Kevin桑是電信公司的優秀同仁
擅長網路創業，關鍵字行銷
本次台中同學會特地情商他來演講
對於人生規劃有不同想法的同學
將可得到很大幫助
看Kevin桑的部落格內容五花八門
凱紹的上班族日誌
他的人生一定是多采多姿
他的演講肯定是十分有趣
不要錯過了
2011年8月16日 星期二
許桑：看似不起眼的潛力股
非常榮幸本次台中同學邀請到許桑來演講
分享他的投資經驗
許桑是金融業資深的前輩
投資績效十分傑出
很多持股都賺了好幾倍
許桑最厲害的是眼光獨到
一些看似不起眼的低價潛力股都被他挖掘出來
之前他曾把看好的持股一一分析給我聽
當時我不太能意會
事後卻屢屢證明股價大漲，
不得不令人折服
這次同學會一定要把他選股的秘密好好挖出來
分享他的投資經驗
許桑是金融業資深的前輩
投資績效十分傑出
很多持股都賺了好幾倍
許桑最厲害的是眼光獨到
一些看似不起眼的低價潛力股都被他挖掘出來
之前他曾把看好的持股一一分析給我聽
當時我不太能意會
事後卻屢屢證明股價大漲，
不得不令人折服
這次同學會一定要把他選股的秘密好好挖出來
2011年8月15日 星期一
2Q11波克夏新增二檔股票 DG 和 VRSK
2Q11波克夏新增二檔股票 DG 和 VRSK
At just $48 million, however, the relatively small size of the 1.5 million share stake (as of June 30) indicates Buffett himself did not pull the 'buy' trigger.
He has said his stock moves are usually a billion dollars or more.
Berkshire's new portfolio manager Todd Combs may have made the decision.
Berkshire's just-released snapshot of its U.S. common stock portfolio also lists 2.1 million shares of Verisk Analytics [VRSK 32.21 -0.01 (-0.03%) ] that weren't included in Berkshire's Q1 filing. That's 1.3 percent of Verisk's outstanding shares.
But what looks like a new stake in the New Jersey-based risk assessment company isn't new at all.
When Verisk went public in October of 2009, Berkshire already had an ownership stake that was not sold in the IPO. (Several other insurance company co-owners did sell their shares at that time.)
That stake has been in the form of Class B shares that don't trade publicly. As a result, they have not been included in previous 13-F filings, because only positions in publicly-traded stocks have to be disclosed.
According to the Verisk's web site, however, a chunk of Class B shares were converted in April to Class A shares. The A shares do trade publicly on the Nasdaq, and so we're only now seeing the $68 million position included in Berkshire's filing. (Thanks to the Rational Walk's tweeter for pointing this out.)
Other changes listed in Berkshire's latest 13-F filed with the SEC:
Berkshire's MasterCard [MA 335.00 6.93 (+2.11%) ] stake increased between March 31 and June 30 by 189,000 shares to 405,000 shares. That's an increase of 88 percent. The increased stake is worth $136 million at today's close, also an indication that it wasn't a Buffett decision. (Again, Todd Combs is my best guess.)
Berkshire's massive Wells Fargo [WFC 25.02 0.89 (+3.69%) ] stake edged 3 percent higher with the addition of 9.7 million shares. Its 352.3 million share stake is valued at $8.8 billion at today's close.
Tonight's 13-F also reveals a 5 percent decrease in Berkshire's holdings of Kraft Foods [KFT 34.68 0.28 (+0.81%) ], bringing that stake down by 5.7 million shares to 99.5 million. It's worth $3.4 billion tonight.
Finally, for the second consecutive quarter, Berkshire's filing says that "confidential information has been omitted" and provided separately to the SEC. That could be a sign of a major move in the works that Buffett doesn't want revealed until he's done, to ward off copycat buyers or sellers
可能是梳子買的
其中VRSK還是一家買回庫藏股買到淨值為負的公司
其中VRSK還是一家買回庫藏股買到淨值為負的公司
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44150502
Buffett's Berkshire Adds Dollar General Stake, But Warren Probably Didn't Do the Buying
Published: Monday, 15 Aug 2011 | 5:16 PM ET Text Size By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer
Buffett's Berkshire Adds Dollar General Stake, But Warren Probably Didn't Do the Buying
Published: Monday, 15 Aug 2011 | 5:16 PM ET Text Size By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added a new stake in Dollar General [DG 32.19 0.53 (+1.67%) ] during the second quarter.
At just $48 million, however, the relatively small size of the 1.5 million share stake (as of June 30) indicates Buffett himself did not pull the 'buy' trigger.
He has said his stock moves are usually a billion dollars or more.
Berkshire's new portfolio manager Todd Combs may have made the decision.
Berkshire's just-released snapshot of its U.S. common stock portfolio also lists 2.1 million shares of Verisk Analytics [VRSK 32.21 -0.01 (-0.03%) ] that weren't included in Berkshire's Q1 filing. That's 1.3 percent of Verisk's outstanding shares.
But what looks like a new stake in the New Jersey-based risk assessment company isn't new at all.
When Verisk went public in October of 2009, Berkshire already had an ownership stake that was not sold in the IPO. (Several other insurance company co-owners did sell their shares at that time.)
That stake has been in the form of Class B shares that don't trade publicly. As a result, they have not been included in previous 13-F filings, because only positions in publicly-traded stocks have to be disclosed.
According to the Verisk's web site, however, a chunk of Class B shares were converted in April to Class A shares. The A shares do trade publicly on the Nasdaq, and so we're only now seeing the $68 million position included in Berkshire's filing. (Thanks to the Rational Walk's tweeter for pointing this out.)
Other changes listed in Berkshire's latest 13-F filed with the SEC:
Berkshire's MasterCard [MA 335.00 6.93 (+2.11%) ] stake increased between March 31 and June 30 by 189,000 shares to 405,000 shares. That's an increase of 88 percent. The increased stake is worth $136 million at today's close, also an indication that it wasn't a Buffett decision. (Again, Todd Combs is my best guess.)
Berkshire's massive Wells Fargo [WFC 25.02 0.89 (+3.69%) ] stake edged 3 percent higher with the addition of 9.7 million shares. Its 352.3 million share stake is valued at $8.8 billion at today's close.
Tonight's 13-F also reveals a 5 percent decrease in Berkshire's holdings of Kraft Foods [KFT 34.68 0.28 (+0.81%) ], bringing that stake down by 5.7 million shares to 99.5 million. It's worth $3.4 billion tonight.
Finally, for the second consecutive quarter, Berkshire's filing says that "confidential information has been omitted" and provided separately to the SEC. That could be a sign of a major move in the works that Buffett doesn't want revealed until he's done, to ward off copycat buyers or sellers
2011年8月14日 星期日
台蠟(1742)被業外拖累
From: legend1977
發表於 2011-8-14 21:05看到這間每年大約配兩塊現金的公司
竟然連續兩年配不太出現金，心中難免有點毛毛的
尤其去年在常利創新高的同時，今年竟然也只意思意思發0.2元的現金
過去十年和本業相關的固定資產項目大約穩定維持在三億左右沒有太大變動
可是長期投資項目卻從五年前接近零到如今接近三億
讓我不禁好奇倒底這間公司在投資些什麼
原來它投資的項目可多的很
最主要去年Q4一口氣花一億兩千多萬買下陽明山天籟大飯店14.78%的股份
難怪賺了兩億只發得出0.2元
其它零零總總的投資項目有建設開發公司，有電子科技公司，有LED，有太陽能
業外多其實不一定不好，只要能穩定貢獻獲利，也可以視為常利的一部份
不過總結起來這些業外公司去年總共賠了近五千萬
其中以致恩科技取得成本約四千萬，帳面價值剩三百萬最離譜
過去五年業外表現也只有一年(98年)有為公司帶來獲利
投資天籟之後會不會有所不同呢？
一樣的，我不懂預測，也不想預測，故事還沒演完，看下去就是了
看看去年創新高破兩億的常利可以被業外拖累成這個樣子
再看看今年第一季比腰斬還低的獲利表現....
萬一業外不能帶來正向助益的話，
股東權益因保留盈餘而上升，EPS因獲利衰退而下滑
結果就是ROE會大幅下滑
股價表現可想而知
我是覺得與其保留盈餘去作這種賺不到錢的業外
不如把錢發出來才是對得起股東
華立可以搞定這些麻煩事，就是他的護城河
From: MickyLiu
發表於 2011-8-13 02:03
我來說說自己的經驗與看法
1. 我2009年的時候有分兩次買進 35.5 與22.05，
2010年Q1 43.5元出脫(當時盈再表顯示"貴了")，這還不計股息
我現在也有買一些些，等更跌的時候分批加碼
2. james50899同學有提到 : 從四月起連續到七月皆營收下滑，庫存去化問題較大...
華立代理的供應商包括奇異GE、住友集團、JSR、日本製鋼，
而客戶從台積電到鴻海等等,
人家台積電都說下半年不好....怎麼可能營收會好起來
況且代理商非製造商，此次如果客戶PSI下修，備料也會跟著下修，
當然代理商跟原廠也不用拉那麼多料，也不用拉那麼多庫存進來，
所以這點我較不擔心
3. 好學生特質 : 華立除了很多產品化，屬於多角化經營外
在半導體業或很多電子業使用的材料上有獨佔代理的優勢，就是代理這些所謂王牌材料...
在電子業待過的可能都知道，有些材料還真的不好給他取代，華立剛好就會拿到這些材料的代理權
代理商好做嗎? 其實難度很高
第一要應付原廠的壓力 (有沒有去推材料??)
第二要應付客戶的龜毛 (材料到底能不能用??)
第三要跟採購斡旋報價，(別家廠商都報這麼便宜...你們家材料太貴啦~~)
第四要與客戶、原廠確認拉料的時程是否會delay，(我這個月要一噸的量, 你還給我只來500公升??)
第五要應付客戶的急拉料急殺料 (ㄟ... 我們有急單, 快點送料來吧.....或是 抱歉齁...景氣下修, 我這個月不要那麼多料進來啦~~)
第六要與品質單位確認相關品質文件與入料檢的問題 (符不符合歐盟的Rohs阿?? 這次出貨品質怎麼搞的??你給我來處理!!)
第七還要應付每季的cost down....等等
總歸一句話，就是原廠不想麻煩的，就交給代理商做，
客戶不想跟原廠直接要求的, 就叫代理商去做
----- >我認為華立可以搞定這些麻煩事，把客戶與原廠都服侍的很好，這就是他的護城河， 他的優勢
之前Mike也有說過公司競爭力與風險在哪 ?「並不是單一原因造成的，外人，即便是產業分析師，很難探就其真正原因。」
所以只要看得出結果就好
發表於 2011-8-13 02:03
我來說說自己的經驗與看法
1. 我2009年的時候有分兩次買進 35.5 與22.05，
2010年Q1 43.5元出脫(當時盈再表顯示"貴了")，這還不計股息
我現在也有買一些些，等更跌的時候分批加碼
2. james50899同學有提到 : 從四月起連續到七月皆營收下滑，庫存去化問題較大...
華立代理的供應商包括奇異GE、住友集團、JSR、日本製鋼，
而客戶從台積電到鴻海等等,
人家台積電都說下半年不好....怎麼可能營收會好起來
況且代理商非製造商，此次如果客戶PSI下修，備料也會跟著下修，
當然代理商跟原廠也不用拉那麼多料，也不用拉那麼多庫存進來，
所以這點我較不擔心
3. 好學生特質 : 華立除了很多產品化，屬於多角化經營外
在半導體業或很多電子業使用的材料上有獨佔代理的優勢，就是代理這些所謂王牌材料...
在電子業待過的可能都知道，有些材料還真的不好給他取代，華立剛好就會拿到這些材料的代理權
代理商好做嗎? 其實難度很高
第一要應付原廠的壓力 (有沒有去推材料??)
第二要應付客戶的龜毛 (材料到底能不能用??)
第三要跟採購斡旋報價，(別家廠商都報這麼便宜...你們家材料太貴啦~~)
第四要與客戶、原廠確認拉料的時程是否會delay，(我這個月要一噸的量, 你還給我只來500公升??)
第五要應付客戶的急拉料急殺料 (ㄟ... 我們有急單, 快點送料來吧.....或是 抱歉齁...景氣下修, 我這個月不要那麼多料進來啦~~)
第六要與品質單位確認相關品質文件與入料檢的問題 (符不符合歐盟的Rohs阿?? 這次出貨品質怎麼搞的??你給我來處理!!)
第七還要應付每季的cost down....等等
總歸一句話，就是原廠不想麻煩的，就交給代理商做，
客戶不想跟原廠直接要求的, 就叫代理商去做
----- >我認為華立可以搞定這些麻煩事，把客戶與原廠都服侍的很好，這就是他的護城河， 他的優勢
之前Mike也有說過公司競爭力與風險在哪 ?「並不是單一原因造成的，外人，即便是產業分析師，很難探就其真正原因。」
所以只要看得出結果就好
2011年8月13日 星期六
當同學強力在質疑GDP理論不準時，通常就是大盤的高點(或低點)
From: mikeon
發表於 2011-8-12 20:28
我的經驗是這樣
當同學強力在質疑GDP理論不準時
通常就是大盤的高點(或低點)
這次又應驗了
所以我很重視同學率直的反應
Skyalso桑，謝啦
發表於 2011-8-12 20:28
我的經驗是這樣
當同學強力在質疑GDP理論不準時
通常就是大盤的高點(或低點)
這次又應驗了
所以我很重視同學率直的反應
Skyalso桑，謝啦
換一個讓人可執行到底的說法
From: mikeon
發表於 2011-8-13 22:23
最近在跟宥聰桑聊天的時候
他總會稱讚我兩句
說我在9,000點被同學強力質疑GDP理論不準時
仍不改其志，立場堅定
唯一的改變只是從「GDP低點才是買點」
改成「1/3加減碼原則」控制好持股比例，
這項修正漫畫家EZ桑也問過我
我的解釋是
這純粹只是換一個比較合乎人性，讓人可執行到底的說法
讓那些剛剛在練神功的初學者得以堅持下去
最近股票大跌，在討論區看很多同學紛紛表示，
「還好當時有聽Mike的話，持股僅有1/3」
因為我的辦法救了很多同學，免於被大量套在高點
誠可謂苦心孤詣
奈何有些同學看不出來
發表於 2011-8-13 22:23
最近在跟宥聰桑聊天的時候
他總會稱讚我兩句
說我在9,000點被同學強力質疑GDP理論不準時
仍不改其志，立場堅定
唯一的改變只是從「GDP低點才是買點」
改成「1/3加減碼原則」控制好持股比例，
這項修正漫畫家EZ桑也問過我
我的解釋是
這純粹只是換一個比較合乎人性，讓人可執行到底的說法
讓那些剛剛在練神功的初學者得以堅持下去
最近股票大跌，在討論區看很多同學紛紛表示，
「還好當時有聽Mike的話，持股僅有1/3」
因為我的辦法救了很多同學，免於被大量套在高點
誠可謂苦心孤詣
奈何有些同學看不出來
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