利率低和現金流穩定就可以借錢買股？

利率低和現金流穩定就可以借錢買股？

With low interest rates and stable cash flow, can I borrow money to buy stocks?

Raimu發表於 2021-8-3 18:30 

最好是可以現金買房

買完直接抵押再借出來

這樣你只要付少量利息，就能同時吃房價增值跟股票增值

前提是你的現金流要夠穩

It is best to buy a house with cash. Mortgage out after purchase.

In this way, you only need to pay a little interest and you can enjoy all the capital gains from houses and stocks.

The premise is that your cash flow is stable enough.

Raimu發表於 2021-8-6 13:07 

我月薪超過25萬

我不需要股票的殖利率

My monthly salary is over NT$250,000.

I don't need cash flow from stock yield.

totu530發表於 2021-8-5 16:13 

我好幾年前就聽過「投資型房貸」

只是當時沒有要買房需求而最近有考慮購房，

所以想了解是否有哪幾家銀行推的投資型房貸不錯

I heard of "Investment Mortgage Loan" many years ago

It's just that I didn't need to buy a house at that time, but I was considering buying a house recently.

So I want to know if there are any banks that provide good investment mortgages.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-6 22:52 

借錢投資從來不是利率多低或現金流穩定的問題，

而是買股票會賠錢，

巴班方法也有27%機率賠錢

Borrowing money to invest is never a question of how low interest rates are or how stable cash flow is.

But the possibility of losing money when buying stocks is very high.

Even with Buffett Class methods, there is a 27% chance of losing money.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-6 23:04 

借款5,000萬元買股，套牢賠了500萬元，

還款本月到期需歸還本金5,000萬元，

即便月薪25萬元又如何？

Borrowed NT$ 50 million to buy stocks, and finally lost NT$ 5 million.

The principal of NT$ 50 million must be returned when the repayment is due this month.

Even if your monthly salary is as high as NT$250,000, it is not enough to repay it.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-6 23:46 

請各位回顧2020/3/24時自己的績效是多悽慘？

虧損20%以上者比比皆是。

若當時銀行要求還款怎麼辦？

才去年的事，殷鑑不遠

高勝算？不要對自己太有信心

Please review how bad your performance was on 2020/3/24?

Many of you lose more than 20%.

What if the bank asked for repayment at that time?

This is only last year, and just learned a lesson.

Don't be overconfident in your investment skills.

雜工發表於 2021-8-7 00:53 

我來舉我個人真實慘痛的失敗經歷分享。

在還沒回到巴班，2018年之前，我的房貸，前2年只付利息，第3年開始付本息，我卻用理財型房貸，以貸養貸。而股票多用融資，大都賠錢收場，也大概打了3～4年「全職的」股期當沖，最後是賠光錢，賠到沒錢生活和繳房貸。

Let me share a real and painful personal failure experience.

Before returning to Buffett's class, before 2018, my mortgage only paid the interest for the first 2 years, and I started to repay the principal and interest in the third year, but I used the investment mortgage to support loans and investments.

I trade stocks through margin loans, and most of my trades are at a loss. 

After 3 to 4 years of "full-time" stocks and futures trader, I lost all my money. I lost my money to live and pay the mortgage.

當時房地產是漲價的，想增貸或轉貸卻都四處碰壁，因為提不出還款能力證明，戶頭也無存款證明，「專職投資人」這頭銜好聽，沒有半家公民營銀行、農會或信用合作社願意讓我增貸或轉貸，連類似於裕融這種民間貸款的轉貸也都不願意，剩下地下錢莊高利貸是我絕不走的一條路。

The property price has risen and I want to increase the loan or refinance, but I was rejected because I have no proof of repayment ability and no proof of account deposit.

The title of "full-time investor" sounds good. Private banks, peasant associations, and credit cooperatives are unwilling to let me increase or on-lending, even private loans like Yulong Finance are not willing to on-lending.

The remaining underground bank loan shark is a path I will never take.

找了銀行商量，最後因擔心房子被法拍，只能忍痛低價快速出售，2018年尾處理掉房子和負債，幸好還有一點點剩餘，自知不能再這樣下去，於是在2019年1月打電話給老師，在當頭棒喝後才覺醒回頭。這部分，我在個人的持股分享那篇，或多或少有敘述過。

I consulted with the bank, and finally because I was worried that the house would be foreclosed, I had to reluctantly sell it at a low price.

The house and debts were dealt with at the end of 2018. Fortunately, there was still a little bit left. I knew I couldn’t continue this way, so I called Michael in January 2019.

He woke me up after severe reprimand. This part, I personally shared the article, more or less talked about it.

還款期限已屆，沒錢可還，銀行當然催收啊，繼續還不出錢就被法拍賤價拍賣掉不動產啊。持股套牢賠錢，想用當沖力挽狂瀾，卻又賠更多，惡性循環下去，到某一天逼到了也不得不處理。身邊沒錢，連三餐都出問題，借錢借到親友避之唯恐不及，這時該如何處置？只剩賣掉房子和動產，看能解決多少算多少啊！

The repayment period has expired and there is no money to repay, of course the bank will send a collection notice.

If you do not repay, the mortgage is foreclosed at a low price.

After losing money in the stock, I tried to win it back through day trading, but I lost more.

The vicious circle continues, and one day it is forced to be dealt with. I don’t have money around, and I have problems with all meals.

I tried to borrow money from relatives and friends, and they all avoided me.

What should I do at this time? Sell houses and properties, all your valuables!

我說過，同學們不會像我這般不幸，所以不會碰到這些真實經慘痛經歷。

8年後，2019年1月回到巴班。

2019.12.31 美股持股獲利約+11％

2020.03.22 新冠病毒最慘時帳面虧損約-40％（慘啊！）

2021.05.10 帳面績效約+32％

殷鑑不遠，戒慎恐懼！

感恩Mike桑把我拉回來啊！

慚愧！慚愧！

As I said, my classmates will not be as miserable as me, so you will not encounter my real painful experiences.

After 8 years, I returned to Buffett Class in January 2019.

2019.12.31 I made about +11% on U.S. stocks.

2020.03.22 During the coronavirus pandemic, I lost 40% at the worst time. (How painful !)

2021.05.10 I won 32%

Remember the lessons just learned. Always be careful.

Thank you Mr. Mike for pulling me back !

I will always keep it in mind.

卡森發表於 2021-8-6 21:51 

其實資金要拿來投資股票還是買房，mike有分享他的見解，

詳見房屋文章分類中「現在該賣房嗎？」這個主題。

In fact, if the funds should be used to invest in stocks or to buy houses, Mike has shared his insights.

See the topic "Should I Sell the House Now?" in the housing article category for details.

Mike回覆在#6，以下直接轉貼Mike的回覆

「你會不會成為有錢人？

是可以算的，不是算命，用簡單數學！

Mike replied at #6, the following directly reposted Mike’s reply.

"Will you become rich?"

It can be calculated in advance, not fortune telling, just use simple math!

成為有錢人即把現有財產翻幾倍，

可是若在高點買房子，20年後房價若比現在低，或高不了幾倍，

此生就跟有錢人無緣了，

因人一輩子大概只能買一間房，等於一個人的總資產。

Getting rich means increasing existing wealth several times.

However, if you buy a house at a high point, 20 years later, the house price will be lower than it is now, or it will not be several times higher than it is now.You have no chance to get rich.

Because a person can only buy a house in his lifetime, which is equal to a person's total assets.

可是買股票年績效10%，看起來不起眼，20年後卻增值近6倍。

這樣就很容易比較該買房或股票了。

However, the annual performance of buying stocks is 10%, which seems not outstanding, but 20 years later, it has increased by nearly 6 times.

This makes it easy for us to compare whether we are buying a house or buying stocks.

所以應該先投資，等賺到一間房子的價值之後再去貸款買房，

付了3成頭期款買房，而仍有7成資本可繼續投資，

如此既有了房子，投資本金仍大。

Therefore, you should invest first, make money to buy a house and then take a loan to buy a house.

You paid a down payment of 30% to buy a house, and 70% of the funds can continue to invest,

So now that you have a house, the investment principal is still very large.

相反的，若先買房等20年後房貨繳清了再投資，

此時年紀大了，巴菲特方法也未學成功，投資失敗機率高，

很難成為有錢人」

Conversely, if you buy a house first, you have to wait 20 years to repay the loan before investing.

At this time, you are getting older and have not studied Buffett's method well. The probability of investment failure is very high.

Getting rich is not easy.

vedialeo發表於 2021-8-7 03:17 

針對mike的問題

小弟的回復是：「不做超過自已能力範圍與傷害信用的事」

My answer to Mike’s question is: "Don’t do things that you cannot afford and damage your credibility."

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-7 10:00 

月薪25萬元的人，借5,000萬元買股，利率1.8%

算不算在自己能力範圍？

每個負債累累的人最初都認為在自己能力範圍。

People with a monthly salary of NT$ 250,000, borrow NT$ 50 million to buy stocks, with an interest rate of 1.8%

Is it within their capacity ?

Everyone who is heavily in debt initially thinks they can afford it.

結果持股套牢賠了500萬元，

還款本月到期需歸還本金5,000萬元，

馬上變成超過自己能力範圍

As a result, he lost NT$ 5 million in stocks he held.

The principal of NT$ 50 million must be returned when the repayment is due this month.

Immediately it became beyond the range of one's abilities.

vedialeo發表於 2021-8-7 03:17 

小弟對股票、公司、房地產皆有涉獵參與

合夥公司貸款也曾經在9位數，於前年攤還完

曾笑笑的說很早就成為「億來億去的人」但是負債

I am involved in stocks, companies and real estate.

The partnership I joined used to have a 9-figure loan, which was paid off last year.

I smiled and said that I became a "billionaire" but I was in debt.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-7 10:30 

公司的資金哪些需要舉債或自有資金端視事業項目是否穩定而定，

若是不穩定的，產品價格波動大、現金流不穩定，或資本密集

應該用自有資金或辦現金增資因應。

若是穩定的則可以舉債，如超商

Which fund company needs to borrow or own funds depends on whether the business project is stable.

If it is unstable, the product price fluctuates greatly, the cash flow is unstable, or the capital is intensive, you should pay your own funds or issue shares.

If it is stable, you can borrow money, such as supermarkets

這是為何台積電負債比低，而鴻海高的原因，

因為晶圓代工產品價格波動大、景氣循環明顯，以及資本密集。

鴻海可以高負債，因為蘋果的訂單穩定

This is why TSMC’s debt ratio is low, while Hon Hai’s high.

Because the price of IC foundry products fluctuates greatly, the business cycle is volatile, and the capital is intensive.

Hon Hai can be highly indebted because Apple’s orders are stable.

這也說明為何買房可以有7成槓桿，而買股不能融資

因為房價不太會暴跌，而股價波動劇烈

This also explains why buying a house can have 70% leverage, while buying stocks shouldn't.

Because house prices are unlikely to plummet, stock prices fluctuate sharply.

股價波動大的原因之一，

公司本身已經有負債了，負債比6-7成，

投資人若再動用融資買進，等於雙重槓桿，

很容易被斷頭血本無歸。

One of the reasons for the large fluctuations in stock prices,

the company itself already has debts, with a debt ratio of 60% to 70%.

If investors use financing to buy again, it is equivalent to double leverage.

It is easy to be margin-called and lose everything.

kandv124發表於 2021-8-5 21:47 

好好珍惜巴菲特這論壇....

裡面藏了一堆身價破千萬，破億的人物....

幾乎都是站在食物鏈頂端的掠食者 !

Cherish this forum of Buffett Class...

Hidden inside are a bunch of people worth over 10 million and over 100 million dollars...

They are all predators at the top of the money chain !