這2千5百萬的內在價值是怎麼算出來的 ?

From: taifoong
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2008 1:26 PM

罩啊 ! 越來越精采了。好，那再來一個。
1991年報 A few years ago the conventional wisdom held that a newspaper, television or magazine property would forever increase its earnings at 6% or so annually and would do so without the employment of additional capital, for the reason that depreciation charges would roughly match capital expenditures and working capital requirements would be minor. Therefore, reported earnings (before amortization of intangibles) were also freely-distributable earnings, which meant that ownership of a media property could be construed as akin to owning a perpetual annuity set to grow at 6% a year. Say, next, that a discount rate of 10% was used to determine the present value of that earnings stream. One could then calculate that it was appropriate to pay a whopping $25 million for a property with current after-tax earnings of $1 million. (This after-tax multiplier of 25 translates to a multiplier on pre-tax earnings of about 16.)
請用股息折現公式計算這2千5百萬的內在價值是怎麼算出來的 ?


From: mikeon
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2008 7:22 PM

From: Youran Liang
Sent: Sunday, January 25, 2009 12:00 PM

折現率是10%，又每年EPS固定6%的成長，
假設第一年的EPS為1，
則同一年的股息是1/(1+6%)=去年的EPS。
依照股息折現公式 P=D(1+G)/(K-G)，
P為現值，D為當年度股息，G為股息成長率，
K為折現率（預計報酬），
現值=[1/(1+6%)](1+6%)/(10%-6%)=25，
所以每年EPS會以6%成長的公司，
如果我們以25倍本益比購買，
則可以期待最終能獲得10%的年複利報酬率。

另外一個例子，
假設EPS及股息都為1，且成長率是0%，
則依照股息折現公式 現值=1(1+0%)/(10%-0)=10，
所以每年EPS皆大致固定的公司，
如果我們以10倍本益比購買，
則可以期待最終能獲得10%的年複利報酬率。