無敵丁香魚發表於 2021-9-3 11:20
我比較擔心的是政府撒錢造成的高額負債
會刻意利用通膨來讓負債相對容易清償 !!
如果是這樣，喊升息可能也只是作作樣子
I am more worried about the high debt caused by the government printing money
will deliberately use inflation to make debts relatively easy to pay off !
If so, calling for a rate hike may just be a gesture.
mikeon88發表於 2021-9-3 11:41
如果搞個通膨就可以解決債務，
委內瑞拉的負債不早還清了？
If you create inflation, you can settle debts.
Is Venezuela's debt almost paid off?
jamescctungus發表於 2021-9-3 12:11
個人以為這種能靠通膨來稀釋債務的國家
目前只有美國或是能夠靠本國貨幣發得出大量國際債券的國家。
美國聯儲的負債表可以隨隨便便就膨脹個幾倍
主要是靠世界各國的主要外匯儲備是美元和美國國債，
當美元實質購買力下降，
被美國綁架的全世界主要國家只能啞巴吃黃蓮有口說不出。
其他敢隨便印鈔票的國家像委內瑞拉或辛巴威
或1949年以前的國民政府只能等著破產或被趕下台。
I personally think that countries that can use inflation to dilute their debts are currently only the United States or one country that can issue a large number of international bonds in its own currency.
The Fed’s balance sheet can be expanded several times at will.
The main reason is that the main foreign exchange reserves of all countries in the world are the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.
When the actual purchasing power of the U.S. dollar declines,
The major countries in the world kidnapped by the United States can only be speechless.
Other countries that dare to print money like Venezuela or Zimbabwe
or the KMT Government before 1949 could only wait for bankruptcy or ouster.
mikeon88發表於 2021-9-3 13:00
美國可以藉由貶值來減輕負債，因為美元是儲備貨幣，
這是流行甚廣的說法，其實不然！
The U.S. can reduce its debt by devaluing because the U.S. dollar is reserve currency.
This is a popular saying, but it is not true !
國家和公司的資產負債表記載原則一致，以本國貨幣為基準，
AAPL的財報以美元為計價單位，台積電為台幣。
The balance sheets of the country and the company are recorded on the same principle, based on the itself currency.
AAPL’s financial reports are denominated in U.S. dollars,
TSM is the Taiwan dollar.
AAPL借1億美元，美金無論升貶負債都是1億美元，
美金升貶無助於解決它的負債。
AAPL borrowed 100 million U.S. dollars, and regardless of whether the U.S. dollar rose or fell, the debt was 100 million U.S. dollars.
The rise and fall of the dollar will not help resolve its debt.
若AAPL借外債，30億元台幣，
在美元兌台幣1:30時，負債記為1億美元。
若美元貶到1:15時，負債增至2億美元， 越貶值負債越高。
只有美元升值才會讓負債減少。
If AAPL borrows foreign debt, 3 billion Taiwan dollars.
At 1:30 USD/TWD, the liability was recorded at USD 100 million.
If the dollar depreciates to 1:15, the debt will increase to $200 million,
and the more the depreciation, the higher the debt.
Only a stronger dollar will reduce debt.
有人說政府可以印鈔票來償還負債，
鈔票、股票、債券其實都是一張借據，跟人民借錢
印鈔＝央行負債增加
印鈔無法降低政府負債
Some people say that the government can print money to pay off debts.
Banknotes, stocks, and bonds are actually an IOU, borrowing money from people.
Money printing = increase in central bank liabilities
Printing money cannot reduce government debt.
此外，財報記載不管通貨膨脹，30年前和今年負債1億元，
加計通膨的實質購買力差很多，
但記載上都是1億元，並不會追溯調整。
In addition, financial reporting records do not consider inflation.
The actual purchasing power of the $100 million debt 30 years ago and this year is very different if inflation is included.
However, it is recorded as $100 million and will not be adjusted retrospectively.
所以美元貶值不會減輕美國的負債，
反而會造成債信被調低，
企業借債利率高升，股債匯市大跌。
Therefore, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will not reduce U.S. debt.
On the contrary, it will lead to a reduction in debt credit,
corporate bond interest rates have risen, and the stock and bond foreign exchange markets have plummeted.
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