巴菲特班講稿
感謝ChatGPT大神幫忙翻譯
Thanks to ChatGPT for the translation
我的投資方法只有兩招：
按盈再表跟遵守GDP理論
My investment strategy consists of only two tactics:
checking Michael On's table and following the GDP theory.
The latest version of Michael On's table (click)
選股原則3點：
1. 選高ROE、配得出現金，不會變的公司
2. 便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣
3. 買至少100支股票，不必照顧也不要停損
Three principles for stock selection::
1. We select companies with high return on equity, high dividends payout, and a stable business model.
2. We buy at a cheap price and hold until the stock becomes expensive.
3. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of more than 100 stocks eliminates the need for constant monitoring and loss cutting.
不要預測指數高低點，
依GDP按表操課加減碼就好。
1. 在GDP年增率最高點減碼，但最多賣1/3。
若持股比例60%，可降至40%。
2. 儘量等到GDP低點再買股票
Do not predict the highs and lows of the index.
Instead, adjust your holdings based on the GDP.
1. Reduce your holdings at the peak of GDP growth rate, but sell at most one-third.
If your holding proportion is 60%, you can reduce it to 40%.
2. Wait to buy most stocks when GDP is at its lowest point.
我的方法可以幫助您的投資穩定趨向於15%年報酬率，
只要50年平均20%就能和巴菲特一樣成為世界首富
My method promises a stable 15% annual return rate, and the demonstration provides the best evidence.
By achieving an average annual return of 20% over 50 years, you have the potential to attain a level of wealth comparable to that of Warren Buffett.
每年安穩賺15%就有自信押身家長抱：
1. 敢押身家，本金滾起來才會大
2. 才願意長期一直擺著，不跑來跑去，這樣就有複利效果
本金大 x 複利長 ＝ 有錢人
Achieving a 15% annual return gives you the confidence to invest a significant portion of your wealth for the long term.
1. Be bold in investing the majority of your wealth to maximize your principal.
2. Emphasize generating compound interest by abstaining from speculative trading.
Large principal x long compound interest = billionaire
A large principal combined with sustained compound interest can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time.
請每天來討論區
跟單
Participate in daily discussion forums and follow what we do.
台股若找不到100檔可好很久的公司，請來投資全世界。
把家族財產分散到世界級好公司最安全而且可大可久，比房地產有保障。
If you cannot find 100 long-term companies in Taiwan’s stocks, please come to invest globally.
Diversifying your property to world-class companies is the safest and growing, more secure than real estate.
把巴菲特神功傳承下去，
後代子孫將不愁吃穿，不用擔心工作和學業成績，
可以全力發展自己的興趣，無憂無慮過一輩子。
By carrying on Warren Buffett's remarkable investment skills, your future generations will be liberated from concerns about their job or academic performance. This will empower them to wholeheartedly pursue their interests and embrace a lifetime of peace and contentment.
學佛最大的障礙是拿不掉我執，
不能百分之百按著佛祖教導的正法修行。
誤以為自己修正的方法較快，摻雜的邪門歪道更好。
學習態度輕忽，初一十五才來廟裡燒香。
上述行為都讓您與佛無緣，無法成為有錢人。
請每天來巴班討論區，跟單。
心有罫礙多唸講稿！
The largest hindrance in studying Buddhism is dispelling entrenched misconceptions and ensuring strict adherence to the teachings of Buddha. Some individuals mistakenly believe that their modified approach is quicker or that blending different ideologies is more effective. They have a careless attitude towards learning and only visit the temple sporadically. These actions will prevent one from reaching enlightenment and will not lead to wealth.
Engage in daily forum discussions and follow our lead to gain insights and strategies. If you encounter obstacles, refer back to the written material frequently for guidance.
同學問為何還要來上這堂課？
上課之前有人已先看過我的書，為何還要來上這堂課？
因為書上有些東西可能看得不是很懂，
投資時也有許多問題產生，
所以就得來上這堂課。
Why do we still attend this class even though we've read the book beforehand?" asked some classmates. "Some things in the book may not be fully understood and there are also many questions that come up during the investment process, so that's why we need to attend this class.
學投資跟學開車一樣，
光看書等於看一本教練手冊，
單看教練手冊不能學會開車，
接下來就得到教練場聽教練講解。
這堂課就像教練場一樣，
會把所有關於投資的道理跟大家講清楚，
同學只要把上課內容搞清楚就足以應付股市各種狀況。
在上課過程中歡迎隨時舉手發問！
Investing is similar to learning how to drive.
Reading a book on investing is like reading a driving manual; just as reading a manual alone won't make you a proficient driver, reading a book on investing won't make you an expert.
This class acts as a driving lesson, with the instructor clearly explaining all the principles of investing.
With a thorough understanding of the class material, you will be prepared to navigate various situations in the stock market.
Feel free to ask questions at any time during the class !
上完課之後就要開車上路，路上的狀況更複雜，
我們希望仍然跟同學保持聯絡。
在投資上有任何問題歡迎隨時打電話給我，
或者到討論區來一起討論。
這堂課永久免費保固，歡迎再來回鍋，
只要事先寫伊媚兒報名即可。
After finishing class, we'll hit the road, which is becoming increasingly complex. Nevertheless, we hope to stay connected with our classmates. If you have any questions regarding investments, don't hesitate to give me a call, or join us in the discussion forum for a group discussion. This course comes with a permanent, free guarantee, and you're welcome to revisit as long as you send an email to register in advance.
股市多空跟總體經濟循環是一致的，
景氣循環大概3到5年一個循環，一個循環指一上一下。
The bull market and bear market are synchronized with the economic cycle, which lasts approximately 3 to 5 years and encompasses one cycle of fluctuation, including a rise and fall.
經過2次循環亦即至少5年的時間才能夠體會，
過程中一群志同道合的人共同研究比較容易進入狀況。
It takes at least 2 cycles, or 5 years, for one to fully understand the stock market. In this process, it's easier for a group of people with shared beliefs to learn and understand the market together.
這幾年觀察同學做投資差異很大，本班有一位傑出校友凱元，
他是離投資很遠的人，在鐵工廠上班，一開始錢不多。
2008年5,000多點時來上課，知道那是低點就買滿股票，
重點是他懂得一路抱，抱到高點9,800減碼，
算一算了賺了2倍。
第二次在2012年初自己明白那是低點了，
他選的股票相當不錯，跟我推薦美利達、豐泰的表現都十分亮眼。
In recent years, I have observed significant differences in my students' investment behavior. One standout student is Kaiyuen, who started as a beginner investor. He previously worked in a steel factory and had limited funds. In 2008, he took my course when the stock market index was at 5,000 points, and he saw it as a low point to invest. He held onto his stocks for a long time, and when the index reached its peak at 9,800 points, he reduced his position, thereby doubling his investment. In early 2012, he once again recognized a low point and invested in stocks such as Merida Bikes (9914.TW) and Feng Tay (9910.TW), which turned out to perform well.
凱元2008年來找我時錢不多，
曾跟我說「一個人資產有 1 千萬元就是有錢人，
對他而言是遙不可及的夢。」
最近他說已經離1千萬不遠了，
用現代術語來講，以前千萬元是GPS上的小黑點，
現在則看到車尾燈。
When Kaiyuen came to see me in 2008, he didn't have much money. He told me, For someone with a net worth of ten million dollars, they are considered wealthy, a far-off aspiration for him. However, he recently informed me that he is nearing the ten million mark. To put it in contemporary terms, ten million dollars was once a speck on the GPS map, but now it is within reach, visible like a set of taillights.
有人問我如何衡量一個人是否學會巴菲特神功？
主要看兩點：若買的股票跟我的入圍名單長得很像，
又懂得在股價便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣。
做到這兩點就算學會巴菲特神功。
When asked how to determine if someone has learned the magic of Buffett, I use two criteria: first, whether the stocks they have acquired align with my personal watch list, and second, if they consistently follow the strategy of buying stocks at a cheap price and selling when the price is expensive. Adhering to these methods is a clear indication of a successful application of Buffett's teachings.
另外一位同學，凱元的同事，2011年9,000多點來上課，
我警告高點到了應當減碼，
他卻不聽仍去買了遊戲股和太陽能股，
因此賠了錢就對投資喪失信心。
在真的低點來臨，2012年初7,000點，反而不敢買股票。
A colleague of Kaiyuen, another student, came to class at more than 9,000 points in 2011. I advised him that the market was approaching its peak and it was time to sell. However, he ignored my warning and invested in video game and solar energy stocks instead. Unfortunately, this resulted in financial loss and eroded his confidence in investing. When the market declined to 7,000 points in 2012, he became too apprehensive to invest in stocks again.
凱元非常熱心一直拉著同事進場，還挑了5檔股票給他參考，
可是同事就是不敢買。
當時凱元連續打了5通電話問我？
我跟他說「GDP低點到了應該進場買股票，」同事不敢買。
我說「把股價圖攤開給他看，當時很多股票未漲，」還是不買。
我說「叫他買個3分之一，反正持股前3分之一亂買亂賣
都沒關係，」同事還是不敢。
最後只好說「把他的頭壓著，叫他一定要買、一定要買」，
後來同事總算買了，可是抱不到三天就賣掉了。
凱元問要如何才能讓他的同事敢買股票而且又願意抱著久？
我雙手一攤「不要理他了，很顯然他跟佛無緣，跟巴菲特無緣！」
Kaiyuen was eager to encourage his colleague to invest in stocks and even provided five specific stock tips, but his colleague was too scared to make the investment. Kaiyuen sought my advice several times. I advised that during a period of low GDP, it was a good time to invest in stocks, but the colleague was still wary. I recommended showing the colleague a stock price chart and explaining that many stocks hadn't risen yet, but the colleague remained hesitant. I encouraged the colleague to invest a third of their funds, emphasizing that the outcome of the first third doesn't matter, but the colleague was still uninterested. In the end, I told Kaiyuen to "Press his head to the desk and tell him to buy, to buy." and the colleague eventually invested, but sold the stocks after just three days. Kaiyuen asked me for advice on how to help his colleague overcome their fear and hold the stocks for a longer period. I shrugged my hands in frustration and said, "Forget about it, it's clear that the colleague has missed his chance with Buddha and missed the opportunity to learn from Mr. Buffett."
為何他的同事學巴菲特會失敗？
原因在上完課之後的第一次沒跟著照做，
9,000點我喊減碼，他未照做，未體會出股價的道理。
建議同學上課後的第一次不管願不願意
至少撥一半資金跟我們做做看。
現在來到1萬多點，更貴了，請持股勿超過一半，
跟著做一次，體會出股價道理，就容易學會神功。
Why did his colleague fail to learn the Buffett method? The reason is that he didn't follow my instructions after the class. I called to sell at 9,000, but he didn't, thus he was unable to fully comprehend the stock price concepts. My suggestion is that after the class, one should allocate at least half of their available funds towards investing with me, regardless of their personal preferences. The index currently stands at around 10,000 points, making the stock even more costly. It's not advisable to hold more than half of one's funds in stock. By following my lead just once, they will easily understand the principles of stock pricing.
本堂課會從最基本開始教，不用擔心完全沒概念，
上課過程有聽不懂的地方就舉手，
我即會停下來讓同學聽到懂為止。
只要給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓同學的投資思想跟行為跟巴菲特一樣。
即便是完全一竅不通的人也會玩全世界的股票，
只要給我2天的時間。
This course starts from the basics, so don't be concerned if you are a newcomer. If you have any questions during class, simply raise your hand and I will clarify until you fully understand. In just two days, I will transform you into a Buffett by imparting Mr. Buffett's investment strategies and approaches. Even individuals with no prior knowledge can learn to invest globally. Just give me two days.
- 講稿 1/21：歡迎 (Lecture 1/21 Welcome)
- 講稿 2/21：知與不知 (Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable)
- 講稿 3/21：巴六點 (Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria)
- 講稿 4/21：物美價廉 (Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine)
- 講稿 5/21：還原股價 (Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price)
- 講稿 6/21：高ROE (Lecture 6/21 High ROE)
- 講稿 7/21：配得出現金 (Lecture 7/21 High dividends)
- 講稿 8/21：會計 (Lecture 8/21 Accounting)
- 講稿 9/21：地雷股 (Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks)
- 講稿 10/21：他們通通是錯的 (Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong)
- 講稿 11/21：不會變的公司 (Lecture 11/22 Durable)
- 講稿 12/21：多種果樹 (Lecture 12/21 Diversification)
- 講稿 13/21：IRR (Lecture 13/21 IRR)
- 講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害 (Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield)
- 講稿15/21：GDP理論 (Lecture 15/21 GDP Theory)
- 講稿 16/21：全世界都成立 (Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable)
- 講稿17/21：不要想太多 (Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much)
- 講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始 (Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy)
- 講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操 (Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds)
- 講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板 (Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw)
- 講稿 21/21：技術分析 (Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis)
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