2020年12月24日 星期四

講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)

2004波克夏年報

1.大型股(每年稅前淨利至少7千5百萬美元) 

2.展現一致的獲利能力 

(Demonstrated consistent earning power)

(我們對未來的計畫或具轉機的公司沒興趣) 

3.高ROE且低負債

4.良好的經營團隊(我們不提供管理人員) 

5.簡單的企業(若牽涉到太多高科技，則超出我們的理解範圍) 

6.出價(在價格未確定前，請勿浪費雙方太多時間) 


我們將儘快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)。


Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Annual Report

We are eager to hear from principals or their representatives about businesses that meet all of the following criteria:

(1) Large purchases (at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units),

(2) Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),

(3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,

(4) Management in place (we can’t supply it),

(5) Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),

(6) An offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily,

about a transaction when price is unknown).


We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.


來看一下巴菲特怎麼選股，祂的選股原則就這6點，

只要根據這6點去選股就可以跟祂一樣賺到大錢，

巴六點是全世界最偉大的一篇文獻。


In exploring Mr. Buffett's method for selecting stocks, it is clear that he relies on a set of six criteria. Adhering to these principles can lead to substantial financial gains similar to those achieved by Mr. Buffett. The 'Buffett Six Criteria' is regarded as a highly valuable tool for choosing stocks.


第一點選股原則：買大型股，稅前淨利至少7,500萬美金


這一點就跟我們平常的想法不一樣，

我們小散戶不喜歡買大型股，因股性牛皮不會漲。

我們喜歡買小型股，以為籌碼少、易炒作。

小型股的確是易炒作，問題是誰被炒作？

飆股在還沒有飆上去之前誰知道會飆？

等到飆上去了想追又不敢追，心裡癢癢的，

下定決心追上去往往高興不了幾天就跌下來而被套牢，

每天過著提心吊膽的日子，

小型股易炒作，是我們被人家炒作。


The first criteria: Large purchases, at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings


This is different from our usual thinking. As retail investors, we do not favor buying large cap stocks because of their steady price fluctuations. We prefer small-cap stocks because we think they have less capital and are easier to speculate. While it is true that small-cap stocks are easier to speculate, the question is who is being taken advantage of? Who knows which stocks will surge before they actually do? When the stocks surge and we want to follow but dare not, it's itching. Determined to catch up, prices often fall and we get trapped after a few days of excitement. We live a life full of fear every day. Small-cap stocks are easy to speculate, but it is we who are being speculated.


這裡提到大型股，老巴看的是公司獲利，

可是一般在定義大型股或小型卻是看股本，

這兩種定義何者有道理？

買股票是希望它來幫我們賺錢，

能夠賺到大錢的才是大公司，

賺不了錢股本大何用！

看獲利才有道理。


Here when referring to large stocks, Mr. Buffett focuses on the company's profitability, while the distinction between large and small stocks is typically based on market capitalization. Which of these two criteria is more meaningful? As investors, we buy stocks with the aim of generating profit and only those that can generate substantial profits can be considered big companies. If a company is not profitable, then having a large market capitalization is of no value. Checking for profitability is therefore the logical thing to do.



第二點選股原則：要展現過一致的獲利能力


很多人跟巴菲特報明牌，

祂會要求先看一下那家公司過去5年的財報。

什麼公司祂會有興趣？

不僅今年度業績要好，過去5年的獲利也要很穩定。

如果跟祂報勝華、元太、威盛這3家公司雖然過去的獲利很糟糕，

可是未來將有轉機，會有爆發力，

這種鬼故事祂是不會相信的。


The second criteria: Demonstrated consistent earning power


People recommend acquisition targets to Buffett, who then asks to see the financial reports of the company for the past five years. For a company to catch his attention, it must demonstrate not only strong earnings this year, but also a steady performance over the past five years. Claims of future turnarounds and explosive growth potential for companies such as Wintek (2384.TW), E Ink (8069.TW) and VIA Technologies (2388.TW), which have shown poor profits in the past, are unlikely to persuade him.


巴菲特提到「我們對未來的計劃沒興趣」，

什麼是未來計劃？就是公司的獲利預估。

分析師根據未來擴產計劃估出公司的獲利，

老巴竟沒興趣看，這一點讓我非常傷心，

當分析師花很多時間估的數字，想不到祂沒有興趣看！


Mr. Buffett stated that "future projections are of no interest to us" These future projections refer to the profit projections made for the company. Analysts estimate the company's profits based on its expansion plans. It can be discouraging to realize that Mr. Buffett does not have any interest in these projections. As a former analyst, I put in a significant amount of time creating these projections, only to find that Mr. Buffett does not consider them relevant.



第三點原則：高ROE而且要低負債


何為ROE？ 後面會解釋，

多高才是高ROE？ 指15%以上。

我們把一年定存利率固定在6.7%作為比較基礎，這是正常時期的利率，

當然現在利率已不到1%，因長期不景氣的結果。

一旦經濟恢復正常，合理的狀況利率應回升到6.7%。


The third criteria: Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt


What is ROE ? I will explain later.

An ROE higher than 15% is considered high. The one-year time deposit interest rate, which serves as a benchmark for evaluation, is set at 6.7% in normal economic times. However, due to the prolonged recession, current interest rates are lower than 1%. It is expected that interest rates will rise to 6.7% once the economy recovers."


一家公司的獲利能力好，指它的ROE比正常時期定存利率6.7%

好 1 倍以上才叫好，所以高ROE是15%以上。


A company's good profitability can be indicated by an ROE that is two times higher than the normal deposit rate of 6.7%. When this occurs, the ROE is considered high if it exceeds 15%.



第四點原則：要有良好的經營團隊，我們不提供管理人員


老巴管理好幾兆台幣的資產，

2017年波克夏帳上現金3兆台幣(1,000億美金)，

台灣中央政府歲出也才2兆，所謂富可敵國不過如此。

祂的錢70%在做併購，另外30%才在市場上買股票，

一般在作併購，都派自己人員去進駐，把公司整頓好，

可是巴菲特不一樣的地方則是讓他們自己去管理自己。


The fourth criteria: Management in place (we can’t supply it)


Mr. Buffett oversees several trillion Taiwanese dollars worth of assets. In 2017, Berkshire Hathaway had a total cash of NT$3 trillion (equivalent to US$100 billion), which was significantly more than the Taiwanese government's annual expenditure of NT$2 trillion, earning Mr. Buffett the title of being "richer than the country."


Of Mr. Buffett's funds, around 70% are allocated for mergers and acquisitions, while the remaining 30% are invested in stocks. While many companies send their own personnel to reorganize target companies during a merger, Mr. Buffett adopts a unique approach by allowing the companies he acquires to manage themselves.


看過一本書叫「巴菲特的CEO」，

作者訪問被祂併購公司的CEO，

問他們當初巴菲特是怎麼來談的？

那些CEO都說其實當初老巴問的問題都很簡單，

只是問一些財報上的數字，一年賺多少錢？

多少存貨？多少應收帳款？

最後老巴會問CEO一句話「有沒有興趣留下來幫我工作？」

若CEO點頭祂就把公司買下來，

之後好幾年不曾去看過那家公司，頂多看看每季財報。


I recently read a book named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.



關於這一點，我也有做到，

我買了一張台積電也是讓他自己管理自己，

並沒有把張忠謀叫來問「你現在在幹嘛？」


Concerning this, I have taken a similar approach. I acquired a share of TSMC and allowed it to operate autonomously, without summoning CEO Morris Chang to inquire, "What are you doing now?"


第五點原則：簡單的企業，

牽涉太多的高科技將超出我們的理解範圍


巴菲特比較少買電子股，並非祂不了解電子股，

而是電子股不符合祂的選股原則，

因為電子業的產品都會變，一旦變了之後公司的獲利就變了樣。

光碟片中環跟錸德在CD-R時代非常賺錢，

DVD之後竟然虧損累累。


The fifth criteria: Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it)


Buffett invests less in high-tech stocks, not because he lacks understanding of the industry, but because they do not align with his principles for stock selection. The constant changes in the technology industry often result in fluctuations in company profits. For example, companies like CMC (2323.TW) and Riteck (2349.TW) were profitable during the CD-R era, but suffered significant losses after the introduction of DVD technology.


這幾年波克夏在開股東大會台灣財經媒體也會派記者去參加，

2008年記者訪問到巴菲特，問祂有無興趣投資台灣？

老巴說台灣的公司都太小不夠他買。

記者又問有無看好什麼公司？

老巴回「台灣的半導體製造還不錯！」

聽祂這樣講就知道在指哪家公司？

當然是台積電！絕對不是聯電，

若要我們去挑一家台灣最具有國際競爭力的公司，

我們也會挑台積電。

由此可知巴菲特研究過台灣，而且懂電子，才會一講就講到重點！


Taiwan's financial media have sent reporters to Berkshire's shareholder meetings in recent years. In 2008, a reporter interviewed Buffett and asked about his interest in investing in Taiwan. Buffett stated that the size of Taiwanese companies was too small for him. The reporter then asked if there was a promising company, to which Buffett replied that Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing companies are excellent. When asked for a specific company, it is evident that he was referring to TSMC, not UMC (2303.TW). If we were to choose the most internationally competitive company in Taiwan, our choice would also be TSMC. This demonstrates that Mr. Buffett has thoroughly researched the Taiwan market and possesses a strong understanding of high-tech stocks. He is concise and to the point!


若有經久不變的電子公司老巴仍然會買，

從2011年開始巴菲特就大買IBM，買超過8%股份，成為最大股東。

IBM這幾年轉型從一個純粹的電腦硬體製造商，

變成系統整合商，硬體跟軟體全包。

一家公司的電腦系統，像人事、薪資、倉儲系統

整個交給IBM去設計的話，它的電腦都將從此全部用IBM的，

因系統非常複雜，不可能說換就換。

這樣一轉型經久不變的特質就出來了，因此巴菲特大買IBM。

IBM的ROE非常高，獲利還算穩定，

老巴買在180元美金，預期報酬率29%，買得很便宜。


If a high-tech company has a strong, long-lasting presence, Mr. Buffett may invest in it. This is demonstrated by his ownership of over 8% of IBM's shares since 2011, making him the largest shareholder. In recent years, IBM has transformed from a computer hardware manufacturer to a system integrator, providing both hardware and software solutions. When a company outsources its computer systems, such as personnel, salaries, and storage systems, to IBM, it becomes locked into using IBM's systems due to the complexity of the systems. This gives IBM a durable advantage and was a factor in Mr. Buffett's decision to invest. IBM has a high ROE and stable profits, and Mr. Buffett bought its shares for $180 with an expected return of 29%, which he considered a great value.



從2017年開始老巴賣光IBM持股，原因是在雲端業務競爭力不強。

近幾年遲不見轉機，股價表現疲弱，

在績效壓力下才賣掉。


Since 2017, Mr. Buffett has sold his IBM shares due to the underperformance of the company's cloud computing business. The company's stock price has been weak and its performance has not significantly improved in recent years, leading to pressure from investment performance, and ultimately resulting in Mr. Buffett's decision to sell.


第六點原則是要出價，在價格還沒有確定之前

不要浪費大家太多時間。


巴菲特為什麼要訂這個條款？

因為併購需要花長時間談判，

賣方見買方越來越有興趣往往暗地裡把售價抬高，

為了避免哄抬，要求先把售價提出來，祂會殺價的。


The sixth criteria: an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown)


Mr. Buffett established this clause to prevent high bidding during M&A negotiations, which can take a long time. When the seller senses the buyer's increased interest in the transaction, they often raise the price. To avoid this, he wants the seller to initiate the offer and engage in bargaining.


以上6點原則就是巴菲特的選股原則，

看了以上6點，請問同學哪一點的印象最深刻？


The above six criteria are Buffett's principles for selecting stocks. Which of these criteria do you find most impressive?


讓我印象最深刻的是第六點底下那一點

「我們將盡快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)」

這點是最初在看巴菲特傳記覺得最不可思議的一點。

我是分析師，一家公司若完全沒有看過需花許多時間研究，

要先把公司的財報和相關產業報告拿出來看一下，

再到公司拜訪個2次以上，

才能確定這家公司好還是不好？

可是巴菲特居然稱不用5分鐘就可以答覆是否感興趣，

令人不可思議。


What caught my attention the most was the following statement under the sixth criterion: “We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.” This was one of the most remarkable things I came across while reading about Buffett. Being an analyst, researching a new company can be a tedious task that requires going through financial reports, industry reports, and making multiple visits to the company. But according to Mr. Buffett, he can make a decision on whether he's interested in investing in a company within five minutes. It's truly remarkable.


祂說5分鐘是指有興趣來談，整個流程是這樣：

有人跟祂推薦某家公司，祂會要求看公司過去5年財報，

5分鐘之後即會表明有沒有興趣來談，

至於買或不買沒那麼快，還需要經過一段時間談判。


He stated that the five minutes refer to the time it takes for him to reply on his interest in delving deeper. The process goes like this: if someone recommends a company to him, he will ask for the last five years of the company's financial reports. If he's interested, he'll respond within five minutes. However, the act of purchasing may not be as swift as it requires time for negotiation.



覺得不可思議是巴菲特沒養任何分析師，

所有投資的案子都是祂一個人在看。

其他投資大師養一堆分析師幫忙過濾案子，

1994年我在怡富證券，曾在香港怡和酒店

跟索羅斯

的分析師一起吃早餐，跟他介紹台灣的IC產業。

老巴沒養分析師，所有案子都祂一人在看，居然不用5分鐘。


The above six criteria are Buffett's principles for selecting stocks. Which of these criteria do you find most impressive?


I am amazed that Mr. Buffett doesn't have any analysts working for him. He personally evaluates all investment opportunities, while many other fund managers rely on a team of analysts to help them research. In 1994, while I was working at Jardine Fleming Securities, I had the chance to have a working breakfast at the Mandarin Hotel in Hong Kong with Soro's analyst and presented information about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry. Unlike other fund managers, Mr. Buffett does not have an analyst. He does his own research and doesn't need five minutes to make a decision.


而且巴菲特投資的金額都很大，

祂買的那家鐵路公司花了440億美金，台幣1.3兆，

這麼大一筆錢若交給我們去投資，請問要想多久？

不要說5分鐘，一年半載都還下不了手。


And Buffett's investments are also very significant. The railway company he acquired cost US$440 million, or NT$1.3 trillion. If we were given such a large amount for investment, how long would we take to decide? It wouldn't be as quick as five minutes, it would take us a year and a half to make a final decision.


現在讓我覺得不可思議的是為什麼要5分鐘這麼久！

有了盈再表根本不用5分鐘，只要15秒內就可以完成。

底下這張表就是盈再表，

把股票代號輸入到左上角1723這一個格，

按Enter就會把資料抓下來，整個過程15秒內完成。

右上角若出現「合格」就差不多。


What puzzles me now is why it takes so long to 5 minutes. With the help of On's table, the process of determining interest in a company takes only 15 seconds, not five minutes. The table is called On's table. To use it, simply enter the stock code into cell 1723 in the top left corner, press enter to retrieve the data, and the whole process will be completed within 15 seconds. A stock is considered qualified if "OK" appears in the top right corner.



盈再表下載在討論區置頂處，有Excel版和網頁版。

Excel版盈再表只能在電腦Windows11系統底下跑，

Office請升級到2010以後，Office365可用，Open Office 不行 !!

打開Excel版盈再表，上方出現「啟用內容」點它即可使用。


The On’s table download is pinned at the top of the discussion forum. There are both Excel and web versions available.

The Excel version of the On’s table can only run on a computer with the Windows 11 system. Please upgrade Office to 2010 or later; Office 365 is supported, but Open Office is not!

When you open the Excel version of the On’s table, click on 'Enable Content' at the top to use it."



拿到盈再表之後同學將不會抱怨為何要學費這麼高 ，

有同學說「光盈再表的價值至少就值學費了」

一聽原以為他在稱讚我，

仔細一想才發現不對，他在罵我，

因盈再表的價值超過學費，

那不表示我上這堂課沒有價值？


After getting On’s table, you will not complain about why tuition is so high.

Some students said, "The value of On’s table is at least worth tuition."

I thought he was complimenting me.

After thinking it twice, I realized that he mocks me.

Since value of On's table exceeds tuition, does this mean that my lectures have no added value ?


記者問巴菲特「在你的投資準則哪一點最重要？」

老巴說「可持續的競爭力和良好的經營團隊最重要！」

記者又問「如何評估經營團隊？」

老巴回「我主要看過去的紀錄，發現跟打棒球不同，

經理人年紀越大越好。」(引自Business Wire 2006年2月) 

巴菲特說他最喜歡買的公司是創辦人準備退休，

想把股票換成鈔票，好好去享受人生。

張忠謀應該打通電話給巴菲特，把公司賣給祂會比較好。


A reporter asked Mr. Buffett "What is the most important point in your investment criteria ?"

Mr. Buffett said, "Sustainable competitiveness and a good management team are the most important !

The reporter asked "How to evaluate the management team ?"

Mr. Buffett replied, "I mainly focused on the past records and found that it is different from playing baseball.

The older the manager, the better. '' (quoted from Business Wire, February 2006)

Buffett said his favorite company is a founder who is about to retire and plans to exchange stocks for money and enjoy life.

Morris Chang should call Buffett and sell TSMC to him.



巴菲特喜歡買老的公司，這一點跟我們的想法又不一樣。

我們小散戶喜歡買新上市櫃股票，以為有蜜月期股價會飆，

可是蜜月期之後下場都沒有很好。


Mr. Buffett has a preference for buying well-established companies, which is different from the common perception. Retail investors often purchase newly-listed stocks with the hope that the stock prices will rise during the initial excitement period. However, the results are not always positive once the initial excitement phase ends.


其實台股也是一樣，讓人買得放心的公司多半是老公司，

別說傳統產業統一、台塑、巨大是老公司，

即便電子股台達電、台積電也是老公司，

經得起時間考驗的公司才是買得放心的公司。


In fact, the situation is similar in Taiwan's stock market. Companies that are established and have a proven track record are usually more likely to instill confidence in investors. This applies not just to traditional industries like Uni-President (1216.TW), Formosa Plastics (1301.TW), and Giant (9921.TW), but also to electronics companies such as Delta Electrics (2308.TW) and TSMC. The ability to withstand the test of time can bring reassurance to investors.


從以上幾點看來，發現我們選股的角度跟巴菲特不一樣：

我們喜歡買小型股，巴菲特買大型股。

公司的大小我們看的是股本，老巴著重淨利。

公司的獲利我們看預估，老巴則重視過去的紀錄。

我們喜歡買轉機股，老巴強調獲利要維持一致，......。

選股的觀點跟巴菲特不同，

這是為何我們投資會賠錢原因，

因我們跟在股市賺到大錢的人看法相左，

所以要來學巴菲特！


Our stock selection methodology contrasts greatly with Mr. Buffett's approach. As retail investors, we tend to invest in smaller stocks, whereas Mr. Buffett primarily focuses on larger stocks. We determine a company's worth based on its market capitalization, while Mr. Buffett considers its net profit. We look at a company's predicted profits, while Mr. Buffett assesses its historical performance. We are drawn to turnarounds, while Mr. Buffett prioritizes consistent profits. This difference in stock picking philosophy contributes to our underperformance in the market. To improve our success in the stock market, it's important to learn from experienced investors such as Mr. Buffett.



前面的巴六點在告訴我們什麼樣的公司可以長期維持高ROE，

不過祂的文字敘述有點模糊，

把它改寫成我的5點選股原則：

1. 看過去5年ROE是否穩定且大於15%

2. 配得出現金 (盈再率小於80%+配息率大於40%)

3. 不會變的公司

4. 公司要夠大 (淨利大於5億元，上市櫃滿2年)

5. 老闆要有誠信 (董監持股至少10%)


The six criteria mentioned by Mr. Buffett highlight the characteristics of a company that can maintain a high return on equity over a prolonged period. However, his language may be somewhat ambiguous, so I have rephrased it as Michael On's five criteria for stock selection:

1. Check if the return on equity (ROE) has been stable and above 15% over the past 5 years.

2. Look for high dividends, with a profit reinvestment rate below 80% and a dividend payout ratio above 40%.

3. Durable business model

4. Large purchase, including at least NT$500 million in net earnings and a minimum of two years of public listing or over-the-counter trading.

5. Integrity management, specifically by checking if the board of directors holds a minimum of 10% of the company's shares.


1、2、3點是主要條件，一定要遵守。

4、5是次要條件，不遵守沒關係，不過後果要自行負責。


Criteria 1, 2, and 3 are the primary considerations and must be strictly adhered to. Criteria 4 and 5 are secondary and may be taken into account at the discretion of the individual, but one must be aware of the potential consequences of such considerations.


這5點原則不需要背，只要會看就好，因已經寫進盈再表，

都符合會出現「合格」兩個字。

若無「合格」表示有不合格的地方，用紅色字標示。


You don't have to memorize these five criteria, as they are already recorded in On's table. If all the conditions are met, an "OK" will appear. If there is no "OK", it indicates that some of the conditions are not met and will be highlighted in red.



台灣大車隊，在表上的右上角未出現「合格」，

請問是哪裡不合格？哪裡有紅色字？

第一、預期報酬率僅2%，不到15%，15%的才夠便宜。

第二、最近3年的配息率有一年不及40%。

第三、常利沒大於5億元。

第四、上市櫃未滿2年。

這幾點不合格，所以沒出現「合格」。

紅字底下加底線，為方便色弱者辨識，

與紅字同表不合格，而非指負數。


Taiwantaxi (2640.TW) has not met the "OK" criteria in the form, indicating that certain standards have not been achieved. These unmet standards include:

The expected return of 2% is lower than the minimum requirement of 15%.

The payout ratio in the last three years was less than 40% in one year.

The recurring net profit was less than NT$500 million in one year.

It has been less than 2 years since its listing or over-the-counter trading.

Due to these four unsatisfied criteria, the "OK" designation does not appear.


To make it easier for those with weaker color perception, an underline can be added below the red number to clearly indicate that the condition has not been met. This underline is equivalent to the red number, representing a non-compliant condition.


先來看一下第四和第五這兩個條件。

第四點公司要夠大，是呼應巴六點的第一點要買大型股。

公司要夠大，我們有2個條件：

1. 上市櫃要滿2年，

2. 淨利大於5億元。


Let's examine the fourth and fifth criteria. The fourth principle states that the company must be of significant size, which aligns with the first criterion of the six proposed by Buffett for large purchases. To meet this requirement, the company must meet the following conditions:


It must have been listed or traded OTC for a minimum of 2 years.

It must have a net profit exceeding NT$500 million.


上市櫃要滿2年，許多新上市櫃公司剛掛牌時獲利都很好，

可是沒2年即衰退，何故？

這些公司可能是趁獲利最佳時來上市，

或是以往的獲利就不怎麼樣，

為達到上市櫃標準把業績集中入帳，上市之後又恢復原狀。

這種公司很多，關中、益通都是，

益通剛上市時還曾是股王，現在股價不到當時的10分之一，

買到這種股票跟踩到地雷股沒兩樣。


Many IPOs experience a drop in profits two years after going public for several reasons. Some companies may go public during a period of high profits, while others may employ accounting techniques such as window-dressing to meet listing criteria, only to revert to their previous state afterwards. Grand Hall (8941.TW) and E-Ton (3452.TW) are among the companies that fall into this category.


When it first listed, E-Ton was a stock market leader with a high stock price. Now, its stock price has fallen to less than a tenth of what it was then. Investing in this stock is similar to taking a gamble on a potentially hazardous security.


這種公司從財報看不出來，因它的業績是真的，不是假的。

如何預防？很簡單，

先晾在旁邊，等上市櫃滿2年之後再來看它就可以。


These types of companies are not easily recognizable from their financial reports, as the profit records are authentic, not false. To prevent this, the solution is simple: wait for two years after its listing before evaluating it as a potential investment.


第二個條件淨利大於5億元的公司才買，

太小的公司很容易夭折，建議「轉大人」再買。

巴菲特訂稅前淨利7,500萬美金，那是美股的條件，

台股我建議稅後淨利大於5億元台幣。


The second criterion for investing is to only purchase companies with net profits exceeding NT$500 million. Small companies are often not stable and have a higher risk of failure. It's advised to wait until the company "matures" before investing. Mr. Buffett requires a pre-tax net profit of $75 million as a condition for investing in US stocks. For Taiwanese stocks, I suggest a minimum net profit after tax of NT$500 million.



第五點條件公司的老闆要有誠信，

這是巴菲特最重視的選股條件。

不過誠信兩個字非常抽象，如何衡量？

我拜訪過無數上市櫃公司，從未見過有老闆會說他公司不好的，

再怎麼爛的公司也會說下半年就將轉虧為盈。

既然每個老闆都自誇公司好，那就多買一點股票給我們看，

我設定董監持股至少10%以上才叫做老闆有誠信。


The fifth investment criterion is the integrity of the company's leadership. Buffett attaches great importance to honesty. However, assessing integrity can be difficult, as it is a vague term. In my experience, I have not seen company executives admit to their company's weaknesses. Despite poor performance, they may still assert that they will turn things around in the second half of the year. Given that all executives may inflate their company's success, I require board members to own a minimum of 10% of the company's shares as evidence of their honesty and dedication.


10%是低標，不是高標，因為一家公司的董監事至少7-8個人，

平均一個大股東才1％多一點的股票登記在自己名下，

這是很低的標準。

有些公司會說他的老闆為避遺產稅，拿股票去成立信託，

轉登記在信託基金名下。

這雖然合理，可是總不能都避光光，

鴻海郭台銘也成立股票信託，可是至少還有12%股票登記在名下，

這才算有誠信。


The requirement for board members to hold a minimum of 10% of the company's shares is not considered a strict standard, as many companies have 7-8 directors on their board. Significant shareholders generally hold more than 1% of the company's shares in their own name. This low standard leaves room for interpretation. Some companies may argue that their leaders have established a trust to avoid estate taxes, and the shares are registered in the trust's name. While this is a valid justification, it's not guaranteed that all shares will be transferred to the trust. For example, Terry Guo, CEO of Hon Hai Group, has a trust, but still holds at least 12% of the shares in his own name, which is seen as a display of honesty.



同學按盈再表也會得到這樣結論：

好公司的董監持股都在20% 以上，中碳董監持股35%，大統益66%。

低於10%以下都是爛公司。

這個原則有例外，好公司可是董監持股未超過10%以上，

台積電台達電就是，這兩家外資持股台積電80%，台達電超過70%，

它們已經不是台灣公司，而是外國公司，

張忠謀只是一個經理人而已。

大部份IC設計公司董監持股都沒有超過10%，這昭然若揭了，

IC設計變化劇烈，連老闆也不敢把太多的股票登記在名下，

以後要賣比較方便。


You will observe the following patterns after analyzing On's table: Board members of high-quality companies tend to hold a larger share of the company's stock, such as the 35% held by the board members of China Steel Chemical (1723.TW) or the 66% held by the board members of TTET Union (1232.TW). On the other hand, board members of lower quality companies typically hold less than 10% of the shares. However, there are exceptions to this pattern. For instance, some well-regarded companies have board members who own only 10% or less of the shares, such as TSMC and Delta Electronics. These companies, however, are not considered Taiwanese companies as the majority of their shares are owned by foreign investors. In this case, Morris Chang is just a manager. Furthermore, most IC design companies have board members who own less than 10% of the shares. This is because the IC design industry is constantly changing and even the CEO may not want to register too many shares in their name, making it easier to sell their shares if the company's profits decline.



看誠信問題我們還會注意一點，近年流行公司分割，

把部門獨立出去成另外一家公司，

可是母公司對它的持股常不及60%，

這也是一種形式的掏空，沒有誠信。


With regards to integrity, we will focus on one specific aspect. Spin-offs, which involve the separation of a department into a separate company, have become popular in recent years. However, the parent company's stake in the spin-off is frequently less than 60%, indicating a dilution of integrity.


U公司獨立出去很多家子公司M、N、F，

都是很好的公司，但是U公司持股只有20%。

20多年來U公司股價跌得不成形，

股東都賠得很慘，C先生的身價卻是未減，

他是全世界十大華人收藏古董最多的人，

隨便丟個宋朝碟子出來拍賣就值數10億元，

實在令人不解？


English:The company U spun off several subsidiary companies M, N, and F, which are all successful but U only holds 20% of the shares. Despite a prolonged decline in U's stock price for over 20 years, causing substantial losses for shareholders, Mr. C's wealth remains intact. He is renowned for having the largest collection of antiques among the top ten collectors in China and recently sold a Song Dynasty dish at auction for a value of NT$1 billion. Is it really confusing ?


做這種事情的老闆還有很多，

像威O的紅姨是最離譜，她曾經是台灣的首富，

因為宏OO的股票，它本來是威O的子公司，

威O虧損累累，居然還會成為首富。


There are numerous bosses engaging in unethical behavior. Among them, Aunt W of V company stands out as particularly absurd. She was once the wealthiest individual in Taiwan as the primary shareholder of Company H. However, Company H is a subsidiary of the struggling and loss-making V company. Despite this, Aunt W has managed to maintain her status as the richest person.


另外像華O是O寶獨立出去的，長O是華O分出去的，

母公司持股都只有20-30%。


Furthermore, CC company was spun off from C company, and CW company was spun off from WL company. In these spin-off events, the parent company only retains 20-30% of the shares.


相反的，什麼公司才算是有誠信？

鴻海對富士康的持股高達73%，

當年富士康在香港掛牌時股價狂飆了好幾倍，

同時期鴻海股價也跟著漲，因持股73%可以反應回來。


On the other hand, which company boss is considered to be honest? Hon Hai holds 73% of Foxconn's shares. When Foxconn was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, its stock price saw a substantial increase. During this time, Hon Hai's stock price also rose due to its ownership of 73% of Foxconn's shares.


總之，看公司老闆誠信需注意2點：

第一、董監持股要大於10%。

第二、公司分割出去持股不能低於6成以下。


In conclusion, to assess the integrity of company executives, two factors are considered:

1. Board members must have a minimum ownership of 10% of the company's shares.

2. After a spin-off, the parent company's shareholding ratio must not be below 60%.







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