From: w8755
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2010 1:30 PM
吉和因擔任公司勞工退休準備金監督委員會的勞方代表，
此次開會時，會議中有同仁詢問定期定額買中鋼，
故吉和做了中鋼範例給大家
......
請 Michael 協助檢視檔案是否有錯?
From: mikeon
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2010 2:56 PM
既然已經知道GDP理論，也會算貴俗價，
抓得到高低點，為何還要定期定額 ?
定期定額只能得到中等績效
參閱：定期定額只對一半
2010年2月26日 星期五
请允许我向洪老师致敬
From: hemingjiugao
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2010 1:34 PM
我是大陆人，
看到您的书《巴菲特选股魔法》，真有相见恨晚之感。
当然，要想见到您，恐怕还是有点难度。
不知您有没有博客呢？
那样我就可以实时跟随您的思想不断学习不断进步啦！
《伯克夏年报》大陆没有很好的译本，读起来艰涩无趣。
我不知道台湾港台有没有好点的译本可供阅读，
能否做些推荐，不胜感谢之至！或者电子书也好啊。
洪老师后来有一本卡通版的书我也买了，
其出版恐非您的本意吧。
但如果《巴菲特选股魔法》有第二版的话，
务请通知学生及时拜读为快！
From: yang yun
Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2010 6:12 PM
我读了几遍您的“巴菲特选股魔法书”。
可惜去年底才看到，早点读到就好了。
现在如你所教，开始啃巴菲特的股东信了。
我对您的“盈再表”很感兴趣，
因为它可以解答企业是否有足够造血功能的问题，
这点巴大有点含糊，您点明了。
但我比较苯，对其原理还不是很明了，
还有您为什么要用连续四年的净利加总，
而不是用第四年的净利减去第一年的
（很弱智的问题，见笑了）
但在大陆上不了您的课，所以想请问您，
怎样才能获得您的这个利器呢？谢谢!
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2010 1:34 PM
我是大陆人，
看到您的书《巴菲特选股魔法》，真有相见恨晚之感。
当然，要想见到您，恐怕还是有点难度。
不知您有没有博客呢？
那样我就可以实时跟随您的思想不断学习不断进步啦！
《伯克夏年报》大陆没有很好的译本，读起来艰涩无趣。
我不知道台湾港台有没有好点的译本可供阅读，
能否做些推荐，不胜感谢之至！或者电子书也好啊。
洪老师后来有一本卡通版的书我也买了，
其出版恐非您的本意吧。
但如果《巴菲特选股魔法》有第二版的话，
务请通知学生及时拜读为快！
From: yang yun
Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2010 6:12 PM
我读了几遍您的“巴菲特选股魔法书”。
可惜去年底才看到，早点读到就好了。
现在如你所教，开始啃巴菲特的股东信了。
我对您的“盈再表”很感兴趣，
因为它可以解答企业是否有足够造血功能的问题，
这点巴大有点含糊，您点明了。
但我比较苯，对其原理还不是很明了，
还有您为什么要用连续四年的净利加总，
而不是用第四年的净利减去第一年的
（很弱智的问题，见笑了）
但在大陆上不了您的课，所以想请问您，
怎样才能获得您的这个利器呢？谢谢!
2010年2月23日 星期二
低點可能提前一季到4Q10出現
From: Michael_Shih
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 1:54 PM
我記得Mike桑都會在股市趨勢變化之前
刻意安排同學會
照GDP理論，2011年Q1才是變化點
同學會也好像應該在2010年Q4
但今年Mike桑 安排在7或8月
是否有可能想要告訴同學們
Q4可能就會是股市趨勢變化點?
From: mikeon
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 2:17 PM
是的，這次股市的低點可能提前一季到4Q10
根據主計處最新的預測，
4Q09跟1Q10的GDP年增率分別是9.22%與9.24%，很接近
這麼接近也可從這一陣子的股價表現得到佐證，
很多股票的高點是出現在去年12月，而非今年1月
所以很可能這次的低點將提前一季到4Q10
巴菲特班同學會都安排在股市的轉折前舉行
用心良苦吶
記得來參加同學會
參閱：高點在1Q10，減碼一半了
找到對的方法，跟著照做
簽了ECFA、MOU、TIFA、#$%^&^!之後
GDP高點時，須賣出的股票
GDP理論的疑問
當GDP低點出現，個股卻仍不便宜
只要在GDP高點減碼下來，管它什麼股災 !!
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 1:54 PM
我記得Mike桑都會在股市趨勢變化之前
刻意安排同學會
照GDP理論，2011年Q1才是變化點
同學會也好像應該在2010年Q4
但今年Mike桑 安排在7或8月
是否有可能想要告訴同學們
Q4可能就會是股市趨勢變化點?
From: mikeon
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 2:17 PM
是的，這次股市的低點可能提前一季到4Q10
根據主計處最新的預測，
4Q09跟1Q10的GDP年增率分別是9.22%與9.24%，很接近
這麼接近也可從這一陣子的股價表現得到佐證，
很多股票的高點是出現在去年12月，而非今年1月
所以很可能這次的低點將提前一季到4Q10
巴菲特班同學會都安排在股市的轉折前舉行
用心良苦吶
記得來參加同學會
參閱：高點在1Q10，減碼一半了
找到對的方法，跟著照做
簽了ECFA、MOU、TIFA、#$%^&^!之後
GDP高點時，須賣出的股票
GDP理論的疑問
當GDP低點出現，個股卻仍不便宜
只要在GDP高點減碼下來，管它什麼股災 !!
2010年2月21日 星期日
統一超的股價一直不便宜
From: mikeon
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 9:58 AM
統一超的股價一直不便宜，
只有在2003年SARS期間跌到便宜價
從還原股價來看，
不等到便宜就買的報酬率是不高的
可是在SARS低點的報酬率竟高達211%(=120.3/38.7-1)，
換算成年複利18%，跟預期報酬率估的14%相當
顯見我們算的預期報酬率是很重要的
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 9:58 AM
統一超的股價一直不便宜，
只有在2003年SARS期間跌到便宜價
從還原股價來看，
不等到便宜就買的報酬率是不高的
可是在SARS低點的報酬率竟高達211%(=120.3/38.7-1)，
換算成年複利18%，跟預期報酬率估的14%相當
顯見我們算的預期報酬率是很重要的
買法拍屋會不會獲利比股票還快 ?
From: CY
Sent: Saturday, February 20, 2010 10:07 AM
買法拍屋會不會獲利比股票還快 ?
From: 謝 達昌
Sent: Saturday, February 20, 2010 1:33 PM
其實你的問題也可以變成
「買樂透會不會獲利比股票還快」
前題是你有把握買對。
「用便宜價格，買進你能理解的好標的物」，
可以運用在法拍屋、黃金、字畫、名酒...任何投資上。
Sent: Saturday, February 20, 2010 10:07 AM
買法拍屋會不會獲利比股票還快 ?
From: 謝 達昌
Sent: Saturday, February 20, 2010 1:33 PM
其實你的問題也可以變成
「買樂透會不會獲利比股票還快」
前題是你有把握買對。
「用便宜價格，買進你能理解的好標的物」，
可以運用在法拍屋、黃金、字畫、名酒...任何投資上。
2010年2月17日 星期三
2010年2月16日 星期二
4Q09巴菲特減碼PG、JNJ，買BDX
From: mikeon
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:14 AM
4Q09巴菲特減碼PG、JNJ，為了籌錢併購鐵路公司BNI
這實在令人不解，
PG、JNJ的ROE很好，股價也仍便宜
新加碼BDX、IRM
BDX看來還不錯，IRM則不怎麼樣
「Becton 、Dickinson and Co. 製造並銷售健康保健專用、醫學研究及一般大眾使用的設備、用品及系統。該公司的經營業務由三個全球業務部分組成：Medical Systems（醫療系統）, Biosciences（生物科學），及Preanalytical Solutions（預先分析技術﹞。」 ...Quote123
「Iron Mountain Incorporated 是世界最大的存儲和資訊管理服務公司之一。該公司是一個國際化全方位存儲和資訊管理及相關服務的提供商, 幫助顧客實施外包存儲管理。Iron Mountain 擁有多元化的用戶，包括超過半數的Fortune 500 企業以及爲數衆多的商業、法律、銀行醫療保健、會計、保險、娛樂和政府組織。」...Quote123
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Slashes Oil, P&G, J&J StakesPublished: Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010 4:54 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway dramatically cut its stakes last fall in two of the nation's biggest oil companies.
It also significantly reduced its holdings of Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.
The sales were probably designed to help pay for Berkshire's enormous $26 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe. That deal closed last Friday.
In its fourth quarter portfolio snapshot just filed with the SEC, Berkshire reports holding 37.7 million shares of ConocoPhillips [COP 49.95 1.28 (+2.63%) ] as of December 31, 2009.
That's down 19.7 million shares, or 34.3 percent, from Berkshire's holdings as of September 30.
Berkshire's stake in ExxonMobil [XOM 66.29 1.49 (+2.3%) ] fell even more on a percentage basis, dropping 67 percent to 421,800 shares as of Dec 31. Berkshire first reported holding about 854-thousand shares at the end of last year's second quarter. It then added another 422-thousand shares in the third quarter for a total of almost 1.3 million shares. Now only those shares added in Q3 remain as of the end of Q4.
Another significant decline: Johnson and Johnson [JNJ 63.62 0.90 (+1.43%) ]. Berkshire's holdings fell 26.5 percent, or 9.8 million shares, to 27.1 million shares. That's roughly the same amount Berkshire held at the end of 2008, following a big sale that fall to help finance Buffett's credit-crisis investments in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Berkshire cut its Procter and Gamble [PG 62.79 1.03 (+1.67%) ] holdings by 8.8 million shares, or 9.1 percent, to 87.5 million shares.
Berkshire also reports smaller holdings as of December 31 vs September 30 for:
Carmax: 8 million shares, down 1 million from 9 million (-11.1%)
Gannett: 2.2 million shares, down 1.2 million from 3.4 million (-36.1%)
Ingersoll-Rand: 5.6 million shares, down 2.2 million from 7.8 million (-27.6%)
SunTrust Banks: 2.4 million shares, down 0.7 million from 3.1 million (-22.1%)
United Health Group: 1.2 million shares, down 2.2 million from 3.4 million (-65.4%)Berkshire's sales of its entire holdings of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern had been reported by Buffett himself in an interview with Charlie Rose just after the BNSF deal was announced.
It wasn't just selling. We did see some increases, including a few enormous percentage jumps.
Becton Dickinson: 1.5 million shares, up 0.3 million from 1.2 million (+25.0%)
Iron Mountain: 7.0 million shares, up 3.6 million from 3.4 million (+107.6%)
Republic Services: 8.3 million shares, up 4.7 million from 3.6 million (+128.7%)
Wal-Mart Stores: 39.0 million shares, up 1.2 million from 37.8 million (+3.2%)
Wells Fargo: 320.1 million shares, up 6.7 million from 313.4 million (+2.1%)Total market value of Berkshire's reported holdings as of December 31: $57.9 billion, up $1.4 billion from $56.5 billion as of September 30. That's an increase of 2.4 percent.
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:14 AM
4Q09巴菲特減碼PG、JNJ，為了籌錢併購鐵路公司BNI
這實在令人不解，
PG、JNJ的ROE很好，股價也仍便宜
新加碼BDX、IRM
BDX看來還不錯，IRM則不怎麼樣
「Becton 、Dickinson and Co. 製造並銷售健康保健專用、醫學研究及一般大眾使用的設備、用品及系統。該公司的經營業務由三個全球業務部分組成：Medical Systems（醫療系統）, Biosciences（生物科學），及Preanalytical Solutions（預先分析技術﹞。」 ...Quote123
「Iron Mountain Incorporated 是世界最大的存儲和資訊管理服務公司之一。該公司是一個國際化全方位存儲和資訊管理及相關服務的提供商, 幫助顧客實施外包存儲管理。Iron Mountain 擁有多元化的用戶，包括超過半數的Fortune 500 企業以及爲數衆多的商業、法律、銀行醫療保健、會計、保險、娛樂和政府組織。」...Quote123
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Slashes Oil, P&G, J&J StakesPublished: Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010 4:54 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway dramatically cut its stakes last fall in two of the nation's biggest oil companies.
It also significantly reduced its holdings of Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.
The sales were probably designed to help pay for Berkshire's enormous $26 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe. That deal closed last Friday.
In its fourth quarter portfolio snapshot just filed with the SEC, Berkshire reports holding 37.7 million shares of ConocoPhillips [COP 49.95 1.28 (+2.63%) ] as of December 31, 2009.
That's down 19.7 million shares, or 34.3 percent, from Berkshire's holdings as of September 30.
Berkshire's stake in ExxonMobil [XOM 66.29 1.49 (+2.3%) ] fell even more on a percentage basis, dropping 67 percent to 421,800 shares as of Dec 31. Berkshire first reported holding about 854-thousand shares at the end of last year's second quarter. It then added another 422-thousand shares in the third quarter for a total of almost 1.3 million shares. Now only those shares added in Q3 remain as of the end of Q4.
Another significant decline: Johnson and Johnson [JNJ 63.62 0.90 (+1.43%) ]. Berkshire's holdings fell 26.5 percent, or 9.8 million shares, to 27.1 million shares. That's roughly the same amount Berkshire held at the end of 2008, following a big sale that fall to help finance Buffett's credit-crisis investments in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Berkshire cut its Procter and Gamble [PG 62.79 1.03 (+1.67%) ] holdings by 8.8 million shares, or 9.1 percent, to 87.5 million shares.
Berkshire also reports smaller holdings as of December 31 vs September 30 for:
Carmax: 8 million shares, down 1 million from 9 million (-11.1%)
Gannett: 2.2 million shares, down 1.2 million from 3.4 million (-36.1%)
Ingersoll-Rand: 5.6 million shares, down 2.2 million from 7.8 million (-27.6%)
SunTrust Banks: 2.4 million shares, down 0.7 million from 3.1 million (-22.1%)
United Health Group: 1.2 million shares, down 2.2 million from 3.4 million (-65.4%)Berkshire's sales of its entire holdings of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern had been reported by Buffett himself in an interview with Charlie Rose just after the BNSF deal was announced.
It wasn't just selling. We did see some increases, including a few enormous percentage jumps.
Becton Dickinson: 1.5 million shares, up 0.3 million from 1.2 million (+25.0%)
Iron Mountain: 7.0 million shares, up 3.6 million from 3.4 million (+107.6%)
Republic Services: 8.3 million shares, up 4.7 million from 3.6 million (+128.7%)
Wal-Mart Stores: 39.0 million shares, up 1.2 million from 37.8 million (+3.2%)
Wells Fargo: 320.1 million shares, up 6.7 million from 313.4 million (+2.1%)Total market value of Berkshire's reported holdings as of December 31: $57.9 billion, up $1.4 billion from $56.5 billion as of September 30. That's an increase of 2.4 percent.
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