8899年8月1日 星期六

巴菲特班講稿與盈再表免費下載



我的學生雷大(魏睿宏)在文章裡剽竊了我的選股原則還跑去告我違反投信投顧法,所以我決定把巴菲特班全面公開,免費讓大家閱讀講稿及下載盈再表,無需註冊,歡迎到處散發。
巴菲特班不再開課,只在討論區公開討論。

網頁盈再表:stocks.ddns.net (點我)

(請在該網頁右上角巴菲特圓形頭像處免費註冊登錄使用)


(講稿為上課逐字稿,讀講稿等同上課,
可不必再看上面二本拙著,因講稿內容更完整。
買書請逕洽網路書店,本人不賣書)

(若討論區進不去,應是網站在維修,跟本人無關,請稍待幾天。
只要這世上還有窮人巴班討論區就不會關閉。)


講稿和盈再表公開後 (點我)
雷的方法跟巴菲特班很像 (點我)

宥聰同學說:「你將成為所有投資人的老師!」

id4eric2同學:「這裡是網路財神廟,我常來參拜!」




在學投資的路上,大學唸統計,碩士論文寫專家系統,在外資當電子股分析師,之後離開券商讓我得以跳脫舊有框架找到巴菲特,波克夏年報讀了四遍,開了巴菲特班,設計出盈再表,史上最便利的選股工具。


以下英文俱由ChatGPT翻譯 (The following English translations were provided by ChatGPT.)

On the path of learning to invest, I studied statistics in college and wrote my master’s thesis on expert systems. I worked as a tech stock analyst at a foreign securities house. Later, I left the brokerage industry, which allowed me to break free from old frameworks and discover Warren Buffett. I read Berkshire Hathaway’s annual reports four times, started a Buffett course, and designed the Michael On's Table — the most convenient stock-picking tool in history.


統計、寫程式、投資,我樣樣稀鬆略懂皮毛,卻恰好成為最適合發明盈再表的人,若分別找三個領域的專家在溝通困難下十倍時間也做不出來。很多人問我盈再表上各項獨門指標的設定可曾查閱過大量書籍?其實完全沒有,都是靈感自然流露。看著年報中一段文字我Excel表格一拉即發明了盈再率;預期報酬率是坐在馬桶上突然宣洩而下;預期常利則是在路上靈光乍現 ...。很驚訝不太會唸書的我居然看得懂年報,並把它量化成明確可依循的標準,還出現小天使Alex吳同學開發出功能強大的網頁盈再表。時間一到答案就會浮現,彷彿有老天爺引導。


Statistics, programming, investing — I only have a modest grasp of each, but that’s exactly what made me the perfect person to invent the On's Table. If you brought together experts from all three fields, they might spend ten times the effort and still not succeed, simply because of communication barriers.

Many people ask whether I consulted a mountain of books to define the unique indicators used in the On's Table. The truth is, I didn’t — they all came to me through spontaneous inspiration. A single phrase in an annual report sparked the creation of the Profit Reinvestment Rate as I dragged cells in Excel. The Expected Return Rate came to me out of the blue while sitting on the toilet. The concept of Expected Recurring Net Profit struck like lightning while I was walking down the street.

I’m still amazed that someone like me — never a top student — could not only understand annual reports but also distill them into clear, actionable metrics. Then, as if by fate, along came a little angel, Alex Wu, who built a powerful web-based version of the On's Table.


這是我的大半生,順序銜接得剛剛好,可是仍然有一個遺憾不能在大學時就學會巴菲特神功,賺大錢需靠複利效果越早開始越好。我出社會即當分析師,學了一堆無用的技術分析和外資基本面研究,蹉跎了十二年才真正領悟巴菲特。我希望巴菲特方法能成為每個人的必修課,盈再表永遠流傳。跟基督教一樣如果需要繳費才能上教堂將難以傳播福音,老天指引我免費公開講稿與盈再表,讓本討論區成為人人每天必來禮拜的教堂。歡迎諸位大德都來信巴菲特教,帶著家人一起按盈再表,傳承下去就能世世代代永保富貴。


This has been the story of most of my life — each step unfolding exactly as it should. Yet I still carry one regret: not learning Buffett’s wisdom back in college. To truly build wealth, you need the power of compounding — and the earlier you start, the better.

When I first entered the workforce as an analyst, I studied various ineffective technical analyses and foreign fundamental research. It took me twelve years of trial and error before I finally grasped Buffett’s true approach.

I hope Buffett’s method becomes a required course for everyone, and that the On’s Table is passed down through generations. Just like Christianity — if attending church required a fee, spreading the gospel would be difficult. Guided by a higher power, I’ve chosen to make my lecture notes and the On’s Table freely available, turning this forum into a kind of temple — a place people return to daily for inspiration.

I warmly invite all of you, fellow believers, to join the faith of Buffett. Bring your families, use the On’s Table together, and pass it on. That way, generation after generation can enjoy lasting wealth and enduring prosperity.


洪瑞泰是把巴菲特理論講清楚的第一人,艱澀的投資理論在他巧妙的比喻下竟饒富趣味。台股開始流行選股看ROE、配得出現金、好學生特質皆啟蒙於他2004年出版的「巴菲特選股魔法書」。


Michael On was the first to clearly explain Buffett’s theory. What was once a complex investment concept became surprisingly accessible and engaging through his clever metaphors. The widespread popularity of stock selection based on ROE, cash dividends, and economic moat in the Taiwan stock market can all be traced back to his 2004 book, Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection.



他發明的盈再表是最簡單方便的投資工具,個股好壞一目瞭然,地雷股無所遁形,輕鬆做遍台、美、港、中、全球49國股票。

The On’s Table he invented is the simplest and most user-friendly stock-picking tool available. It allows you to instantly assess the quality of individual stocks, leaving no risky investments hidden. With it, you can effortlessly analyze stocks from Taiwan, the U.S., Hong Kong, China, and 49 other countries around the world.

洪瑞泰更是唯一敢把股票帳戶完整長期公開的人,以身作則而且言行合一。他的績效驚人,二本巨著「巴菲特選股魔法書」和「巴菲特選股神功」後的入圍名單中碳、大統益、台積電、和泰車、巨大、裕融、豐泰、茂順,檔檔漲幅數倍,遠遠打敗大盤。美股 UNH、CSX、GD、MMM、RHI、DGX、JPM也翻了幾翻。

Mike is also the only person brave enough to fully and continuously disclose his stock accounts, leading by example with consistency between his words and actions. His performance is remarkable. Among the stocks listed after his two major works, Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection and Warren Buffett's Skills of Stock Selection, companies like China Steel Chemical (1723.TW), TTET Union (1232.TW), TSM, Hotai Motor (2207.TW), Giant (9921), Yulon Finance (9941.TW), Feng Tay (9910.TW), and NAK Sealing Tech (9942.TW) all saw their prices multiply several times, far outperforming the broader market. U.S. stocks such as UNH, CSX, GD, MMM, RHI, DGX, and JPM also grew multiple times over.

自2003年開班以來,洪瑞泰教出一堆傑出校友賺了大錢,見諸於理財雜誌。許多同學的一生因而改變,移民澳洲,財務自由,連鐵工廠銑床技師也轟轟烈烈在投資全世界。

Since starting his classes in 2003, Hong Ruitai has taught a group of outstanding alumni who have made significant profits, as featured in financial magazines. Many students have had their lives transformed — some immigrated to Australia, achieved financial freedom, and even a milling machine technician from an iron factory has been enthusiastically investing globally.

討論區是本班一大瑰寶,巴菲特班從投資台股到征戰全世界,全是同學群策群力,樂於分享的結果。學投資除了上課聽講之外,平常實際操作的過程中必有很多疑惑產生,跟同好討論是很重要的方法。本班同學高手如雲,共同研究,進步一日千里。

The discussion forum is a great treasure of our class. From investing in Taiwan stocks to conquering the global market, the Buffett class’s success is the result of students working together and happily sharing their insights. Learning to invest isn’t just about attending lectures — countless questions arise during hands-on practice, and discussing them with like-minded peers is an essential approach. Our class is filled with experts who study together and make rapid progress every day.

來投資全世界吧!到世界各地買最好的公司。只要開個美股帳戶就可以買到全世界股票,世界最好的公司都到美國發行ADR,台積電即有ADR。

Invest globally ! Buy shares in the world’s best companies. With just a U.S. stock account, you can buy stocks from around the world. The world’s top companies all issue ADRs in the U.S., and TSMC even has an ADR.

投資美股不用懂英文,只要會看盈再表就好。美國公司我們還比較熟悉,可口可樂都喝過吧,可是中碳喝過嗎?一定沒有!

Investing in U.S. stocks doesn’t require English — you just need to know how to read the On’s Table. We’re generally more familiar with American companies; after all, everyone has drunk Coca-Cola, but have you ever heard of China Steel Chemical ? Probably not !

投資美股將眼界大開,談論的均為世界級公司。當賓士汽車的股東比較好呢還是裕隆汽車?

Investing in U.S. stocks will broaden your horizons, as you’ll be dealing with world-class companies. Which would you rather be a shareholder of: Mercedes-Benz or Yulon Motor ?

投資美股還可以規避匯率風險。這幾年貨幣貶值很可怕,俄國盧布、巴西里耳,甚至英鎊都貶值5成以上,一輩子努力的成果一夕之間少掉一半,有必要把匯率風險避掉。

Investing in U.S. stocks can also help you avoid currency exchange risk. In recent years, currency devaluation has been severe — the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and even the British pound have all lost more than 50% of their value. A lifetime of hard work can be cut in half overnight, so it’s essential to manage and hedge against exchange rate risks.

若覺得前途茫茫,投資美股是一條最立即可行的出路。在各國股市都能賺到錢就不會被困在一隅,從此自由自在。

If the future feels uncertain, investing in U.S. stocks offers one of the quickest and most practical ways forward. Once you can profit from markets around the world, you’ll no longer be limited by geography — and can enjoy true financial freedom.

討論區公開給大眾瀏覽,發言僅限本班同學。 
[洽詢專線] 0918-519-606,mikeon88@gmail.com

[班規] 發言涉及人身攻擊情節重大者,將直接開除,中止其在本班一切權利。討論區如同教室需要維持秩序,否則將劣幣驅逐良幣。禁止語言霸凌,凡事公開透明,不吝褒揚感謝同學貢獻,本討論區才得以形成同學樂於分享的風氣。

感謝青含國、鄭仁壽、范世琦三位律師,尤其青含國律師專業且富正義感,推薦給大家。

2025年5月28日 星期三

2025 買滿抱到川普卸任

mikeon88 9 1 2025 - 15:04

我來猜一下

這波台股指數會跌破2萬點

即去年八月的低點。


至於以下多低則不知,

所以不要一跌破2萬就跳進去。

今天大盤收在23,081


以上係根據GDP理論推估,

純屬猜測不必當真



mikeon88 2025-2-6 22:33


買進LYG 3,226@3.11美元

英國最大消費銀行


買進SIRI 388@25.96美元

跟巴菲特的單,買回庫藏股淨值為負

謝謝ArthurWang桑的介紹

https://mikeon88.666forum.com/t390-topic#8040



mikeon88 2025-2-6 23:24


買進ACHC 223@44.95美元

chunhsieh桑的單,謝謝




mikeon88 2025-2-9 11:06


我會盡量在GDP低點買股票

只不過這次股市呈兩極化表現

AI股和金融股撐住指數

傳產股則跟著GDP下跌

巴菲特買的SIRI讓我發現

許多股票的低點陸陸續續出現在GDP低點


買股票勿陷入「現在可以買了嗎?」的泥沼,

不是非黑即白的問題

GDP低點附近看到便宜的股票就可以慢慢撿了

我留有1300萬元台幣現金,

每檔買30萬的話可以買40支股票,

上週四買了3檔還不到可買的1/10

所以就無所顧慮進場撿了



mikeon88 2025-2-10 22:30


買進BG 145@69.45美元

預期報酬率22%



mikeon88 2025-2-10 23:56


買進CB 38@265.74美元

跟巴菲特的單



去年已經大漲,加上金融股買太多

讓我遲疑了兩天但不追卻越會漲

只好底下5檔先各買半個單位5千美元

讓心情安定最重要

以後若有類似狀況將比照辦理


買進BCS 328@15.22美元

pinkdavid桑的單

買進ING 302@16.6美元

跟王一勛桑和阿宏桑的單

買進NWG 445@11.26美元

pinkdavid桑的單

買進HSBC 92@54.57美元

pinkdavid桑的單

買進AXAHY 128@39.33美元

eva桑和阿宏桑的單




mikeon88 2025-2-17 11:16


買進環球晶(6488) 2@345




mikeon88 2025-2-20 11:59


買進根基(2546) 7@74.5

chunhsieh桑的單,謝謝




mikeon88 2025-2-24 22:51


讀完年報,老巴說祂準備加碼五大商社

我也加碼四大商社各半個單位5千美金

第一大商社三菱商社無ADR

另外加碼1萬美元BRK.B

因川普可能退稅


買進BRK.B 21@492.9美元

買進MITSY 14@363.5美元

買進ITOCY 61@82.7美元

買進MARUY 33@153.0美元

買進SSUMY 228@21.9美元




mikeon88 2025-2-3 17:02


虛幣大崩盤

今年會讓喜歡高科技追飆股玩槓桿看理財雜誌網紅的少年股神破產



daedalus53 2025-2-25 19:25


因為巴班的投資方式少有交易頻次,之前的營業員來跟我聊天,問有什麼好投資可以介紹,我把巴班有投資的報了個遍,過程只覺得營業員的神情越來越低落就止住嘴,反關心問道都投資些什麼?營業員一臉的驕傲說:沒有啦,我都投資幣圈。當下我很同情他的這份自豪,但追問績效如何時,聲音逐漸越來越小。

心裡想像著他認真拜訪客戶的身影,卻惋惜年輕人還有好長的苦日子要過。選擇比努力還重要,感謝MIKE大與所有同學。



mikeon88 2025-3-12 10:05


買進全家(5903) 3@197.5




mikeon88 2025-3-12 13:01


天吶!將錯就錯

不打算賣了

謝謝一勛桑發現錯誤




mikeon88 2025-4-7 22:13


加碼AFL 102@99美元

買進MS 101@101美元




川普關稅



mikeon88 2025-4-7 22:27


買進4檔營建股各5千美金半個單位

買進PHM 50@99.97美元

買進TOL 51@98.63美元

買進DHI 40@123.9美元

買進LEN 47@107.95美元



 

mikeon88 2025-4-8 9:02


加碼富邦金 5@76.7




mikeon88 2025-4-11 16:12


美股正在醞釀另一波大多頭

若關稅談判成功,

各國將增加對美採購和投資

川普又準備大減稅

都是美股的利多

持股水位太低的人趕快拉上來



mikeon88 2025-4-11 21:32


買進SAIC 88@113.7美元

跟王一勛桑的單,謝謝


買進CAT 35@289美元

跟eva桑的單,謝謝


買進QQQ 45@445.6美元(2單位2萬美金)

買進VOO 42@480.8美元(2單位2萬美金)

Angel520桑的單,謝謝

找不到標的改買ETF


鑒於去年高點需要減碼時我的持股都還便宜

以致不知從何下手只好平均賣20%

100多檔股票平均賣20%是件大工程

所以未來準備讓指數型ETF占持股比例15%

以便在高點緊急賣股時直接砍掉ETF

我講過持股最多賣1/3


ETF的買賣只會在GDP低高點為之

不會採定期定額因為績效會少27%(參見講稿19)


指數型ETF占持股比例15%一事

可能在2GDP循環最快5年達成

若有便宜的好公司仍會選擇個股優先


買指數型ETF的原因是

在股市未跌下來之前

投資人一直吵著高股息ETF績效不如指數型

跌下來了才發現高股息ETF打敗大盤

我們在GDP高點就會把ETF賣掉

所以選擇指數型ETF




mikeon88 2025-4-14 9:04


賣出全家 3@195.5

買進00646標普 9@54.75

買進00662那指 6@78.75

看好美股而這筆錢又不願匯到美國


提領現金為生活費

現金及本金各減2,644,204



mikeon88 2025-4-15 5:53


加碼VOO 72@491美元

加碼QQQ 77@455美元

持股100%



mikeon88 2025-4-23 7:05


昨晚我的美股淨值漲了3%

今年底巴班又將大豐收

市場恐慌時只有我們買滿

看理財雜誌網紅的人現在還不敢買

跑短線看技術分析的這兩個月被巴來巴去

玩槓桿的應該都破產了


我們買滿,別人不敢買

一來一往績效會拉開差距一騎絕塵



宏比特 2025-4-23 9:11


股災還是這個月才剛發生的事,大家正在餘悸猶存,

時卻反而要一下子把持股比例拉到100%

這種操作對一般人來說真的太困難,

有巴班的理念和方法是辦不到的。



Pinkdavid 2025-4-23 10:23


宏比特桑說的不錯,

群組有在買股票的親友把川普暫停關稅的

90天視為逃命波,

都已出場或準備分批出場,

而我們卻進場還買滿。

還有一些現金原本打算慢慢買,

看到Mike桑持股從92%一下子就拉滿,

當下真的有被嚇到。



mikeon88 2025-4-25 9:08


股票買滿的同學可以去休長假了

等川普卸任再回來



宏比特 2025-4-25 10:12


之前老師通常建議買滿的同學去休假,

等明年第X季再回來...

這次老師說可以等川普卸任再回來,

川普要卸任還要好幾年...

感覺這次是很不得了的大多頭行情 !



mikeon88 25 4 2025 - 22:25


這只是講話邏輯上下句連貫而已。

我看到各國將大舉增加對美國採購和投資

+ 大減稅

= 美國GDP成長率可望倍增

= 美國股市即將大漲。

+ 這些事情將在川普任內發生

= 提醒大家買滿抱到川普卸任。

既然看好美股大漲

= 不致大起大落

= 拉回不會太深 

只要把自己講的話上一句意思記清楚

自然就會接到下一句,得出我的結論



mikeon88 2025-5-1 10:10


報稅完成




mikeon88 2025-5-1 21:31


拿新配股息買ETF

加碼 VOO 4@515.1 美元

加碼 QQQ 4@483.5美元



Masonliu 2025-5-29 16:19


114年第1季經濟成長率saar為7.25%,yoy為5.48%;預測114年成長3.10%




mikeon88 2025-5-29 21:08


若本波GDP低點在3Q

而指數低點可能提前一季出現

則4/8的低點不排除就是最低點

我們巴班美股績效以美金計價早就創新高了



mikeon88 2025-6-4 21:42


加碼UHS 13191.3美元

加碼WFC 21@77.7美元





若不計匯差績效早就創新高


獲利:

2025/5  -1,416,939

2025/1-5  242,015


總獲利:

2024/12/31  47,590,088 

2025/4/30  49,249,042










2013 mikeon持股大公開

2014 寬廣的護城河

2015 喜歡買杜邦公式說會倒的公司

2016 猜漲跌不如控制好持股比例

2017 買了一堆醫藥股

2018 投資績效正確算法 XIRR

2019 成為有錢人最重要步驟

2020 3-5年一次股災

2021 GDP高點修剪果樹

2022 戰爭、升息、不景氣

2023 銀行擠兌、AI

2024 不買AI股績效照樣很好

2025 買滿抱到川普卸任