這就是問題所在：高roe+低配息→淨值快速累積
→以固定roe計算未來獲利將高速成長
正新仍在淑價的假設前提是：
８年後的eps是今年的3倍--17.7元，
且8年後能以12倍P/E的212元賣掉！
如將配息率改為90％，淑價將變為48.8元.
mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-21 11:23
正新這一波從74元漲上來，
若把便宜價改成48元會買不到。
若把便宜價改成48元會買不到。
mikeon88 發表於 2013-11-14 18:13
1. 盈再表的預期配息率抓得比實際配息率還保守。
2. 每季會跟著季報而調整。
3. 如果不同意的話，可以自行調整預期配息率。
mikeon88 發表於 2013-11-15 06:44
XOM配息率不高，20幾%，因買回庫藏股，
盈再表預期配息率抓30%，
算出來預期報酬率19%，
波克夏就買在這個價位，
顯見即便是配息率不高的公司算出來的預期報酬率仍然恰當。
2. 每季會跟著季報而調整。
3. 如果不同意的話，可以自行調整預期配息率。
盈再表預期配息率抓30%，
算出來預期報酬率19%，
波克夏就買在這個價位，
顯見即便是配息率不高的公司算出來的預期報酬率仍然恰當。
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-hathaway-adds-exxon-cuts-conocophillips-2013-11-14?dist=afterbell
Nov. 14, 2013, 5:10 p.m. EST
Berkshire Hathaway adds Exxon, cuts ConocoPhillips
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A +0.71%BRK.B -0.28% took a major stake in Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM +0.73% and cut down on its stake on ConocoPhillips COP -0.17% , according to a SEC filing on Thursday. The conglomerate added about 40 million shares of Exxon and whittled down its ConocoPhillips holdings to about 13.5 million shares from 24 million in the previous reporting period.
Nov. 14, 2013, 5:10 p.m. EST
Berkshire Hathaway adds Exxon, cuts ConocoPhillips
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A +0.71%BRK.B -0.28% took a major stake in Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM +0.73% and cut down on its stake on ConocoPhillips COP -0.17% , according to a SEC filing on Thursday. The conglomerate added about 40 million shares of Exxon and whittled down its ConocoPhillips holdings to about 13.5 million shares from 24 million in the previous reporting period.
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