks. Some people have criticized the GDP theory for its occasional deviation, but I think that as long as it is accurate in most cases, it is still very valuable.
最後再次向您致謝，先前對您的觀點所提出的質疑若有冒犯之處，敬請原諒。
即頌時祉
Onion
Finally, I want to thank you again. If there was any offense in my previous questioning of your views, please forgive me.
Best regards,
Onion
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theorem)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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